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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion


LVblizzard
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Guess the best thing to come out of the 12z runs is the fact that there is a storm there shown on all the models. No hugging one wishing the others catch on. 

We watch for another day and by 18z Wednesday we start to dial in. 

Below is how I have felt the last 2 hours of model watching today.

 

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24 minutes ago, Newman said:

If we take into account *probable* ratios, the Euro now has 6-8" extending up to Berks and Lehigh. And I don't think this is done shifting north. Even as is, I think most south of I-78 would take and roll the dice for a different jack with the next storm systems 

Suspect the ratios if it happens would indeed be high so the Kuchy maps may be more accurate....

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This was a great shift north on the NAEFS from 0z to 12z. I've found that the NAEFS are just as useful as some of our other ensembles because they take the CMC and GFS guidance combined. It's sorta like a North American specific grand ensemble. Just SE of I-95/Philly jumped from 0.25 to 0.5" of QPF. 0.25" extends well up towards I-80 now. Obviously jumping ahead a bit here, but for those who end up on the northern side of the precip shield and aren't smoking cirrus, you'll usually have a solid 700mb fronto band set up and can eek out additional inches that way.

naefs_gif.gif

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1 hour ago, yankeex777 said:

I have not been following this weekends storm threat because I’m on vacay. I get back this Sunday, arriving into Philly at 12pm as of now. Am i cooked?  What’s the timing for this storm?

IF it's right, you will have a prolonged vacation   Major disruption of air travel  Airports will fall like domino's  Good luck   

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