Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Jns2183]

Latest prediction is for about 0.3-0.5" of sleet and 0.15 of freezing rain for Harrisburg

Cold front has past, skies have cleared and a breezy north wind is pushing cold air in

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[anotherman]

MU giddy over "torchmas" today.

What an idiot.

[canderson]

Tomorrow to me now looks more like an annoyance than a winter major issue for the HBG. Some sleet - maybe .5” - and maybe a little zr at the end late Friday night. And perhaps fine until 4-5 pm. 

[Jns2183]

Tomorrow to me now looks more like an annoyance than a winter major issue for the HBG. Some sleet - maybe .5” - and maybe a little zr at the end late Friday night. And perhaps fine until 4-5 pm. 

If we get above .10 it's going to be a major issue

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[Blizzard of 93]

7 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

If we get above .10 it's going to be a major issue

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Exactly, we are not getting near freezing tomorrow. Conditions won’t improve until Saturday am.

18z Euro says majority is freezing rain.

18z GFS says majority is sleet for us.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Exactly, we are not getting near freezing tomorrow. Conditions won’t improve until Saturday am.

18z Euro says majority is freezing rain.

18z GFS says majority is sleet for us.

Temps on both Euro & GFS are still in the 20s for most of us tomorrow early evening at 7 pm.

[Ruin]

23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Exactly, we are not getting near freezing tomorrow. Conditions won’t improve until Saturday am.

18z Euro says majority is freezing rain.

18z GFS says majority is sleet for us.

With the latest trends of guidance and future radar.And it's shown to be a lot drier than what is modeled, we'll have to wait.And see

[canderson]

36 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

If we get above .10 it's going to be a major issue

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Absolutely, but I don’t think we get much zr accretion - it’s pretty rare here and kinda hard to do so I lean sleet or plain rain too heavy to freeze on contact.  
 

The wild card is kt kf really does go dry with precip - if so then zr is in the cards with light rates. 

[HBGCPA10]

I think anything that occurs during the day in Harrisburg is going to have a hard time accumulating on the roads especially if they pre-treat. My weather station hasn't been below freezing since the morning of Dec 22. 

[Jns2183]

With the latest trends of guidance and future radar.And it's shown to be a lot drier than what is modeled, we'll have to wait.And see

Which models? The NAM has been the only one with funky high run to run variability. The Euro, GFS, HRRR have been steady as a rock with 0.30-0.50". Further a drier solution causes even more issues more likely due to a higher probability of it falling as freezing rain, at a rate that has maximum accretion unfortunately enough people are going to convince themselves it's not a big deal and end up with a totaled car, injuries, and putting unexcusable strain and risk on first responders.

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[Jns2183]

I think anything that occurs during the day in Harrisburg is going to have a hard time accumulating on the roads especially if they pre-treat. My weather station hasn't been below freezing since the morning of Dec 22. 

4 to 10pm is mostly after sun set

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[mahantango#1]

35 here with a stiff breeze.

[Jns2183]

Absolutely, but I don’t think we get much zr accretion - it’s pretty rare here and kinda hard to do so I lean sleet or plain rain too heavy to freeze on contact.  
 
The wild card is kt kf really does go dry with precip - if so then zr is in the cards with light rates. 

The one thing is with a sleet base it's much easier to freeze on contact

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[Blizzard of 93]

15 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The one thing is with a sleet base it's much easier to freeze on contact

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I’m expecting a disaster on the roads. Lots of people off of work will be out shopping, using restaurant gift cards & continuing holiday get togethers. Too many people with the “it’s not so bad” attitude could be involved in holiday fender benders.

[Jns2183]

I’m expecting a disaster on the roads. Lots of people off of work will be out shopping, using restaurant gift cards & continuing holiday get togethers. Too many people with the “it’s not so bad” attitude could be involved in holiday fender benders.

I'm going into work 2 hours early just so I can be done before 3 and get home. I have no doubt tomorrow night the roads will be full of the exact people that you don't want to meet. The ones that thing because they have an SUV that ice doesn't effect them, as they try to text and change Spotify while driving making them into lethal weapons in their tanks. They then will post to social media how it's the weather mans fault they wrecked. Last year I saw a lady complaining that they need to shut down all the roads so that there is no social pressure to go out, and in the comments it came out she was playing a game while driving as well as attempting to do makeup and that was the reason for the wreck moreso than the 2" of snow. Her response: "blocked!"

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[canderson]

Costco is supposed to deliver a TV between 245-445 … I hope it happens because bowl games are here. 

[Jns2183]

Costco is supposed to deliver a TV between 245-445 … I hike it happens because bowl games are here. 

I wish the storm was delayed 12 hours so the Pinstripe bowl would become legendary

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[Ruin]

did we get downgraded? wwa is now on the alerts now winter storm watch? why does it start at 7am heard we wont get anything till 2-4pm 

 

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From noon Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

did we get downgraded? wwa is now on the alerts now winter storm watch? why does it start at 7am heard we wont get anything till 2-4pm 

 

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From noon Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

Nothing is downgraded it is because we’re not getting 5” plus of snow. It is a sleet and FRZ fest.

[WmsptWx]

5 minutes ago, Ruin said:

did we get downgraded? wwa is now on the alerts now winter storm watch? why does it start at 7am heard we wont get anything till 2-4pm 

 

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From noon Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

Technically, no. WSW is a temporary designation to await official level of advisory. 

 

WWA feels like a downgrade, but it's not. 

 

I do think this is going to be less of an event than we thought it would be just yesterday.

[Ruin]

6 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Technically, no. WSW is a temporary designation to await official level of advisory. 

 

WWA feels like a downgrade, but it's not. 

 

I do think this is going to be less of an event than we thought it would be just yesterday.

hmmm ok ty I just could of sworn late last night it said wsw 

[Ruin]

11 minutes ago, paweather said:

Nothing is downgraded it is because we’re not getting 5” plus of snow. It is a sleet and FRZ fest.

yeah but a frz rain sleet event wouldnt the criteria be less for a wsw cause half a inch of frz rain is hell tho sleet isnt to bad imo vs frz rain you can at least walk and drive on sleet 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

49 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I wish the storm was delayed 12 hours so the Pinstripe bowl would become legendary

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Heck yeah, although up that way it may linger until darn near game time or at the very least the early morning hours on Saturday. Either way, should be a winter scene and very cold conditions. 

[mahantango#1]

I wonder if the forecast will change again till tomorrow morning?

[paweather]

8 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I wonder if the forecast will change again till tomorrow morning?

Change to what? 

[mahantango#1]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Change to what? 

To flurries and sprinkles.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said:

To flurries and sprinkles.

IMO I don’t think so. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said:

To flurries and sprinkles.

Lol, with temps in the 20s & at least .3 of precipitation on the way…?

Maybe it will be 80 tomorrow & we can jump in a swimming pool too?

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP has no changes & just reissued this in the last hour…

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
951 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-261800-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.251226T1700Z-251227T1200Z/
Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-
Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Williamsport, Mifflintown, Pottsville,
Lock Haven, Newport, York, Danville, Lebanon, State College,
Altoona, Emporium, Berwick, Coudersport, Philipsburg, Wellsboro,
Huntingdon, Chambersburg, Lewisburg, Mansfield, Carlisle,
Lancaster, Lewistown, Shamokin, Sunbury, Hershey, Bloomsburg,
Gettysburg, Mount Union, Bedford, Trout Run, Laporte, Harrisburg,
Renovo, Selinsgrove, and McConnellsburg
951 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7
AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two
  tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Most of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the Friday evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Much of the precipitation could fall as
  sleet. Sleet and freezing rain can both be dangerous, especially
  on bridges and sidewalks. They can also weigh down tree limbs and
  power lines. Power outages are possible.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU giddy over "torchmas" today.

Whoever runs the current MU weather account definitely has a "sunny and 75" bias. Eric Horst was good at keeping the social media accounts neutral during his time.