Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Jns2183]

Latest prediction is for about 0.3-0.5" of sleet and 0.15 of freezing rain for Harrisburg

Cold front has past, skies have cleared and a breezy north wind is pushing cold air in

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[anotherman]

MU giddy over "torchmas" today.

What an idiot.

[canderson]

Tomorrow to me now looks more like an annoyance than a winter major issue for the HBG. Some sleet - maybe .5” - and maybe a little zr at the end late Friday night. And perhaps fine until 4-5 pm. 

[Jns2183]

Tomorrow to me now looks more like an annoyance than a winter major issue for the HBG. Some sleet - maybe .5” - and maybe a little zr at the end late Friday night. And perhaps fine until 4-5 pm. 

If we get above .10 it's going to be a major issue

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[Blizzard of 93]

7 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

If we get above .10 it's going to be a major issue

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Exactly, we are not getting near freezing tomorrow. Conditions won’t improve until Saturday am.

18z Euro says majority is freezing rain.

18z GFS says majority is sleet for us.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Exactly, we are not getting near freezing tomorrow. Conditions won’t improve until Saturday am.

18z Euro says majority is freezing rain.

18z GFS says majority is sleet for us.

Temps on both Euro & GFS are still in the 20s for most of us tomorrow early evening at 7 pm.

[Ruin]

23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Exactly, we are not getting near freezing tomorrow. Conditions won’t improve until Saturday am.

18z Euro says majority is freezing rain.

18z GFS says majority is sleet for us.

With the latest trends of guidance and future radar.And it's shown to be a lot drier than what is modeled, we'll have to wait.And see

[canderson]

36 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

If we get above .10 it's going to be a major issue

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Absolutely, but I don’t think we get much zr accretion - it’s pretty rare here and kinda hard to do so I lean sleet or plain rain too heavy to freeze on contact.  
 

The wild card is kt kf really does go dry with precip - if so then zr is in the cards with light rates. 

[HBGCPA10]

I think anything that occurs during the day in Harrisburg is going to have a hard time accumulating on the roads especially if they pre-treat. My weather station hasn't been below freezing since the morning of Dec 22. 

[Jns2183]

With the latest trends of guidance and future radar.And it's shown to be a lot drier than what is modeled, we'll have to wait.And see

Which models? The NAM has been the only one with funky high run to run variability. The Euro, GFS, HRRR have been steady as a rock with 0.30-0.50". Further a drier solution causes even more issues more likely due to a higher probability of it falling as freezing rain, at a rate that has maximum accretion unfortunately enough people are going to convince themselves it's not a big deal and end up with a totaled car, injuries, and putting unexcusable strain and risk on first responders.

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[Jns2183]

I think anything that occurs during the day in Harrisburg is going to have a hard time accumulating on the roads especially if they pre-treat. My weather station hasn't been below freezing since the morning of Dec 22. 

4 to 10pm is mostly after sun set

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[mahantango#1]

35 here with a stiff breeze.

[Jns2183]

Absolutely, but I don’t think we get much zr accretion - it’s pretty rare here and kinda hard to do so I lean sleet or plain rain too heavy to freeze on contact.  
 
The wild card is kt kf really does go dry with precip - if so then zr is in the cards with light rates. 

The one thing is with a sleet base it's much easier to freeze on contact

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[Blizzard of 93]

15 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The one thing is with a sleet base it's much easier to freeze on contact

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I’m expecting a disaster on the roads. Lots of people off of work will be out shopping, using restaurant gift cards & continuing holiday get togethers. Too many people with the “it’s not so bad” attitude could be involved in holiday fender benders.