E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Mikeymac5306]

I would say Turnpike south is a crush job looking at the CMC and Ukie. 

We wait on the Euro. 

[Duca892]

Nice to see some hits but sure looks like this is a MA special 

[Mikeymac5306]

Just now, Duca892 said:

Nice to see some hits but sure looks like this is a MA special 

Yeah they are going nuts in the forum right now.  As they should. 

[ChescoWx]

The Canadian would certainly make snow birds happy...

[Ralph Wiggum]

Allen Iverson euro.is a major hit this weekend.

Then has 2 more mecs next week lol.

[Mikeymac5306]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Allen Iverson euro.is a major hit this weekend.

Then has 2 more mecs next week lol.

That Euro AI run is as almost as good as the Eagles and Phillies winning it all! 

[ChescoWx]

The 12z GFS did come north a bit from it's 6z run....let the north trend begin!! 

[Ralph Wiggum]

WTF

[RedSky]

13 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

That Euro AI run is as almost as good as the Eagles and Phillies winning it all! 

Or the Flyers first time since the 70's

[Mikeymac5306]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

WTF

Quagmire is already on the mound. Patton is warming up in the bullpen. 

[zenmsav6810]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

WTF

Crush job for Monmouth county and Fairfax, VA... bet it verifies. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

12z Ukie 10:1 & Kuchera (pick your poison).

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro ticked N. Decent signal.

[Hurricane Agnes]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro ticked N. Decent signal.

The regular EC is still running but below is the EC AI - 

[yankeex777]

I have not been following this weekends storm threat because I’m on vacay. I get back this Sunday, arriving into Philly at 12pm as of now. Am i cooked?  What’s the timing for this storm?

[Mikeymac5306]

Guess the best thing to come out of the 12z runs is the fact that there is a storm there shown on all the models. No hugging one wishing the others catch on. 

We watch for another day and by 18z Wednesday we start to dial in. 

Below is how I have felt the last 2 hours of model watching today.

 

[Newman]

If we take into account *probable* ratios, the Euro now has 6-8" extending up to Berks and Lehigh. And I don't think this is done shifting north. Even as is, I think most south of I-78 would take and roll the dice for a different jack with the next storm systems 

[ChescoWx]

24 minutes ago, Newman said:

If we take into account *probable* ratios, the Euro now has 6-8" extending up to Berks and Lehigh. And I don't think this is done shifting north. Even as is, I think most south of I-78 would take and roll the dice for a different jack with the next storm systems 

Suspect the ratios if it happens would indeed be high so the Kuchy maps may be more accurate....

[Newman]

This was a great shift north on the NAEFS from 0z to 12z. I've found that the NAEFS are just as useful as some of our other ensembles because they take the CMC and GFS guidance combined. It's sorta like a North American specific grand ensemble. Just SE of I-95/Philly jumped from 0.25 to 0.5" of QPF. 0.25" extends well up towards I-80 now. Obviously jumping ahead a bit here, but for those who end up on the northern side of the precip shield and aren't smoking cirrus, you'll usually have a solid 700mb fronto band set up and can eek out additional inches that way.

[zenmsav6810]

Its giving 2010 vibes... also a winter olympics year! 

[The Iceman]

I want to point out that the AI(both gfs and euro) both had the n shift last weekend before any other model and never really wavered. They did better than anything else imo 

[Prairie Dog]

1 hour ago, yankeex777 said:

I have not been following this weekends storm threat because I’m on vacay. I get back this Sunday, arriving into Philly at 12pm as of now. Am i cooked?  What’s the timing for this storm?

IF it's right, you will have a prolonged vacation   Major disruption of air travel  Airports will fall like domino's  Good luck   

[Chadzachadam]

Apple weather app says next expected precip is 20” of snow Sunday lol never seen that before

[The Iceman]

7 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said:

Apple weather app says next expected precip is 20” of snow Sunday lol never seen that before

Mine only says 16-19” for here  

[Ralph Wiggum]

Still an uneasy feeling for our sub forum with neither ens means budging whatsoever. Maybe an ass hair, but nothing that would make me think the AI/CMC/Ukie solutions hold water. The means are lock-step with each other right now. Very steady. Haven't seen that level of agreement in a long time.

[Lady Di]

You're gonna need a bigger shovel.

[Newman]

So obviously I don't live in SE PA anymore, I've got a comfortable met job in Florida. But these MECS/HECS are just so fun to track and a great way to keep my meteorology skills sharp. My met job down here in Florida is so focused on tropical weather, except this past weekend with the snow haha. Man I was getting so bored of sea breeze convection all summer.

When I lived in Berks throughout the 2010s and early 2020s, I think I forgot how rare storms north of 15-18" really are. For Philly, anything above 17" gets you into the top 10 of all time. And it has only snowed 2 feet there twice in recorded history. For ABE, a 20" storm puts you into the top 7 of all time. Of course, the past few years have been rough for big ones and I think it should make this even sweeter (if it does happen, no guarantees yet). We got so used to these MECS during past decades that, personally, I lost sight of how rare and treasured they really are. Remember, places like KPHL go back to the late 1800s and early 1900s sometimes with record keeping. So when you see these model outputs throwing around 1-1.5" of QPF into a cold dome with surface temps in the lower teens, you're immediately talking about something that has only happened maybe a handful of times in like 100 years. That in and of itself makes me appreciate just tracking the opportunity for something like that.

[Hurricane Agnes]

22 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said:

Apple weather app says next expected precip is 20” of snow Sunday lol never seen that before

 

13 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Mine only says 16-19” for here  

That's what prompted my sis to text this morning (Apple app).  She is in Delco and hers said 11" - 13".  

As a quick obs, I bottomed out at 15 and so far hit 33 for a high.  Currently 32 with dp 23 and lots of puffy cumulus.

[Philadelphia Wx]

Is anyone able to tell the timing of this yet? Thanks.

[ChescoWx]

Below is the number of winter events or individual measurable snow/sleet events by season here in East Nantmeal Twp. with records back to 2003. I have also included seasonal snowfall totals. We have already had 10 winter events this season. The most was back in 2014-15 with 21 events with the least in 2019-20 with just 5 winter events.