December Banter 2025

[Jebman]

Latest modeling showing possibly 15 PLUS inches of pure water smashing down on the north Sierra. That would be catastrophic flooding and/or truly epic, Brobdingnagian amounts of snow.

[Kay]

25 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Man, the emotional roller coaster. Some things never change, from the eastern/AccuWeather days to now. 

Don't forget the ongoing meta analysis of the emotional rollercoastering. Also the trolling to mock and/or incite the emotional rollercoastering. And ofc the extra-meta posts like this one 

[Benjamn3]

36 minutes ago, Kay said:

Don't forget the ongoing meta analysis of the emotional rollercoastering. Also the trolling to mock and/or incite the emotional rollercoastering. And ofc the extra-meta posts like this one 

Gang gang baby. 

[yoda]

Orioles fans

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/orioles-nearing-deal-to-acquire-shane-baz-from-rays.html

 

[Ji]

philly people are just morons lol

https://x.com/Breaking911/status/2002075982023577922?s=20

[WxUSAF]

30 minutes ago, yoda said:

Orioles fans

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/orioles-nearing-deal-to-acquire-shane-baz-from-rays.html

 

Aggressive trade. That’s an impressive prospect haul plus a draft pick. But Baz is a solid get for several seasons. Could have #2-3 caliber stuff

[CAPE]

56 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Aggressive trade. That’s an impressive prospect haul plus a draft pick. But Baz is a solid get for several seasons. Could have #2-3 caliber stuff

This what we need, and exactly what Elias needed to do. STOP coveting every damn prospect and start dealing to make this team better now. The window is going to close fast with some of the core talent approaching FA, and Boros being the agent for Henderson and Westburg. Holiday too but that's further down the road.

[Jebman]

Look guys I know this is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off topic up in here but we could all use a good laugh. I laughed so hard I think I managed to injure something and I am bound for the ER at St Davids in Austin right now, but I don't want any of you to miss out on any of the fun. I really WORSHIP all of the meteorological misfortunes in the Sierran Cordillera. All while I stand here all entitled, in 70s weather in south central Texas, with at least 10 days of well above normal weather on tap, all while everyone else gets to fight for their very lives in horrific wintry weather conditions.

I think high winds at flight level are funny.

I think people trying to get somewhere at the last minute for Christmas and getting stuck like Donners' party, is the absolutely funniest thing in the whole world!

That part about the grievances being aired was what REALLY made me guffaw. Most people in this house now think I am completely out of my ever lovin' mind and stand in serious need of psychiatric intervention.

 

 

 

780
FXUS65 KREV 190927
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
127 AM PST Fri Dec 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread strong winds today and possibly again on Sunday.
  Likely impacts for both road and air travel. Localized fire
  weather concerns in the Eastern Sierra.

* Showers including mountain snow showers this afternoon and
  evening. Heavier rains likely Saturday night through Sunday that
  could lead to localized flooding concerns.

* Another storm or two could bring significant rain and snow
  Tuesday into Christmas Day, but confidence remains mixed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Welp, it`s still looking rather busy weather-wise over the
  coming 7 days with a series of Pacific storms including
  atmospheric rivers. Anyone with holiday travel plans by road and
  by air should keep an eye on the forecast and adjust
  accordingly.

* Wind: Today & Sunday are the windiest days in what will be a
  breezy period through most of next week. Rather impressive zonal
  jet moving though the Pac NW & N Calif coupled with increasing
  pre-frontal gradient will yield widespread strong winds today.
  Given W/SW flow orientation and 700mb speeds 50-60 knots, wave
  breaking and downslope enhancement is possible today along Hwy
  395 from Susanville-Reno-Mammoth where we have wind advisories
  posted. Low humidity could create fire weather concerns, and it
  won`t be a pretty day for flying either. For Sunday another
  plume of high speed air aloft comes in with an moderate
  atmospheric river. RRFS showing 700mb winds over 70 knots. Wow.
  So if we end up being more shadowed on Sunday (more T than V
  from the AR IVT) we could have another round of rather strong,
  impactful winds regionwide.

* Rain: While today will generally be dry, high-res models show
  showers moving in post-front this afternoon into the evening.
  Should be mostly rain except the Sierra peaks, however NBM and
  HREF are showing potential for snow p-type at passes if we see
  heavier precip rates. Rapid p-type changes can catch travelers
  off- guard. Saturday night through Sunday is still the main show
  for heavy rain with pronounced atmospheric river signal and
  high rain- snow lines (8000`+). QPF in the mountains is similar
  to guidance 24 hours ago but a little less in lee-side areas of
  W Nevada (more periods of shadowing/wind perhaps?). Highest risk
  of heavy rains and potential flooding remains the Tahoe Basin
  into NE Calif where models stall/pivot the main AR band for the
  longest time. If there were an area to underperform it would be
  the Eastern Sierra/Mono Co based on further north trajectories
  of the AR plume.

* Snow: Precip never totally shuts off in the mountains but does
  lessen in intensity Monday into early Tuesday. Starting Monday
  night the snow lines drop enough were we could start seeing more
  regular impacts to travel over the passes. Simulations showing
  one or two additional notable and cooler storms moving in
  Tuesday evening through Christmas Day. Lots of variables here
  with models digging troughs off the coast which sometimes can
  result in a southward shift of the heaviest precip, wide
  boom/bust scenarios, and an increased airing of grievances next
  week. That all being said, QPF and snowfall in the NBM 50th
  percentiles has gone up quite a bit vs 24 hours ago for
  Wednesday-Thursday. Potentially good news for the snowpack and
  local "white Christmas" stats, but not so good news for those
  trying to get someplace at the last minute before Christmas.

-Chris

&&

.AVIATION...

* Buckle up, it`s not exactly going to be a smooth day for flying
  with strong winds, mountain waves, rotors, and low level wind
  shear all on the table today into this evening.

* Strong W/SW flow with RRFS 700mb winds to 60 knots forecast
  today and tonight, associated with an upper jet and approaching
  cold front. 80% chance of seeing peak gusts at least 35 knots at
  most airfields including RNO/CXP/MEV, TRK/TVL, MMH with 40-60%
  at NFL/SVE/HTH. High-end gusts over 50 knots cannot be ruled out
  in more wind prone areas along Hwy 395. NBM has 40-60% chances
  of 50 knot peak gusts at RNO and MMH for example. Another round
  of strong winds is looking likely on Sunday as well.

* With that front today, we will have showers develop this
  afternoon and evening. Mainly in the mountains from SVE to
  TRK/TVL with potential for MVFR-IFR conditions in rain. Can`t
  rule out a rain/snow mix but low confidence. For RNO/CXP/MEV,
  light showers are possible (40% chance) but visibility/ceilings
  look to remain VFR. MMH misses out on this one, just wind for
  them.

* Additional showers possible Saturday but mainly light
  intensity. Winds should be less robust as well.

-Chris

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* There is concern over areas of critical wind and low humidity
  in the Eastern Sierra today, specifically fire weather zones
  CA274 and NV421.

* Latest NBM and HREF guidance suggest 1-3 hours of critical
  conditions especially along Hwys 395 & 6 where W/SW winds could
  gust over 50 MPH this afternoon (see Wind Advisory). Humidity
  values already in the teens as of this writing and it`s been
  rather dry lately with well above normal ERC levels.

* No Red Flag Warning at this time due to limited spatial extent
  and duration of critical conditions however we will highlight
  the risk in the FWF and our morning briefing email.

-Chris

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Repost of yesterdays hydro section. This will be updated with the
daytime discussion.

* Moderate to heavy rains will lead to significant rises on
  rivers and streams Sunday into Monday most notably from the
  Tahoe Basin north through Lassen County, but no mainstem river
  flooding is currently expected.

* Minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and rockfall
  are possible during any prolonged periods of high intensity
  rainfall. Watch for additional rises near Christmas Eve and
  possible flooding concerns especially in drainages with large
  mountain drainages below about 6,000 feet, like the Susan River
  for example.

* You can find river forecasts updated twice daily at:
  www.cnrfc.noaa.gov

-Tim

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday NVZ002-003-005.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday NVZ004.

CA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday CAZ070>072.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning CAZ072.

 

 

[snowfan]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

This what we need, and exactly what Elias needed to do. STOP coveting every damn prospect and start dealing to make this team better now. The window is going to close fast with some of the core talent approaching FA, and Boros being the agent for Henderson and Westburg. Holiday too but that's further down the road.

Sure looks like a deal from a front office that knows they have a few year window left to capitalize. I like it. 

[Jebman]

You guys might wanna keep a weather eye on this cam, because this is The Scope up at Palisades Tahoe at 8200 feet. Sure, it's snowing.

Latest models print out about 10-14 inches of pure water.

Fourteen inches pure water equates to about say, 100-140 inches of snow?

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

Mammoth has snow now, too!!!!!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Mammoth is only going to get MUCH lighter snow, only about 6 inches pure water. Hey, that's barely plowable in Sierran terms! Only 4-6 feet of snow.

Central TX is gonnabe jumping for pure joy because man we are gonnabe breaking temperature records right and left, possibly RIGHT INTO THE NEW YEAR !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Jebman]

Snowshoe is ALWAYS getting demolished! Doesn't it EVER stop snowing up there?

https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam

[Jebman]

Okay folks, this storm is gonnabe a slow starter for Mammoth. It's gonna drag on for days.

I'll keep y'all posted. This is NO time to be traveling in the Sierra for Christmas. This is a BAD storm, will potentially turn portions of the Sierra into December-Buried for the entirety of the Holidays, with no one at all to rescue you.

[Jebman]

I have never heard of ever needing a special Jebman-issued STATE OF THE SNOWPACK report for a place such as Palisades Tahoe.

STATE OF THE SNOWPACK

Issued Sat 9.12am local PST 20 DEC 2025

It's true I am no veteran of the Tahoe Resort. But never in my born days have I ever seen the Infamy at Tahoe, at the 8200-foot Scope level, that I witnessed today. Several inches of near-clear SLUSH! I had to ask myself, is this the Mid Atlantic with Lucy doing her usual, or could it truly be Palisades Tahoe stuck in a super Interglacial? This, is FAR WORSE than the Ravens losing every game for five seasons, even with all of the best acquisitions they could ever get!! What did they get last night at Tahoe, white meteors? I have seen all their cameras which now work. Absolute Bedlam. Grass. Bushes. This looks like July at the Resort. Might as well have hikes and mountain bike races all "winter". I was horrified. There are a few places they tried so hard to develop something to ski on with artificial snow, but it has obviously been so damn mild right up to now, that the state of the non-existent snowpack is a Mean One, and Nature has been and is one hell of a ferocious Grinch!

Christmas is five days away, and I am sorry to say Tahoe will have a Green Christmas! Or Brown. Anything but white. There is no Christmas miracle this year. Even Santa is staying away. The low tide obstacles would rip up his ski runners on his famed sled. Skiers don't know what to do! Some are so desperate for snow they are going to Antarctica! Hey, they got mountains! They got snow too. It's just a little bit colder than they are used to lol.

The State of the Snowpack at Palisades Tahoe is something hellishly worse than horrible right now.

Even the storms are rainy or sloppy slush snow. And the temps are bad, 35 degrees? At 8000 feet?

There is no snowpack at Palisades. I don't even know why I try. I don't even know why I care. It's all for nought. I never ever even imagined in my worst nightmares, a fate such as this for poor Tahoe, a snowless wasteland that can't even hit 32 degrees at night with a megastorm with 14 inches of water, that's gonna all fall as pure water, for a week. The Palisades may all get washed away by New Years.

[Jebman]

I just got the latest dope.

Significant rain is expected to impact Palisades Ops.

Tahoe is getting demolished by pacific puke, in the worst way.

 

Mid Atlantic has a statistically better chance at accumulating snows right now, than does Palisades at 9500 feet.

 

[Jebman]

Nothing but BAD NEWS into early 2026 for Sierran ski resorts.

I am very happy that I am not a ski resort owner this year. The weather in the West is so damned bizarre it's frightening, especially if you are financially invested in ski resorts in the Sierra. I have almost given up all hope. 

Even worse news, storms look to have torrential RAIN and extremely wet slushy snow at best thru New Years and beyond. Extreme winds will likely tear the precip apart. This is bizarre. They will probably end up shutting the winter part of the Palisades down for the 2025-2026 Season and running the resort kind of the way they run it in summer except it will be chilly. Like running gondolas and having bike races all winter, with deep mud and catastrophic landslides adding challenges. Maybe running parkour races in landslide debris. I don't think the Sierra will see even one good snowstorm with good skiable snow all winter, now. The weather systems are all screwed up. Just look at the thinning snowpack at Mammoth. It's really running thin over there, and with those conditions, they are having trouble replenishing those thin spots over time. The slush falling there now is only making worse what was already a very bad situation. All they will see is translucent slush. People will ski that crap, smash up spicy on low tide obstacles like boulders and shrubs get grievously injured then sue the ski industry right into bankruptcy. 

This is turning out to be a seriously bizarre winter in the West. 

Ok, to be honest, Palisades IS getting some snow but it is well above freezing. It will be translucent glop, useless on the slopes and its falling on bare ground, at temperatures about 38 degrees. Sound familiar, DC'ers? This stuff happens to western communities, too. At high elevations, around 9500 feet. Lucy is everywhere and she is getting deviously clever. Sometimes she doesn't yank the storm out from under you. You just have what amounts to intense snow tv, with plenty of accumulation, but the snowpack is gloppy and I don't think skiing on mashed potatoes-like snow is really all that much fun.

Skiing on translucent glop and mushy potatoes snow is exhilarating. You should try this. Just stay alert. Try not to tear up your skis and your body on rocks, boulders, shrubs and ground irregularities as you slide down this messy gloppy snow slope lol. It's also kind of dirty. The ground underneath is very muddy and it kind of like gets all mixed up with the gloppy extremely wet snow.

Ever since late last year, everything in America has gone straight downhill in every category. No exceptions. Poor people like me won't make it. Not a chance. Things are so bad now, that I know without a doubt, that I was far happier in 2020. I was better off in 2020 too. My personal health was also a lot better.

America is now a fully ruined financial nation. Probably the only way to save it is CBDC.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I just love the sunset color at this time of year!!