Birds~69 Posted yesterday at 10:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:10 PM 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: stolen from the mid atlantic forum... euro AI EPS trending cooler as well and backs up the OP. It'll be fun to watch until 18z Does AI understand we have glaciers hanging around and accounts for that (colder temp) or it has nothing to do with it and I'm a idiot? 33F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted yesterday at 11:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 11:15 PM 18z gfs actually got some light snow to our area. My gut tells me we’ll see the 18z euro Ai take a step back, but man if it gets even better it’ll be get your popcorn ready time. 18z gfs with a 2016-like MECS day 10-11. Winter isn’t over yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted yesterday at 11:48 PM Share Posted yesterday at 11:48 PM Not horrible, I actually though H5 looked better than 12z, but it was a slight step back with snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted yesterday at 11:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 11:50 PM It also has a nice CAD event around the 23-24th, which is a time period that’s starting to look fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Joe Cioffi thinks a cold potentially snowy second half of March 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago It isn't over ...til it's over! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 38 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: It isn't over ...til it's over! Exactly. Some winters you know its over by the 3rd week in January. This has been steady -AO and ridging in the NAO....and those ingredients are exactly what lead to late surprises and long cold dreary March and early Aprils. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Joe Cioffi thinks a cold potentially snowy second half of March Not going to happen. The first half of March is really the latest it could get potentially snowy. By the time you get to the 2nd half of March, the sun angle is too high. Yes, you could still get a snowstorm in the second half of March (like in 1958 or 2018), but you need a lot of things to come together. Besides, in 1958 and 2018, you had snow events leading up to the big second half of March snowstorm. If we don't get a snow event in the 2nd half of February, it just might not happen. Winter doesn't magically return in the 2nd half of March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 15 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Not going to happen. The first half of March is really the latest it could get potentially snowy. By the time you get to the 2nd half of March, the sun angle is too high. Yes, you could still get a snowstorm in the second half of March (like in 1958 or 2018), but you need a lot of things to come together. Besides, in 1958 and 2018, you had snow events leading up to the big second half of March snowstorm. If we don't get a snow event in the 2nd half of February, it just might not happen. Winter doesn't magically return in the 2nd half of March. Dude just stop posting . This post isnt true at all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Dude just stop posting . This post isnt true at all. Yes, we have had accumulating snows into mid April at PHL airport and even early May. Is it normal to snow in late March? Of course not, but it happens and this would probably be the season we see it. And if Hurricane Schwartz is on board, well, enough said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yes, we have had accumulating snows into mid April at PHL airport and even early May. Is it normal to snow in late March? Of course not, but it happens and this would probably be the season we see it. And if Hurricane Schwartz is on board, well, enough said. I had snow in May 2020 because of polar vortex disruption Forecast is two polar vortex disruptions one this weekend which won't be resuming the arctic connection and another in two weeks. The second one the models say will bring the cold two weeks later. Just a forecast could be wrong we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 4 hours ago, RedSky said: I had snow in May 2020 because of polar vortex disruption Forecast is two polar vortex disruptions one this weekend which won't be resuming the arctic connection and another in two weeks. The second one the models say will bring the cold two weeks later. Just a forecast could be wrong we will see. I remember the May 2020 snow. It was the weekend I tore my rotator cuff. The high, I believe that Saturday, was only in the 30's, and we did have flurries and snow showers in Tamaqua. Of course there was no accumulation, but it was the first and only time I saw snow in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 2020 was a warm and essentially snowless winter, which reversed to the mean, and turned cold in April and May. Same with 2023, which turned cold in May and June. We have nothing like that like this year. If we regress to the mean this year, it will be more like 2010, 2011, and 2015. All of those were cold and snowy winters, which turned warm in the spring. 5 hours ago, RedSky said: Forecast is two polar vortex disruptions one this weekend which won't be resuming the arctic connection and another in two weeks. The second one the models say will bring the cold two weeks later. Just a forecast could be wrong we will see. Yeah, none of this is going to happen. Polar vortex disruptions don't happen 2 weeks apart this late in the season. We're at best only going to get one of these. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Sunny with highs near freezing today. We then turn a bit milder over the weekend with highs near average not too far from 40 degrees. A slight chance of some light snow by Sunday night before a nice warm-up toward the middle of next week. We will see highs well into the 40's. Rain chances increase again by Wednesday and we will trend colder again by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Snow Flo Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago No Sno Flo says it's time for the snow to go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago …and we’re back to where we were yesterday. Ha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 14 minutes ago, Heisy said: …and we’re back to where we were yesterday. Ha are you buying it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago are you buying it?I’m not sold on Ai solution. Something like the Euro OP makes more sense to me. Still, weird to see changes this much at 72 hours, goes to show you how fragile this phase is 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: I’m not sold on Ai solution. Something like the Euro OP makes more sense to me. Still, weird to see changes this much at 72 hours, goes to show you how fragile this phase is The Euro OP showing a similar shift is intriguing, as well as other guidance shifting towards it. If we can slowly tick that southern vort more progressive and that northern stream a tad slower/sharper from here until game time, we'll have a snowstorm on our hands. Still not buying it yet, but the 12z EPS is way north as well 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 7 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: 2020 was a warm and essentially snowless winter, which reversed to the mean, and turned cold in April and May. Same with 2023, which turned cold in May and June. We have nothing like that like this year. If we regress to the mean this year, it will be more like 2010, 2011, and 2015. All of those were cold and snowy winters, which turned warm in the spring. Yeah, none of this is going to happen. Polar vortex disruptions don't happen 2 weeks apart this late in the season. We're at best only going to get one of these. 2003 had a cold powder storm in April I measured 6" 15 miles from Philly. This was preceded by two weeks of torch in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18z icon looks close to its 6z run so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 25 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z icon looks close to its 6z run so far Colder and snowier N of the PA turnpike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GFS on board now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gfs with a nice shift 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS looks solid for SE PA. Like I said, keep ticking this slowly each run up until Sunday night and it's gonna be a legit storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The more north this comes the south the boundary gets for the next storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Hello. I have declared winter back on. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs with a nice shift But winter is over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Major weenie GFS run. Back to back winter storms next weekend. Anyone who declared winter dead should have their posting rights revoked until May 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshb32689 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2022438348405481832 I don’t know what the GRAF is but damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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