Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[paweather]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Global ensembles overnight continued to ramp up snow amounts for week 2 through day 16.

We should at least have chances for Winter weather tracking starting next week & beyond.

I don’t want to have to chase, never did, but this year is the year I would do it. Hope not.

[Itstrainingtime]

The second blizzard in 1978 was in February, that storm dropped another 16" at my house. That was an epic east coast bomb  that obliterated New England. I think Philly did well with that one, while the one in January targeted the mountain regions. 1978 was the first big winter in my lifetime, and outside of the blizzard of 1983 (I was a senior in high school) was the only real winter excitement during my entire childhood. Those were some very lean years...big snows when I was a kid were of the 3-5" variety most winters. 

I'm done reminiscing.   

[Mount Joy Snowman]

48 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

1977-78. I had 71" that winter in Manor Township. That winter featured a true blizzard in late January that was the 3rd storm to hit in 7 days. My records (I was 13 at the time) was 11" on 1-13 followed by 7" on 1/16 and then the blizzard dropped 18" on 1/20. My notes indicate that we had a drift measuring nearly 10' high in our driveway the morning of 1/21 and had to have the township's V-plow dig us out. 

Edit: I compiled those notes with the help of my late father - they should be pretty darn accurate, or at least as accurate as 13 year old weather freak could be.   

The blizzard of 1978 was very unique in that snow totals were highest in NW PA and lowest in Philly. Uncommon for huge east coast storms. 

I can't love this post enough.  It's so cool that you have records going back that far and developed your love of weather early on with the help of your father.  Great stuff.

[Itstrainingtime]

12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I can't love this post enough.  It's so cool that you have records going back that far and developed your love of weather early on with the help of your father.  Great stuff.

Thank you! 

Being a snow hound/weather nerd was obviously a lot different when I was growing up. I mostly relied on TV/radio forecasts, NOAA weather radio and watching Weather World. Even as a kid I was keen in picking up on clues as to whether or not it was time to get excited. Elliott Abrams was my go-to radio guy, Weather World was the authority on TV. I'm such a geek, I even remember the names of the NOAA radio guys I listened to 45 years ago...Bob Kurl was my favorite - "at 9pm, NOAA weather radar indicates a rapidly expanding area of snow...the snow extends from central PA down into Central VA, and is moving slowly to the northeast at 10mph." At that, I would be literally dancing through the house. That was the only "visual" that I had. On school nights, I would tuck my little transistor radio in bed with me and once my parents were asleep I would turn that baby on and listen to overnight updates on WSBA (AccuWeather) while getting out of bed multiple times and turning on the floodlight to see if snow had arrived yet. I was like this until...well, when I was...60.

Wait. That's how old I am now.   
 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

I remember back in the late 70s we had a snowstorm on a Monday,Wednesday and Friday the same week. I don't remember what month it was. It was either January or February. Each storm dumped a foot each time. I remember Penndot was working around the clock that whole week plowing. Would be nice to see that again.

As Trainer alluded to the other day, 2010 twin blizz's were rather epic (weather wise) for us.  

The second storm was when my kid and I hit culvert w/ snowmobile and broke is femur which led to emergency surgery....no so epic.  

Looking forward to the next few weeks.  Could be fun.  

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

1977-78. I had 71" that winter in Manor Township. That winter featured a true blizzard in late January that was the 3rd storm to hit in 7 days. My records (I was 13 at the time) was 11" on 1-13 followed by 7" on 1/16 and then the blizzard dropped 18" on 1/20. My notes indicate that we had a drift measuring nearly 10' high in our driveway the morning of 1/21 and had to have the township's V-plow dig us out. 

Edit: I compiled those notes with the help of my late father - they should be pretty darn accurate, or at least as accurate as 13 year old weather freak could be.   

The blizzard of 1978 was very unique in that snow totals were highest in NW PA and lowest in Philly. Uncommon for huge east coast storms. 

Its been so long since weve seen a triple phaser comin outta the gulf w/ the PV diving in.  I'd give body parts to see that.  

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The second blizzard in 1978 was in February, that storm dropped another 16" at my house. That was an epic east coast bomb  that obliterated New England. I think Philly did well with that one, while the one in January targeted the mountain regions. 1978 was the first big winter in my lifetime, and outside of the blizzard of 1983 (I was a senior in high school) was the only real winter excitement during my entire childhood. Those were some very lean years...big snows when I was a kid were of the 3-5" variety most winters. 

I'm done reminiscing.   

No need to stop.  Its all we have to talk about winter wise right now.  Maybe by this weekend if somethin pops, you can save the stories for another boring stretch.  

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thank you! 

Being a snow hound/weather nerd was obviously a lot different when I was growing up. I mostly relied on TV/radio forecasts, NOAA weather radio and watching Weather World. Even as a kid I was keen in picking up on clues as to whether or not it was time to get excited. Elliott Abrams was my go-to radio guy, Weather World was the authority on TV. I'm such a geek, I even remember the names of the NOAA radio guys I listened to 45 years ago...Bob Kurl was my favorite - "at 9pm, NOAA weather radar indicates a rapidly expanding area of snow...the snow extends from central PA down into Central VA, and is moving slowly to the northeast at 10mph." At that, I would be literally dancing through the house. That was the only "visual" that I had. On school nights, I would tuck my little transistor radio in bed with me and once my parents were asleep I would turn that baby on and listen to overnight updates on WSBA (AccuWeather) while getting out of bed multiple times and turning on the floodlight to see if snow had arrived yet. I was like this until...well, when I was...60.

Wait. That's how old I am now.   
 

Down here in Lanco, I105 was THE source for "OPERATION SNOWFLAKE".  

My brother and I would SIT on our stereo/record player (yes they were THAT big back in our time) and look out the window watching flakes fall and waiting for the "we have updates" between classic country songs.  They did it every 15 min.  We also had our little NOAA radio also going in background giving storm updates. Our channel was at 162.55 Megahertz.

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Its been so long since weve seen a triple phaser comin outta the gulf w/ the PV diving in.  I'd give body parts to see that.  

We got spoiled by so many big daddy storms over the past 15-20 years that a lot of younger snow freaks think it's much more common than what it really is. Having said that, you're right. It seems like forever since a true Miller A came lumbering up out of the Gulf and headed for the benchmark. I think we're due for that...

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Down here in Lanco, I105 was THE source for "OPERATION SNOWFLAKE".  

My brother and I would SIT on our stereo/record player (yes they were THAT big back in our time) and look out the window watching flakes fall and waiting for the "we have updates" between classic country songs.  They did it every 15 min.  We also had our little NOAA radio also going in background giving storm updates. Our channel was at 162.55 Megahertz.

WSBA also had Operation Snowflake! And yes, I would wait anxiously when the new update would come on and the guy would say "we have a long list of schools that were previously delayed that have now decided to close." I used to get mad, Octorara was always the first to close followed by Pequea Valley. Of course, as an adult, it's easy to understand why they were closed. Fortunately, Penn Manor was "rural enough" that we closed more often than not. I got really fired up when Hempfield closed and Penn Manor didn't. 

Stupid Hempfield. Yeah @Mount Joy Snowman I'm looking at you right now.   

 

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

WSBA also had Operation Snowflake! And yes, I would wait anxiously when the new update would come on and the guy would say "we have a long list of schools that were previously delayed that have now decided to close." I used to get mad, Octorara was always the first to close followed by Pequea Valley. Of course, as an adult, it's easy to understand why they were closed. Fortunately, Penn Manor was "rural enough" that we closed more often than not. I got really fired up when Hempfield closed and Penn Manor didn't. 

Stupid Hempfield. Yeah @Mount Joy Snowman I'm looking at you right now.   

 

Now you got me thinking, maybe it was OPERATION ALERT for I105.  

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

WSBA also had Operation Snowflake! And yes, I would wait anxiously when the new update would come on and the guy would say "we have a long list of schools that were previously delayed that have now decided to close." I used to get mad, Octorara was always the first to close followed by Pequea Valley. Of course, as an adult, it's easy to understand why they were closed. Fortunately, Penn Manor was "rural enough" that we closed more often than not. I got really fired up when Hempfield closed and Penn Manor didn't. 

Stupid Hempfield. Yeah @Mount Joy Snowman I'm looking at you right now.   

 

Lol.  this brings back good memories, but Ephrata (my school district) was often the last to cave.  I think they used the same playbook as CTP is often accused of.  We'd be lit up because everyone around us was closing, and we were stuck at 2hr delay.  

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Lol.  this brings back good memories, but Ephrata (my school district) was often the last to cave.  I think they used the same playbook as CTP is often accused of.  We'd be lit up because everyone around us was closing, and we were stuck at 2hr delay.  

Well that sucked. I always assumed that Lancaster City and Columbia Borough were the last 2 districts to close, but I didn't pay attention that super close. 

[pasnownut]

After the walk down memory lane.....

Well looky at Z Icon.  Staring the nooners off w/ a bang.  

[pasnownut]

nooner GFS for 1/15-16 event keeps the progressive look and is a scooter OTS.  Toggle back through last few runs and theres a tad of variability....

[paweather]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thank you! 

Being a snow hound/weather nerd was obviously a lot different when I was growing up. I mostly relied on TV/radio forecasts, NOAA weather radio and watching Weather World. Even as a kid I was keen in picking up on clues as to whether or not it was time to get excited. Elliott Abrams was my go-to radio guy, Weather World was the authority on TV. I'm such a geek, I even remember the names of the NOAA radio guys I listened to 45 years ago...Bob Kurl was my favorite - "at 9pm, NOAA weather radar indicates a rapidly expanding area of snow...the snow extends from central PA down into Central VA, and is moving slowly to the northeast at 10mph." At that, I would be literally dancing through the house. That was the only "visual" that I had. On school nights, I would tuck my little transistor radio in bed with me and once my parents were asleep I would turn that baby on and listen to overnight updates on WSBA (AccuWeather) while getting out of bed multiple times and turning on the floodlight to see if snow had arrived yet. I was like this until...well, when I was...60.

Wait. That's how old I am now.   
 

Weather world was the best back in the day. Abram’s, JB, Paul Knight, Fred Gadomiski(sp) and others it is nowhere close to that today. Tuned in every night and then on Fridays with the long range outlooks. Loved it! I had JB recognize me on WLBR radio at one point. The good ole days!

[anotherman]

nooner GFS for 1/15-16 event keeps the progressive look and is a scooter OTS.  Toggle back through last few runs and theres a tad of variability....

It’s one to watch. So close.

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, anotherman said:

It’s one to watch. So close.

If that one doesnt hit, then the one right on it's heels looks like something ready to pop.  Timing/spacing is critical w/ so many vorts in the chute.  Could be lotsa nail biting for us starved ones down here.  Just seeing the pattern evolution and amount of chances, I'm happy at that...for now.

[pasnownut]

Incoming snowmageddon at 348  GFS.  

You wanna look....ya know ya do.

[mahantango#1]

What a beautiful day to work in the yard. Sunshine and no wind! 48 here.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

39 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

If that one doesnt hit, then the one right on it's heels looks like something ready to pop.  Timing/spacing is critical w/ so many vorts in the chute.  Could be lotsa nail biting for us starved ones down here.  Just seeing the pattern evolution and amount of chances, I'm happy at that...for now.

All the models show plenty of possibilities "rounding the bend" and that is good enough for me.  As you've said, we'll have stuff to track.  Whether any of it hits the LSV or not, only time will tell.

[pasnownut]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

All the models show plenty of possibilities "rounding the bend" and that is good enough for me.  As you've said, we'll have stuff to track.  Whether any of it hits the LSV or not, only time will tell.

Yep.  Looks like we'll be transitioning to a busy time and while the chances look to be there, its going to be really into short term till the subtleties get sorted out, as that will make notable difference in backyard, and on perty snow maps.  

[Festus]

One nice thing coming out of a relatively cold pattern is a day like today feels like 75 where 3 months ago it would have felt like 45.

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, Festus said:

One nice thing coming out of a relatively cold pattern is a day like today feels like 75 where 3 months ago it would have felt like 45.

was outside for a couple minutes to get somethin from my car and the word "balmy" came to mind.  

[ChescoWx]

Some folks had asked me to perform an analysis of both the Winter and Summer Average Temperature by Complete Decades for just here in Chester County from the 1900's thru the 2010's. You will see the very cyclical nature of our warming and cooling patterns. Overall, we have seen some slight warming of winters and conversely some cooling of our summers across Chester County PA. The warmest decade for both summers and winters was way back in the 1930's. Of note so far here in the partial decade of the 2020's we are so far running as the warmest winter decade since the 1930's!! However, last winter was the coldest winter in 10 years and we are off to a colder than normal start to this winter so we will wait and see if this is the start of the next cooling trend across the County. These are also updated on the http://www.chescowx.com website. Let me know if you have any questions.

[pasnownut]

Euro is trolling hard with the southern sliders and lobes of energy diving south that you can see the sparks getting close to the fuel down south.  Timing issues a plenty, but something to watch. 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Euro is trolling hard with the southern sliders and lobes of energy diving south that you can see the sparks getting close to the fuel down south.  Timing issues a plenty, but something to watch. 

 

Lots of chances on the 12z Euro as you mentioned. This run didn’t fully develop any healthy systems, but lots of nickels & dimes verbatim. That being said, they added up. The run still produced 4 to 6 inches of snow for the Susquehanna Valley by day 15.

Lots of time, but maybe a few opportunities in the next couple of weeks.

[canderson]

5 hours ago, pasnownut said:

was outside for a couple minutes to get somethin from my car and the word "balmy" came to mind.  

Wife said the same thing on our walk tonight 

[Blizzard of 93]

So much potential on the 0z GFS…

[Blizzard of 93]

 

0z Euro for the 18th.