E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Birds~69]

2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

stolen from the mid atlantic forum... euro AI EPS trending cooler as well and backs up the OP. It'll be fun to watch until 18z 

 

 

 

 

Does AI understand we have glaciers hanging around and accounts for that (colder temp) or it has nothing to do with it and I'm a idiot?

33F

[Heisy]

18z gfs actually got some light snow to our area. My gut tells me we’ll see the 18z euro Ai take a step back, but man if it gets even better it’ll be get your popcorn ready time.

18z gfs with a 2016-like MECS day 10-11. Winter isn’t over yet

[Heisy]

Not horrible, I actually though H5 looked better than 12z, but it was a slight step back with snow totals

[Heisy]

It also has a nice CAD event around the 23-24th, which is a time period that’s starting to look fun

[RedSky]

Joe Cioffi thinks a cold potentially snowy second half of March

 

[zenmsav6810]

It isn't over ...til it's over!

[Ralph Wiggum]

38 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

It isn't over ...til it's over!

Exactly. Some winters you know its over by the 3rd week in January. This has been steady -AO and ridging in the NAO....and those ingredients are exactly what lead to late surprises and long cold dreary March and early Aprils.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Joe Cioffi thinks a cold potentially snowy second half of March

 

Not going to happen. The first half of March is really the latest it could get potentially snowy. By the time you get to the 2nd half of March, the sun angle is too high. Yes, you could still get a snowstorm in the second half of March (like in 1958 or 2018), but you need a lot of things to come together. Besides, in 1958 and 2018, you had snow events leading up to the big second half of March snowstorm. If we don't get a snow event in the 2nd half of February, it just might not happen. Winter doesn't magically return in the 2nd half of March.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Not going to happen. The first half of March is really the latest it could get potentially snowy. By the time you get to the 2nd half of March, the sun angle is too high. Yes, you could still get a snowstorm in the second half of March (like in 1958 or 2018), but you need a lot of things to come together. Besides, in 1958 and 2018, you had snow events leading up to the big second half of March snowstorm. If we don't get a snow event in the 2nd half of February, it just might not happen. Winter doesn't magically return in the 2nd half of March.

Dude just stop posting . This post isnt true at all.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Dude just stop posting . This post isnt true at all.

Yes, we have had accumulating snows into mid April at PHL airport and even early May. Is it normal to snow in late March? Of course not, but it happens and this would probably be the season we see it. And if Hurricane Schwartz is on board, well, enough said.

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yes, we have had accumulating snows into mid April at PHL airport and even early May. Is it normal to snow in late March? Of course not, but it happens and this would probably be the season we see it. And if Hurricane Schwartz is on board, well, enough said.

I had snow in May 2020 because of polar vortex disruption

Forecast is two polar vortex disruptions  one this weekend which won't be resuming the arctic connection and another in two weeks. The second one the models say will bring the cold two weeks later. 

Just a forecast could be wrong we will see.