E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[ChescoWx]

A needed wet day ahead with rainfall amounts approaching an inch in some lucky areas. It will be chilly with temperatures in the upper 30's to lower 40's. The sun returns tomorrow but don't be surprised if you see a couple snow showers around before the Eagles game at 430pm. Temperatures will be seasonably chilly this week with the exception of Wednesday which looks to be well into the 40's to near 50 for highs before we turn much colder to end the week. There will be increasing chances of some wintry events at some point late this week and early next week.

[Newman]

2 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

You're full of good news. 

Check out the 12z GFS coming in, should be good news here 

[Newman]

Somehow the 12z GFS just became even more amped than 0z. Wow! Should be a great run. Probably brief rain to snow as the bowling ball rolls underneath

[JTA66]

Sure would be nice to get Dr. No to say “FOLKS!” 

[Mikeymac5306]

17 minutes ago, Newman said:

Check out the 12z GFS coming in, should be good news here 

LOL Just saw Good lord! Definitely  giggity worthy! 

Just need the EurNo to come on board. 

[JTA66]

Much less exciting outcomes on the Canadian and ICON so far. Who’d a thunk?

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Newman said:

Admittedly I hadn't looked at the individual ensembles until now. You're right, the 0z Euro only had maybe 4 indis that even showed a coastal scraper. Haven't seen the 6z yet

And in perfect timing the new 12z gefs now have a cluster of lows in the vicinity. From nothing to this in 1 run....might be getting closer to having something here. 6z top vs 12z bottom

 

[Newman]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And in perfect timing the new 12z gefs now have a cluster of lows in the vicinity. From nothing to this in 1 run....might be getting closer to having something here

Yep, quite a few more legit storms on the GEFS. If this trend continues, we'll probably reach an inflection point. Still don't trust the GFS fully, but at least there's something on our side and all models at 12z have been improvements, some significant

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Newman said:

Yep, quite a few more legit storms on the GEFS. If this trend continues, we'll probably reach an inflection point. Still don't trust the GFS fully, but at least there's something on our side and all models at 12z have been improvements, some significant

Its a tough somehwat complicated setup, thus why im not really biting just yet. I mean, the pv located east of  Nunavut in N Quebec province has a sw pinwheeling around the rear quadrant and we are pinning our hopes on this diving almost due S or even Southwest and being timed just right for a phase. There is a little wiggle room and this isnt necessarily threading a fine needle, but if we are going to score a MECS out of this, alot has to go just right. 

[Mikeymac5306]

27 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Much less exciting outcomes on the Canadian and ICON so far. Who’d a thunk?

At least its showing both storms all be it in different outcomes. 

[Newman]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Its a tough somehwat complicated setup, thus why im not really biting just yet. I mean, the pv located east of  Nunavut in N Quebec province has a sw pinwheeling around the rear quadrant and we are pinning our hopes on this diving almost due S or even Southwest and being timed just right for a phase. There is a little wiggle room and this isnt necessarily threading a fine needle, but if we are going to score a MECS out of this, alot has to go just right. 

Alot is dependent on what that TPV lobe does. The Canadian is vastly different from the GFS and dives that south into the country, the GFS scoots it east. Ideally, we want it to get out of the way like the GFS and just let the energy consolidate/cut off on its own

[Mikeymac5306]

8 minutes ago, Newman said:

Alot is dependent on what that TPV lobe does. The Canadian is vastly different from the GFS and dives that south into the country, the GFS scoots it east. Ideally, we want it to get out of the way like the GFS and just let the energy consolidate/cut off on its own

If it cuts off it will just sit there correct? 

[RedSky]

Nice salt rinse today much needed

 

[Newman]

13 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

If it cuts off it will just sit there correct? 

Like the 12z GFS advertised, yes if the energy diving down the ridge can cut off, it'll vertically stack and just crawl along the coast. What helps the GFS is that shortwave energy is super amped and dives meridionally down the ridge, so it amplifies the heights out ahead of it through PVA and T-advection very sharply, and then so much so that the trough cuts off. 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Newman said:

Like the 12z GFS advertised, yes if the energy diving down the ridge can cut off, it'll vertically stack and just crawl along the coast. What helps the GFS is that shortwave energy is super amped and dives meridionally down the ridge, so it amplifies the heights out ahead of it through PVA and T-advection very sharply, and then so much so that the trough cuts off. 

Euro is almost there. Big shift to the gfs.

[Newman]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is almost there. Big shift to the gfs.

Very close, EPS will be telling

[MJO812]

Just now, Newman said:

Very close, EPS will be telling

Need the kicker to be slightly more west.

[Newman]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Need the kicker to be slightly more west.

Even as is interior locations get widespread 4-8". Tighten it up a bit more and it's the GFS

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, Newman said:

Somehow the 12z GFS just became even more amped than 0z. Wow! Should be a great run. Probably brief rain to snow as the bowling ball rolls underneath

I love those rain / wet snow at 43f to pulverizing snowstorms that end with sleet / rain and a rainbow AKA March 1993.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And in perfect timing the new 12z gefs now have a cluster of lows in the vicinity. From nothing to this in 1 run....might be getting closer to having something here. 6z top vs 12z bottom

 

 

Much better the first step of what I was looking for now see if the OPS pull this out of the hat moving forward. 

[Newman]

EPS last 3 runs trend. Again as is, the 12z Euro still gives much of the Lehigh Valley 4-8" of snow

[penndotguy]

44 minutes ago, Newman said:

Like the 12z GFS advertised, yes if the energy diving down the ridge can cut off, it'll vertically stack and just crawl along the coast. What helps the GFS is that shortwave energy is super amped and dives meridionally down the ridge, so it amplifies the heights out ahead of it through PVA and T-advection very sharply, and then so much so that the trough cuts off. 

Whew, Vertically stacked when’s the last time we heard that mentioned? 

[Newman]

8 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Whew, Vertically stacked when’s the last time we heard that mentioned? 

Ha, well 2016 was one. I know 2021 had h500 closed off but it wasn't vertically stacked. 

[Duca892]

So we have the GFS/EURO with warning level snow for Thursday into Friday for the Lehigh Valley.

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, Newman said:

Ha, well 2016 was one. I know 2021 had h500 closed off but it wasn't vertically stacked. 

Dec 2009? and Feb 2010 maybe too.

[RedSky]

CMC/UKMET and all the ensembles and Ai don't think much about next week

Go with the drought solution if we get a storm it will be 3-6" which isn't bad

[Newman]

The top CIPS analog from the 12z GFS is 1996 lol. No I'm not forecasting or even implying this could reach to that level.

[Duca892]

What would it take for this to become real to most? This thing isn’t that long out. It’s in midrange. EURO/GFS is warning level snows for many in this target area. Seeing the EURO jump up like that was awesome. Other than the GFS holding at 18z. What would others like to see latch on next 

[Duca892]

18z GFS holds for a warning level snow for many y

[JTA66]

Yeah, at this range all I want to see is the models consistently having blue over us. In less exciting news…

Approaching .70” in the bucket, 39F.