Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[MAG5035]

We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will likely focus snow potential in northern PA and the Laurels with downsloping off of the mountains and probably surface temp issues. Another period of significant LES/upslope likely ensues in the aforementioned focus area of snow potential after the passage of the low. 

More pieces of energy along this fast northern branch dominated flow are in the pipeline behind this, with all major models at 12z today focusing more towards Sunday for a more notable wave traversing PA with a widespread snowfall. Much colder air looks to be in PA for this weekend vs Wednesday. Still some potential light snowfall Friday night as well showing on the Euro. All these waves will be enforcing a continued regime of much below normal temperatures. 

[canderson]

It’s cold today - 26 at 2:20 here. 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s cold today - 26 at 2:20 here. 

Sure is! I'm currently at 26.2/10 with a real feel of 13. 

[AccuChris]

25° presently in Lebanon


.

[Ruin]

What's with the last storm's clouds?Not moving out.It's been like three days now and the clouds are still sticking around

[Itstrainingtime]

19 minutes ago, Ruin said:

What's with the last storm's clouds?Not moving out.It's been like three days now and the clouds are still sticking around

There is another system moving through the mid-Atlantic today with more snow - beautiful winter scene in central VA right now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgkdREYOfw0

 

[ChescoWx]

You can tell things have slowed down with my business as we near the holidays....plenty of time for some updated analysis!

Below are the Top 10 snowstorms since January 1, 2020 here in East Nantmeal Township. We have had 5 storms greater than 6 inches but only 2 storms that have exceeded 10" or more.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Let’s go!!!! The Winter thread is here!

[Blizzard of 93]

18z GFS delivered the chance of a CTP special on Saturday night.

[Ruin]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

There is another system moving through the mid-Atlantic today with more snow - beautiful winter scene in central VA right now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgkdREYOfw0

 

Hmmm ok still puzzled why it was clouds all weekend then.

[AccuChris]

18z GFS long range eye candy says Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night


.

[Ruin]

47 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

18z GFS long range eye candy says Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night


.

This would be an amazing Christmas gift 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, AccuChris said:

18z GFS long range eye candy says Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night


.

I moved here in 2006 and it’s only snowed once on 12/24 or 12/25 iirc. We had friends from Australia here then and that Christmas Eve is still there favorite day ever. 

[Blizzard of 93]

0z Canadian shows a chance on the 18th.

[Blizzard of 93]

In the shorter term, the 0z GFS still likes the Saturday night chance for an Advisory type of event.

[MAG5035]

Temps have fallen all the way back to 9ºF here so far tonight, with some more room to fall further with a 5ºF dewpoint. KBFD already has another below zero night (-4ºF) currently, which makes two of those within only the first 8 days of December there. Even being generally the coldest official station in PA that’s still pretty impressive. 

[Ruin]

funny thing is Ive been looking at my extended outlook for temps just yesterday we had a long stretch of 20s in the middle of the month. Now they are all low 40s and the snow it showed is now rain? what friggin gives I know that far out models suck but what did the models see for the person to be like yep warm up and adjust the temps?

[Voyager]

3 hours ago, Ruin said:

funny thing is Ive been looking at my extended outlook for temps just yesterday we had a long stretch of 20s in the middle of the month. Now they are all low 40s and the snow it showed is now rain? what friggin gives I know that far out models suck but what did the models see for the person to be like yep warm up and adjust the temps?

Looks like, per this morning's GFS and Euro, we moderate after the 18th. For this water hauling truck driver, that is a most welcome development. First, loading and unloading the water in these temps, is tricky and challenging. Second, I've already had a few cold related issues with the trucks themselves. Sometimes I wish I'd have chosen a different career where I only had to worry about the weather for my commute to and from work, and not my entire day.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

12 when I left the house, may go lower. 

[Voyager]

3.0 here right now.

No sooner do I go back to hauling water that the gates of arctic hell open up. 

[anotherman]

7

[AccuChris]

Down to 5° here in Lebanon. Impressive


.

[Blizzard of 93]

8 in Marysville for the low & currently.

[mahantango#1]

8 minutes ago, Voyager said:

3.0 here right now.

No sooner do I go back to hauling water that the gates of arctic hell open up. 

Stay warm, at least there is not 2 feet of snow on the ground with 40mph winds at these temps. 

[mahantango#1]

3.4 here, might drop a little more till sunrise. Coldest reading yet this season.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z Euro & GFS both give us a little light snow overnight Friday.

[Blizzard of 93]

Then, 6z Euro & GFS both show a potential Advisory level chance late Saturday night into early Sunday.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z GFS & Euro both bring 3 to 4 inches of snow to the LSV by Sunday morning.

[WmsptWx]

Looking at the ten day, the coming cold doesn't seem to be as... cold as they had initially advertised.

[mahantango#1]

4 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Looking at the ten day, the coming cold doesn't seem to be as... cold as they had initially advertised.

JB said this this morning: 

I am keying on the WPO and the MJO. There is alot of warm air in the pattern day 11-20, but the WPO favors it getting cut down coming to the east. In fact opposite models, there should be an eastern trough week 3 and dont be surprised if the models head that way. Its a rare an unholy alliance, but I think the GEFS is the better model here and I am leaning on it

Somethings gotta give, Either the big telleconnections are wrong or the temperature pattern on the euro is overwarmed