E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[RedSky]

Clipper explosion at 270 hrs is all I got its like dry antarctica moving forward

 

[RedSky]

Why is anybody saying the Nam would have been nice

[RedSky]

Its too cold to snow- old man shouts at cloud

[The Iceman]

12 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Its too cold to snow- old man shouts at cloud

Not too cold for Boston apparently lol

[Heisy]

Annoying off run Euro/eps runs keeping us alive

[Heisy]

Almost 18 members get us to 5-6”

[JTA66]

2 hours ago, Violentweatherfan said:

What are your thoughts regarding the possibility of cutbacks (lack of funding) to NOAA/NWS impacting model data early on and then getting better sampling later. Therefore odd model solutions 

You would have to think less data going in results in less accurate outcomes. But to what extent? That question is above my pay grade. 

[Violentweatherfan]

1 minute ago, JTA66 said:

You would have to think less data going in results in less accurate outcomes. But to what extent? That question is above my pay grade. 

My thinking is could this be the reason the models are playing catch up

[Duca892]

I will choose to believe the 18z EURO has started a massive westward trend so I can piss and moan tonight during the 0z suite.

[Birds~69]

42 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Its too cold to snow- old man shouts at cloud

Probably the same old man who shouts "get the hell off my lawn!" during the warm months... 

11F

[The Iceman]

17 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Almost 18 members get us to 5-6”

The off hour euro has been doing this the last two days. Ticks NW off hour before going back east at 00z or 12z. Encouraging but would love to see 2 consecutive runs.

[The Iceman]

14 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I will choose to believe the 18z EURO has started a massive westward trend so I can piss and moan tonight during the 0z suite.

You threw in the towel 3 days ago what do you mean 

[ChescoWx]

2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

This will drive ChescoWx nuts. He'll whip out 5 different spreadsheets in a jiffy to prove this guy wrong...

Today, from the Fox29 facebook page:

10F @ 6pm

LOL! I have to check out that FB and set old Anthony straight!!! I meet these folks all the time....my dad always told me how often it snowed in the 1950's until I showed him the facts.....he said well maybe they didn't clean the streets up as well. This is why I love weather facts over what folks remember. Sadly our memories seem to be faulty about many things and one of the most consistent is the belief it was colder or snowier back then! Whenever back then was. The actual climate data and observations never fail us!!

[RedSky]

4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Probably the same old man who shouts "get the hell off my lawn!" during the warm months... 

11F

A shiny nickel though if you cut that lawn

[Duca892]

3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

You threw in the towel 3 days ago what do you mean 

I have picked the towel back up to throw it again 

[coastal front]

It feels great that the aifis trended better as well as the ukie. Gives me more hope that this 18z euro hopefully isn’t a mirage.


.

[ChescoWx]

The NWS forecast for many spots across Chester County has low temperatures falling to below zero for the next 3 mornings. To put that in perspective. I have lived here in East Nantmeal and have been taking daily observations for the last 23 years. For the first 9 years from 2004-2013 we never had a below zero reading. Since 2014 we have had only 7 such days and have never even experienced consecutive days below zero. Of note East Nantmeal is at a relatively higher elevation at 685 ft asl. Some relatively low spots like Warwick Township (407 ft asl) have had 12 subzero days since 2012. Below is the list of the only below zero days here in East Nantmeal.

1/31/19 - 4.8 below

2/20/15 - 3.1 below

2/16/15 - 2.8 below

1/7/14 - 1.6 below

1/24/11 - 1.2 below

1/22/14 - 1.0 below

2/24/15 - 0.3 below

[dseagull]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

I will choose to believe the 18z EURO has started a massive westward trend so I can piss and moan tonight during the 0z suite.

Piss and moan to me first...  I'll take a crack at where the trend may verify.  Looking at the very few occlusions that occur from Augusta, GA to Charleston, SC... Id say the digging was exaggerated.    The kicker doesnt seem too "forwardly" progressive...

 

Timing... could be a thread-the-needle outcome.   Those counting this out... premature.  

[Duca892]

GFS sticking with its 7th-9th range at the next shot it seems. Boring boring until then and frigging cold

[Mikeymac5306]

53 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

GFS sticking with its 7th-9th range at the next shot it seems. Boring boring until then and frigging cold

Euro looks like it's trying to spin up another coastal in that timeframe as well.  That's what we got unless a miracle happens today. (which I doubt)

[Hurricane Agnes]

We have been coming into 12k NAM range and the 6z out to 84 (its cutoff) was a complete fish storm for this area.

[MickeyTim6533]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

GFS sticking with its 7th-9th range at the next shot it seems. Boring boring until then and frigging cold

snooze fest

 

[Lucy Pull]

AI models much more enthusiastic about Feb.5 potential. Resembling a SWFE with potential transfer.
 

Something to keep an eye on at least.

[Heisy]

AI models much more enthusiastic about Feb.5 potential. Resembling a SWFE with potential transfer.
 
Something to keep an eye on at least.

100%, that’s the next threat, end of euro op actually looked interesting. Reel it in Lucy

[JTA66]

Plug pulled

Towel tossed

Can kicked 

Fat lady sang

Belt unbuckled

Patience watches re-hoisted

[Heisy]

Thought the look on the models reminded me of Feb 3-4 1995, and what do you know, it’s on the top 5 day 6-10 analogs. I’m a sicko like that haha

[ChescoWx]

Well, most spots stayed above zero including here in East Nantmeal where our low was 5.5 above zero. A couple of our network stations reached below zero with both Warwick Township (-6.5 below) and Nottingham (-0.3). A reinforcing shot of arctic air arrives later today so the NWS continues to have most spots with below zero low temperatures again tonight and Friday night. The coastal storm this weekend continues to look likely to stay far enough southeast of our area to give us no more than flurries. Any potential snow accumulation looks to be confined to the shore points. Either way our persistent cold pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future. In fact, the longer-range ensemble models have us staying below freezing both day and night through at least mid-February! This if it occurred may be one of our greatest sustained cold periods on record with data back to 1894. I will need to do a little digging on that one. Either way stay warm!

[Heisy]

Thought the look on the models reminded me of Feb 3-4 1995, and what do you know, it’s on the top 5 day 6-10 analogs. I’m a sicko like that haha

#1 analog is 2005 event, the storm that happened before eagles beat falcons to get to superbowl

[JTA66]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

#1 analog is 2005 event, the storm that happened before eagles beat falcons to get to superbowl

That was a good storm, except we dry slotted for a period in the afternoon which kept it from being a great storm. Still, I'd sign up for a repeat.