E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Mikeymac5306]

15 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

GFS steadfast with a nothingburger

CMC is close but Temperature issues give us about a 2-inch thump to rain.  

[Heisy]

Got pumped faked by the euro, the new Andre miller of the weather models. Next 2 weeks look toasted. Hibernation mode for me.

[MickeyTim6533]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Got pumped faked by the euro, the new Andre miller of the weather models. Next 2 weeks look toasted. Hibernation mode for me.

uh oh, is it that bad?

[Lady Di]

Was just out having a smoke and there is some graupel coming out the clouds!

 

38F

[Duca892]

I’ll be the weenie. Winter might be fading quick 

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

I’ll be the weenie. Winter might be fading quick 

You can bank on both of those GFS storms verifying as I am flying out to Vegas on the 22nd and coming back the 27th. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

You can bank on both of those GFS storms verifying as I am flying out to Vegas on the 22nd and coming back the 27th. 

That's roughly the short window of opportunity, if there is going to be any snow remaining in this season. Once you get back, we're going to be in MJO Phase 6, and that will be all she wrote for this winter.

[The Iceman]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That's roughly the short window of opportunity, if there is going to be any snow remaining in this season. Once you get back, we're going to be in MJO Phase 6, and that will be all she wrote for this winter.

If you keep saying that's all she wrote for winter, eventually you'll be right because that's the nature of the seasons. However, just want to point out you were saying winter was cooked in January before our coldest stretch in 10 years... definitive statements in long range forecasting is fools errand. 

 

Quote

The temperature departure for January is going to be near normal by the end of today, if not tomorrow, in many places in the East, with the warmup just starting. I don't see sustained cold anywhere in the near future. We may not end up the absurd positive temperatures of January 2017 or 2023, but January should end with above average temperature departures in most places in the East.

Quote

Probably not, and if we do, it will be mostly rain. There is just not much sustained cold air between now and the end of the month. I tried warning you all that if there wasn't a snowstorm in the first ten days of January, we might be waiting a while for one.

Quote

I get the feeling we're going to see above average temperatures by the time we hit mid-January. 

 

[JTA66]

I've been hearing about the warm up since Thanksgiving. Funny how every year as we approach spring it warms up. Go figure. 

And there's no need to post "winter is over" every six hours after each model cycle. We get it, we heard you the first 50 times. Move on to the spring thread and post about flowers and bumble bees in there.

[ChescoWx]

Today is our 27th straight day with snow cover here in Chester County. Tomorrow we will move to the 15th longest such stretch and 24th overall snow cover streak in county history with 133 years of records back to 1893. Below normal temperatures will continue through tomorrow before we warm to near normal temperatures over the weekend. There is a chance of some snow or rain arriving later Sunday with the highest chances across more southern areas. We look to continue to warm next week with temperatures well into the 40's by Tuesday. We will likely turn colder again by the end of new week.

[Birds~69]

34F/overcast...tad more winds than I expected.

[Heisy]

All the 12z guidance total whiff and then the euro Ai does this, wth is going on with this event, so weird lol

[Heisy]

Just a small change with the northern stream timing and angle was able to just get some lift up to our region. Probably another mirage, who knows

[Heisy]

Euro gets precip to us at least but it missed the phase

[The Iceman]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

All the 12z guidance total whiff and then the euro Ai does this, wth is going on with this event, so weird lol

If there was one model I would want vs everyone it's the Euro AI. It's been killing it this winter. However, it has been very erratic with this event, I don't think I've seen it make this big of a swing in the mid range like this. Probably not done changing, but I am intrigued it came on board.  With such a thread the needle look, odds are against it, but there are definite paths to snow. You could also look at the Euro AI as leading the way as it was the first one to keep things suppressed and finally all the other models trended to it and it ticks north. 18z will be telling if this was just a blip.

[Heisy]

If there was one model I would want vs everyone it's the Euro AI. It's been killing it this winter. However, it has been very erratic with this event, I don't think I've seen it make this big of a swing in the mid range like this. Probably not done changing, but I am intrigued it came on board.  With such a thread the needle look, odds are against it, but there are definite paths to snow. You could also look at the Euro AI as leading the way as it was the first one to keep things suppressed and finally all the other models trended to it and it ticks north. 18z will be telling if this was just a blip.

Exactly, just one small timing change with that N/S piece resulted in this, but having literally 0 other guidance showing this is a weird place to be considering how good the Ai is like you said

[Heisy]

If there was one model I would want vs everyone it's the Euro AI. It's been killing it this winter. However, it has been very erratic with this event, I don't think I've seen it make this big of a swing in the mid range like this. Probably not done changing, but I am intrigued it came on board.  With such a thread the needle look, odds are against it, but there are definite paths to snow. You could also look at the Euro AI as leading the way as it was the first one to keep things suppressed and finally all the other models trended to it and it ticks north. 18z will be telling if this was just a blip.

another tidbit, the 12z euro Ai result is the same thing the Ai ensemble mean and eps have been showing last two runs

[MickeyTim6533]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Exactly, just one small timing change with that N/S piece resulted in this, but having literally 0 other guidance showing this is a weird place to be considering how good the Ai is like you said

Is it possible the Euro AI leads a change?

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, JTA66 said:

I've been hearing about the warm up since Thanksgiving. Funny how every year as we approach spring it warms up. Go figure. 

And there's no need to post "winter is over" every six hours after each model cycle. We get it, we heard you the first 50 times. Move on to the spring thread and post about flowers and bumble bees in there.

The ignore feature is your best friend.

[Heisy]

another tidbit, the 12z euro Ai result is the same thing the Ai ensemble mean and eps have been showing last two runs

[JTA66]

22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The ignore feature is your best friend.

Better to be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.

[Newman]

EPS is a 3.4" mean in Philly, 55% chance snow totals > 1", compared to only 33% at 6z

[Newman]

I haven't chimed in on this threat really because it's super thread the needle, but the Euro AI has the favorable changes we need at hour 48-54 with that piece of northern energy. Also, our southern vort is a bit more progressive which allows for more constructive phasing vs destructive phasing between the two shortwaves. The flow is so progressive so I'm just not sure how we get that NS wave to phase in, but crazier things have happened

[The Iceman]

12 minutes ago, Newman said:

EPS is a 3.4" mean in Philly, 55% chance of P > 1", compared to only 33% at 6z

Pretty crazy spread 

 

[Newman]

6 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Pretty crazy spread 

 

AIFS ENS is more tightly clustered off the Mid-Atlantic coast, QPF mean is 0.7" in Philly (some of that is probably rain at initial onset). There's probably a few big ones in the AIFS ENS individuals

[The Iceman]

stolen from the mid atlantic forum... euro AI EPS trending cooler as well and backs up the OP. It'll be fun to watch until 18z 

 

 

 

 

[Newman]

Here are the individual AIFS ensembles. I counted about 24/50 members have plowable (3" or greater) snow into Philly. Just about that many have 6"+ or even 12"+ as well. Truly boom or bust. It all depends on if we phase or not with the NS wave. Let's ride member 29, 46 or 50 and call it a winter.

And just to clarify, I'm not calling for a significant snowstorm with this one yet. I will need to see substantial shifts in other guidance and for the AIFS to hold the line in future runs.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 or 46 is probably the most likely outcome, considering how most of the storm tracks have gone this year.