First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[CoastalWx]

In my dreams I envision a 12/6/96. @ORH_wxman    

[Baroclinic Zone]

I wonder how modeling is handling the NAO flip. How much feedback is there. Shunting storm further S.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I don’t think you need to be concerned about anything yet.  We basically have everything from over the Cape to a near whiff on the table, although I don’t think either of those solutions will verify.

Early season, keep expectations low, and hope for a few inches of paste. I don’t think this is a double digit storm for anybody.

My worry is the GFS being so consistent, Generally it’s a bad model but everytime it sniffs something out first ( this storm) and then never loses it.. it seems that everything ultimately caves to it. Just would like to see it come SE starting today 

[dendrite]

The s/w starts coming ashore around 12z. I think it’ll be more into the RAOB network for the 00z runs…if you’re into believing in that sorta thing in this day and age in weather modeling.

Anyway, that s/w has been digging into the SW and over the 4 corners region before coming out into the midwest. Over the last day or so there’s been another weaker northern piece that has been working in over the midwest. On most runs they’ve been lockstep and the system has been able to amplify some as it reaches our region. They seem a little more disjointed on the 6z euro…either it’s getting out ahead of the main s/w or the main one is lagging behind a bit. Either way it seems to be flattening the flow and not allowing the main s/w to amplify much and the whole thing remains more positively tilted as it reaches us. The end result is a much weaker/south system. Here’s the last 4 runs of H5 from the euro valid 3z Wed. 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My worry is the GFS being so consistent, Generally it’s a bad model but everytime it sniffs something out first ( this storm) and then never loses it.. it seems that everything ultimately caves to it. Just would like to see it come SE starting today 

GFS has not performed well. I feel it’s been too amplified.

[SouthCoastMA]

As some said, wish this was a month later. Looks like heavy rain here, but maybe we can go isothermal for an hour or two to get the ground whitened

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The s/w starts coming ashore around 12z. I think it’ll be more into the RAOB network for the 00z runs…if you’re into believing in that sorta thing in this day and age in weather modeling.

Anyway, that s/w has been digging into the SW and over the 4 corners region before coming out into the midwest. Over the last day or so there’s been another weaker northern piece that has been working in over the midwest. On most runs they’ve been lockstep and the system has been able to amplify some as it reaches our region. They seem a little more disjointed on the 6z euro…either it’s getting out ahead of the main s/w or the main one is lagging behind a bit. Either way it seems to be flattening the flow and not allowing the main s/w to amplify much and the whole thing remains more positively tilted as it reaches us. The end result is a much weaker/south system. Here’s the last 4 runs of H5 from the euro valid 3z Wed. 

 

It’s funny how different the depiction is for our s/w with each run. But when you don’t have a real coherent one and a few weaker pieces comprising the trough, that will happen.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

As some said, wish this was a month later. Looks like heavy rain here, but maybe we can go isothermal for an hour or two to get the ground whitened

If the flatter scenario plays out…that would probably play out colder there…no? 

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The s/w starts coming ashore around 12z. I think it’ll be more into the RAOB network for the 00z runs…if you’re into believing in that sorta thing in this day and age in weather modeling.

Anyway, that s/w has been digging into the SW and over the 4 corners region before coming out into the midwest. Over the last day or so there’s been another weaker northern piece that has been working in over the midwest. On most runs they’ve been lockstep and the system has been able to amplify some as it reaches our region. They seem a little more disjointed on the 6z euro…either it’s getting out ahead of the main s/w or the main one is lagging behind a bit. Either way it seems to be flattening the flow and not allowing the main s/w to amplify much and the whole thing remains more positively tilted as it reaches us. The end result is a much weaker/south system. Here’s the last 4 runs of H5 from the euro valid 3z Wed. 

 

Thanks for putting my earlier comment into a more detailed response. 

[dendrite]

Here’s what I was eyeing from the 6z run out west

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

As some said, wish this was a month later. Looks like heavy rain here, but maybe we can go isothermal for an hour or two to get the ground whitened

If the euro is right, I could see one of those deals where Brett maybe flips to some paste while it struggles here. Simply from being away from the warmer water. I don’t expect much of anything here, I was hoping maybe some tail end stuff.  That 95 corridor in interior SE MA looks interesting. 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If the flatter scenario plays out…that would probably play out colder there…no? 

Kinda need a deep system to get the rates. More of a thread the needle situation, but still super early here to expect anything. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Kinda need a deep system to get the rates. More of a thread the needle situation, but still super early here. 

Rates will matter for sure where it’s borderline.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s funny how different the depiction is for our s/w with each run. But when you don’t have a real coherent one and a few weaker pieces comprising the trough, that will happen.

GFS has been quick to take that s/w and push it further north over upper Midwest while euro is a bit slower and has s/w further south.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Here’s what I was eyeing from the 6z run out west

Good visual, thanks. And this is what we see most times, when we follow a potential from a week out…something always shows up as we close in(a scooter shit streak, another little piece of energy, etc…) to change the scenario just enough, that wasn’t seen from afar.  It’s to be expected when following something that is far out in time.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If the euro is right, I could see one of those deals where Brett maybe flips to some paste while it struggles here. Simply from being away from the warmer water. I don’t expect much of anything here, I was hoping maybe some tail end stuff.  That 95 corridor in interior SE MA looks interesting. 

The euro and Canadian are interesting here. It’s close. Obviously if anything close to the gfs verifies we are cooked, but could see some accumulation here depending on which model is right 

[dendrite]

Goofus actually has another somewhat strong s/w behind the main one. Maybe acting a bit as a kicker to speed it up?

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The euro and Canadian are interesting here. It’s close. Obviously if anything close to the gfs verifies we are cooked, but could see some accumulation here depending on which model is right 

Let’s get George 6” and you a coating 

[WinterWolf]

Heh, at least it’s something legit to track, and we have some interesting weather upcoming…that’s a win this early, and a change from the last few years. I’ll take this. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If the euro is right, I could see one of those deals where Brett maybe flips to some paste while it struggles here. Simply from being away from the warmer water. I don’t expect much of anything here, I was hoping maybe some tail end stuff.  That 95 corridor in interior SE MA looks interesting. 

I thought most areas would be paste if all snow ?

[radarman]

Member when the euro products would only make small run to run moves inside day 4?

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I thought most areas would be paste if all snow ?

If that Euro solution from 0z played out…that wouldn’t be paste for us imo. But we still don’t really know which way this is going yet. I think obviously if things are really borderline..it’s a paste deal to rain. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

If that Euro solution from 0z played out…that wouldn’t be paste for us imo. But we still don’t really know which way this is going yet. I think obviously if things are really borderline..it’s a last deal to rain. 

I think it would be 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

Member when the euro products would only make small run to run moves inside day 4?

Yes…this is what I meant. It would already be predominantly locked in now. Ahh that’s when it was something special:,

[moneypitmike]

33 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

The models run too many times per day. Just run them at 00 and 12z and then nobody has to live and die by these stupid off hour runs.

 

Then we would need to lead productive lives.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think it would be 

Not paste if that Euro deal played out..but it was just another solution anyway, so it’s a moot point. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Not paste if that Euro deal played out..but it was just another solution anyway, so it’s a moot point. 

Just going what Scooter and Scoots Jr. said yesterday 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get George 6” and you a coating 

Hey, my expectations couldn’t be lower lol.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think it would be 

No it wound be like 28-30F for you. Not really pasty. Maybe for a brief time early on. 

[ORH_wxman]

The thing is, if you amped the euro solution from 00z just a bit more, then you and me would prob see a lot more paste, Kevin since we’d be closer to 0C from like 900mb to surface. But if it’s more like -2C then it’s gonna be more powdery.