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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion


LVblizzard
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On 1/7/2026 at 1:49 PM, LVblizzard said:

Booked a ski trip to Vermont after MLK Day so expect an I-95 special around 1/20-1/23. That’s how it works, right?

Probably not because I'm going to Vermont 1/25-1/27. So, if there's one when you're away, there has to be one when I'm not away, which has close to 0% chance of happening.

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Mild temperatures continue today with rain chances increasing this afternoon. A brief break in the rain tonight before we turn chillier with more rain tomorrow into Saturday night. Temperatures turn colder after Sunday with temperatures not too far from normal for mid-January before trending much colder by the end of next week into the weekend. We could see between 0.75” to 1” of rain tomorrow night. Winter weather opportunities start to ramp up by later next week.

image.png.4c60523d9399c9c2cc9c15f2c726e633.pngimage.thumb.png.7baa6b8d0817cdb9114bdac74ca1e0d6.png

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Philly smacked on the gfs next week

gfs_eus_pratefrz_2026011000_f150.png

See I told you the 18z gfs 1/9/26 would be 100% different at 0z!  So, where is the cold high up north? Hmm I mean however a 983mb storm would manufacture its own cold air.  Let’s go!!!  
 

Now back on the ground I need to see this at least for 6 runs on at least 3 different models before I do the snowy dance. It’s a shame the gfs is on an island by itself.  I’m not buying it, but fun to look at and reminisce about winters of the past. 

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3 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

See I told you the 18z gfs 1/9/26 would be 100% different at 0z!  So, where is the cold high up north? Hmm I mean however a 983mb storm would manufacture its own cold air.  Let’s go!!!  
 

Now back on the ground I need to see this at least for 6 runs on at least 3 different models before I do the snowy dance. It’s a shame the gfs is on an island by itself.  I’m not buying it, but fun to look at and reminisce about winters of the past. 

 I posted this on the 12/27

Winter is going to take a brief break after this BS first of the year storm of only 1-3 inches if we are really lucky. I see no snowstorms until after the 15th and it will warm up into the upper 40's to 50's . I do think we will pay the piper for this brief warm up by Marin Luther Kings day--  seems to be the pattern the last 5 years.

All I can say is the drought situation  in our area is only going to worsen as the Gulf storm production  is shut down for business.  Believe me, dried up wells and sinkhole formation with dropping groundwater tables with waterline breaks galore will be the talk of the town in the next three weeks as the ground starts to thaw out with what little moisture is in it.  The base flows of the creeks will begin to drop again too. We really need a 96 type of storm event asap.

 

Still holding--------

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I mean 6z gfs at least has something for January 15th just weaker 995 mb instead of 983 mb more realistic later to develop and much more progressive.  At least we still have something to track!  It’s definitely not dead yet! 
 

Lots of moving pieces but if we are to get something significant we need both jet streams to play and a block to slow things down to allow that to happen.

I think reality though is basically it’s going to get colder but stay progressive unfortunately with a quick hit of snow.

if you’re looking for the crusher this pattern right now probably isn’t it.  Let’s see what happens though.  I’ll play the patience card and watch NFL playoff football and hope my Eagles and fantasy playoff team can deliver in the meantime!

 

 

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The Euro has been ticking slowly to the GFS for the 15-16th deal. We really need the southern vort to not get stuck behind the northern energy or else you get destructive wave interference. The 6z Euro jumped closer to better phasing and more favorable orientation. Continue watching for now, I don't think we've seen the final solution yet (for better or for worse). The 0z GFS was bonkers and probably the ceiling loltrend-ecmwf_full-2026011006-f123.500hv.conus.gif.3be0b319096e9661ee71ff3f987ea5bb.gif

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8 minutes ago, Newman said:

The Euro has been ticking slowly to the GFS for the 15-16th deal. We really need the southern vort to not get stuck behind the northern energy or else you get destructive wave interference. The 6z Euro jumped closer to better phasing and more favorable orientation. Continue watching for now, I don't think we've seen the final solution yet (for better or for worse). The 0z GFS was bonkers and probably the ceiling loltrend-ecmwf_full-2026011006-f123.500hv.conus.gif.3be0b319096e9661ee71ff3f987ea5bb.gif

Definitely an improved look on the euro. I wonder why the ens are all so meh with this. Nary a hint. Even 500mb means haven't moved. They've all been sold on weak sauce, late developing, and/or way ots.

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25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Definitely an improved look on the euro. I wonder why the ens are all so meh with this. Nary a hint. Even 500mb means haven't moved. They've all been sold on weak sauce, late developing, and/or way ots.

I think having a 51 member ensemble will inherently result in a pretty smoothed look over what is a fickle setup and truly boom or bust. However, even a few more ticks towards the GFS on the Euro ENS will probably start to yield at least some light upper level snows. Ride the ensembles though, them having nothing shows the low probability of this happening until we see more support

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Remember last February where the models were showing a HECS in the 120-160hour range, and then they completely backed off in literally like one model cycle after it was clear the massive TPV wasn't going to phase properly with our southern vort? That's what could happen again here, but maybe we trend more favorably? Just have to watch it play out

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35 minutes ago, Newman said:

I think having a 51 member ensemble will inherently result in a pretty smoothed look over what is a fickle setup and truly boom or bust. However, even a few more ticks towards the GFS on the Euro ENS will probably start to yield at least some light upper level snows. Ride the ensembles though, them having nothing shows the low probability of this happening until we see more support

I apologize, I was talking about the individual members, not the means. Not a whole lot of support with them.

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30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I apologize, I was talking about the individual members, not the means. Not a whole lot of support with them.

Admittedly I hadn't looked at the individual ensembles until now. You're right, the 0z Euro only had maybe 4 indis that even showed a coastal scraper. Haven't seen the 6z yet

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2 hours ago, Newman said:

Remember last February where the models were showing a HECS in the 120-160hour range, and then they completely backed off in literally like one model cycle after it was clear the massive TPV wasn't going to phase properly with our southern vort? That's what could happen again here, but maybe we trend more favorably? Just have to watch it play out

You're full of good news. 

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