E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Violentweatherfan]

26 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Ai ECM also south

CMC south

 

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yep, starting to morph into an entirely different setup if we are being honest. 

I the cold is overdone and the model runs today are reacting to it

[Ralph Wiggum]

If atmosphere has memory, which I do believe in similar tendencies, this will likely be another minor event like either last Saturday or Sunday, respectively. 

[anthonyweather]

45 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Ai ECM also south

CMC south

CMC is the most northern......

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

CMC is the most northern......

CMC ensembles south

[LanghorneSnow]

Is the moisture on land for this storm? Wouldn’t that be important for sampling? Shouldn’t we wait to see how the moisture phases before buying any model prediction? And shouldn’t we wait to see how strong the high is before going full-hog? When would we have a good understanding of the strength of the high?

I’m genuinely asking, so please don’t read this with any tone other than curiosity. It just seems that there is a lot of potential excitement, but, to me, there are a lot of questions. 
 

Whatever you all can offer, please do. I genuinely enjoy learning with each event as the discussion unfolds.

[Lucy Pull]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

CMC ensembles south

Is there an 18z CMC operational and ensemble? I know 0z to 12z the CMC ensemble increased precipitation. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

In other news, the Allen Iverson Euro at 18z still has potential after this weekend. Has a system on the 29th offshore then has this clean Miller A beast at the end of the run again:

[anthonyweather]

6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

CMC ensembles south

Ensembles were north of 00z by a lot.... Damn guy trying to punt this before the models even show it 

[Newman]

33 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Missed my chance for aurora over snow

Oof, +60Bz is absolutely insane and cruel. Probably one of the strongest CME impacts in decades and the Bz is positive instead of negative. Would've been a modern day Carrington if that came in negative

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Ensembles were north of 00z by a lot.... Damn guy trying to punt this before the models even show it 

Surface low ticked South. A new wrench in the NS traveled thru the flow in the NS and enhanced precip for the area. Wasn't directly associated with the main low off the SC/NC coast. I think drought guy alluded to this and suggested this feature will draw the stj low North. Im not sold on that happening attm.

[RedSky]

7 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Ensembles were north of 00z by a lot.... Damn guy trying to punt this before the models even show it 

The ones posted in the MA were far south

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The ones posted in the MA were far south

I think he is just looking at the qpf output? Neither of those guidance tools were ever a big hit up this way....always had the main stuff South of the area thru the Del Marva. That band ticked south but precip on the Northern edge expanded/enhanced due to the new NS feature that is showing up. Reality is, we moved away from the good banding which is now well South.  Maybe that will come North in future runs, but Im not so sure.

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I think he is just looking at the qpf output? Neither of those guidance tools were ever a big hit up this way....always had the main stuff South of the area thru the Del Marva. That band ticked south but precip on the Northern edge expanded/enhanced due to the new NS feature that is showing up. Reality is, we moved away from the good banding which is now well South.  Maybe that will come North in future runs, but Im not so sure.

We need to see a north trend at 0z 

[RedSky]

18 minutes ago, Newman said:

Oof, +60Bz is absolutely insane and cruel. Probably one of the strongest CME impacts in decades and the Bz is positive instead of negative. Would've been a modern day Carrington if that came in negative

Carrington+single digits and teens would have froze millions

[Duca892]

19 minutes ago, RedSky said:

We need to see a north trend at 0z 

As always I don’t know jack but I do feel like unless it’s a Jan 2016 situation we uh better hope that it starts 

[Fields27]

As always I don’t know jack but I do feel like unless it’s a Jan 2016 situation we uh better hope that it starts 

Didn't the models lose that storm for a suite or two before bringing it back? We have time. Nobody wants to be the jackpot 5 days out. But like you said, a N trend needs to happen soon.

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[Duca892]

23 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

Didn't the models lose that storm for a suite or two before bringing it back? We have time. Nobody wants to be the jackpot 5 days out. But like you said, a N trend needs to happen soon.

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Was one of my favorite storms ever. NAM absolutely nailed it

[Fields27]

IIRC models bullseyed the DC Baltimore and west area up until maybe 24hrs then the nam led the way with the N shift.

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[penndotguy]

So correct me if I’m wrong, there isn’t arctic air intrusion with this correct? If not what would cause suppression? Strong high pressure to the north right, this would be a miller B setup don’t they usually trend North? 

[Violentweatherfan]

6 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

So correct me if I’m wrong, there isn’t arctic air intrusion with this correct? If not what would cause suppression? Strong high pressure to the north right, this would be a miller B setup don’t they usually trend North? 

This would be an overrunning event, as of now there doesn’t appear to be any redevelopment off the coast. Most Miller B storms are from clippers that redeveloped off the Carolinas. 

The concern is the cold air mass will keep the moisture flow south. Storms follow the path of least resistance. I do believe the cold is overdone and the models are keeping most of the precip south of us