E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[ChescoWx]

Some spots today have their first chance at seeing above freezing temperatures. If we fail to reach freezing today it will mark our 11th straight day. This would tie for the 5th longest sub-freezing streak in County history. If we do not top freezing today we have an increasing chance at setting an all-time county record. If we get through next Monday we would set just such a record at 17 days. There were a couple of flurries out there this morning, but we should see some sun this afternoon. Some additional flurries are possible tonight especially across southern areas. A little better shot at some light snow on Friday before yet another strong arctic front sends us back into the freezer for the weekend.

[John18]

Bus stop this morning it felt warmer than what the temp was and my AccuWeather confirmed it. Temp was 21° but real feel was 31°. It was cloudy as well.

What's the reasoning for that?

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

[rcostell]

4 hours ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

man, this place is a morgue

Quiet pattern, quiet forum (compared to others).  Not as many enthusiasts post/analyze here in general it seems. 

[rcostell]

2 hours ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

May I suggest you go to the Midwest Forum and hang with our friends Mohammet, Judish, Sidney, and Clayton? 

Ouch

[PhiEaglesfan712]

17 years ago (February 3-4, 2009):

 

[The Iceman]

47 minutes ago, rcostell said:

Quiet pattern, quiet forum (compared to others).  Not as many enthusiasts post/analyze here in general it seems. 

I don't live and die with every model run...especially not the GFS. I check in once or twice a day usually after 12z in quiet periods like this. 11-14th period looks even more interesting today than it did yesterday imo. People also need to stop looking at the shitty GFS... Euro flexes the SE ridge in the day 10 like the GFS but we've seen that be overdone all year long. Euro AI at 6z was close to a decent miller b on the 10-11th followed by 2 more threats after that. Mid month looks like the precip opens up, whether or not we have the cold in place will be TBD, but it will be lurking close by. I don't think the pattern in that timeframe screams all snow, but it definitely looks wintry imo. I also would not sleep on Friday night/sat morning, would not be surprised if someone gets a quick inch or two at all.

[rcostell]

36 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I don't live and die with every model run...especially not the GFS. I check in once or twice a day usually after 12z in quiet periods like this. 11-14th period looks even more interesting today than it did yesterday imo. People also need to stop looking at the shitty GFS... Euro flexes the SE ridge in the day 10 like the GFS but we've seen that be overdone all year long. Euro AI at 6z was close to a decent miller b on the 10-11th followed by 2 more threats after that. Mid month looks like the precip opens up, whether or not we have the cold in place will be TBD, but it will be lurking close by. I don't think the pattern in that timeframe screams all snow, but it definitely looks wintry imo. I also would not sleep on Friday night/sat morning, would not be surprised if someone gets a quick inch or two at all.

Good sane approach... I hope you are right- Thanks 

[JTA66]

We don't have wall-to-wall cold and snowy winters. Even our best winters feature a relaxation period. Right now it looks like our January thaw will occur mid Feb. Where we go from there? I don't know. Maybe winter is over, maybe it reloads.

For now, I'll keep an eye on Friday and hope we score another car topper with cold temps returning for the weekend. Five days at a time.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

We don't have wall-to-wall cold and snowy winters. Even our best winters feature a relaxation period. Right now it looks like our January thaw will occur mid Feb. Where we go from there? I don't know. Maybe winter is over, maybe it reloads.

For now, I'll keep an eye on Friday and hope we score another car topper with cold temps returning for the weekend. Five days at a time.

Uh, we had a January thaw from about 1/6-1/15:

2026-01-06	45	31	38.0	3.7	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2026-01-07	57	38	47.5	13.3	17	0	0.00	0.0	0
2026-01-08	55	34	44.5	10.5	20	0	0.00	0.0	0
2026-01-09	57	31	44.0	10.1	21	0	0.04	0.0	0
2026-01-10	50	43	46.5	12.7	18	0	0.96	0.0	0
2026-01-11	49	36	42.5	8.8	22	0	0.01	0.0	0
2026-01-12	45	30	37.5	3.9	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2026-01-13	51	28	39.5	6.0	25	0	0.00	0.0	0
2026-01-14	57	44	50.5	17.1	14	0	0.00	0.0	0
2026-01-15	45	25	35.0	1.7	30	0	0.03	T	0

[Birds~69]

Even Weather Underground is a weenie/having snow hallucinations...the sun is out.

Yeah, a small accumulation Friday then a cold period w/the Superbowl Sunday would be a pretty solid winter weekend...

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

I don't live and die with every model run...especially not the GFS. I check in once or twice a day usually after 12z in quiet periods like this. 11-14th period looks even more interesting today than it did yesterday imo. People also need to stop looking at the shitty GFS... Euro flexes the SE ridge in the day 10 like the GFS but we've seen that be overdone all year long. Euro AI at 6z was close to a decent miller b on the 10-11th followed by 2 more threats after that. Mid month looks like the precip opens up, whether or not we have the cold in place will be TBD, but it will be lurking close by. I don't think the pattern in that timeframe screams all snow, but it definitely looks wintry imo. I also would not sleep on Friday night/sat morning, would not be surprised if someone gets a quick inch or two at all.

I'm the same especially based on how the GFS has been this winter. It's like the boy that cried wolf.  I blame Ralph. Every time someone blurts out "Buckle Up" The pattern relaxes and we are here bitching about the lack of precip. 

We got a few more weeks to keep an eye on then the pattern will ease, and then we all know how bi-polar March is when it comes to weather.  By then I am mostly checked out as I want the warmer weather, and I want to get back into my garage drinking escapades on the weekends. 

 

In other news there were a couple flakes flying this morning in West Chester. 

[mattinpa]

13 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

I'm the same especially based on how the GFS has been this winter. It's like the boy that cried wolf.  I blame Ralph. Every time someone blurts out "Buckle Up" The pattern relaxes and we are here bitching about the lack of precip. 

We got a few more weeks to keep an eye on then the pattern will ease, and then we all know how bi-polar March is when it comes to weather.  By then I am mostly checked out as I want the warmer weather, and I want to get back into my garage drinking escapades on the weekends. 

 

In other news there were a couple flakes flying this morning in West Chester. 

It usually takes me until April to be ready for spring due to how short the season is (December is usually when we get our first true winter weather) and my appetite for snow. If we cash in during the upcoming period, I would be more ready early. I like the fact we got a good winter - have had enough mild ones lately that some I talk to seem to forget what it’s like. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'm just skeptical of the prospect of record 70+ degree warmth in the middle of the month. I would love for it to happen, but with how cold it has been for most of the winter and the beginning of this month, I just don't see it happening.

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

Finally hit 32 around 10:30 am this morning.  First time since January 23 when I had a high of 37 (10 days).  The leftover glaciers on the edges of streets are treacherous though, as well as the huge plowed mounds on the street corners.  

Currently sunny and 35 after a low of 21, with dp 20.  I did see the full moon early this morning through some "snow clouds", so that cloud deck did keep it from bottoming out.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Hurricane Schwartz new video says Groundhog is wrong, not 6 weeks of winter left....

 

 

 

He actually says this winter will last alot longer than normal this year likely into April due to the unusually strong negative  and sustained AO, among other factors. Reminded viewers that the top 5 or 6 snowiest winters had severe negative AO, but not even nearly as strong  nor sustained as 25-26.

 

[Birds~69]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm just skeptical of the prospect of record 70+ degree warmth in the middle of the month. I would love for it to happen, but with how cold it has been for most of the winter and the beginning of this month, I just don't see it happening.

 

33F/Mostly Cloudy

[RedSky]

30F and overcast

Not gone make it 

 

[Birds~69]

15 minutes ago, RedSky said:

30F and overcast

Not gone make it 

 

Airport may hit 32F...

[Birds~69]

2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Airport may hit 32F...

Looks like it did...

[The Iceman]

34F, legit felt nice out during my lunch walk especially in the sun.

[Birds~69]

Just now, The Iceman said:

34F, legit felt nice out during my lunch walk especially in the sun.

I have high clouds not pure sun but yeah, you can feel it...

33F/calm

[JTA66]

Currently 35F. My forecast high for tomorrow is 29F, so no official heatwave.

[jwilson]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hurricane Schwartz new video says Groundhog is wrong, not 6 weeks of winter left....

He actually says this winter will last alot longer than normal this year likely into April due to the unusually strong negative  and sustained AO, among other factors. Reminded viewers that the top 5 or 6 snowiest winters had severe negative AO, but not even nearly as strong  nor sustained as 25-26.

Not that I enjoy refuting Schwartz here, but wasn't the -AO from 2009/10 winter much more sustained, overall?

It averaged -3.4 in December, -2.6 in January, and -4.3 in February.  The AO actually had a positive average this past December.

January is clearly going to be negative, and I'd guess February is, too, but it's flowing positive in the short-term and the rest of the month is TBD.

Even in 12/13, there were negative AO departures from October to March.