E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Mikeymac5306]

15 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

GFS steadfast with a nothingburger

CMC is close but Temperature issues give us about a 2-inch thump to rain.  

[Heisy]

Got pumped faked by the euro, the new Andre miller of the weather models. Next 2 weeks look toasted. Hibernation mode for me.

[MickeyTim6533]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Got pumped faked by the euro, the new Andre miller of the weather models. Next 2 weeks look toasted. Hibernation mode for me.

uh oh, is it that bad?

[Lady Di]

Was just out having a smoke and there is some graupel coming out the clouds!

 

38F

[Duca892]

I’ll be the weenie. Winter might be fading quick 

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

I’ll be the weenie. Winter might be fading quick 

You can bank on both of those GFS storms verifying as I am flying out to Vegas on the 22nd and coming back the 27th. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

You can bank on both of those GFS storms verifying as I am flying out to Vegas on the 22nd and coming back the 27th. 

That's roughly the short window of opportunity, if there is going to be any snow remaining in this season. Once you get back, we're going to be in MJO Phase 6, and that will be all she wrote for this winter.

[The Iceman]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That's roughly the short window of opportunity, if there is going to be any snow remaining in this season. Once you get back, we're going to be in MJO Phase 6, and that will be all she wrote for this winter.

If you keep saying that's all she wrote for winter, eventually you'll be right because that's the nature of the seasons. However, just want to point out you were saying winter was cooked in January before our coldest stretch in 10 years... definitive statements in long range forecasting is fools errand. 

 

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The temperature departure for January is going to be near normal by the end of today, if not tomorrow, in many places in the East, with the warmup just starting. I don't see sustained cold anywhere in the near future. We may not end up the absurd positive temperatures of January 2017 or 2023, but January should end with above average temperature departures in most places in the East.

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Probably not, and if we do, it will be mostly rain. There is just not much sustained cold air between now and the end of the month. I tried warning you all that if there wasn't a snowstorm in the first ten days of January, we might be waiting a while for one.

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I get the feeling we're going to see above average temperatures by the time we hit mid-January. 

 

[JTA66]

I've been hearing about the warm up since Thanksgiving. Funny how every year as we approach spring it warms up. Go figure. 

And there's no need to post "winter is over" every six hours after each model cycle. We get it, we heard you the first 50 times. Move on to the spring thread and post about flowers and bumble bees in there.