bncho Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Welcome to the uncancellation of the cancellation of the uncancellation of the cancellation of winter! We are so back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Like I said yesterday, models aren't going to pick up discrete threats in the Jan 5-12 timeframe until we get to New Years and that's why the models look dry and "boring". Only now the Euro shows something for Jan 6. It won't verify verbatim probably, but something is there. I didn't think it would show a threat this soon. OTOH, 12z GFS has 2-3 cutters (which probably won't verify verbatim either). Do you believe in the Jan mid month warm up before the pattern realigns with an improved Pac? Seems the best Jan snow potential is Jan 6 th to the 10 th, and then after Jan 18 th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Just now, frd said: Do you believe in the Jan mid month warm up before the pattern realigns with an improved Pac? Seems the best Jan snow potential is Jan 6 th to the 10 th, and then after Jan 18 th. I would say that blocking will likely subside around Jan 10-15 before a bigger storm threat around Jan 18-23 with a -EPO/AO/NAO and +PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: My very casual looking the last couple days suggests next chance might be a clipper or some snow along an arctic front around NYD. And here we go. Its a possibility with NS energy moving along the boundary with a reinforcing cold shot as advertised. Something to keep an eye on. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, frd said: Do you believe in the Jan mid month warm up before the pattern realigns with an improved Pac? Seems the best Jan snow potential is Jan 6 th to the 10 th, and then after Jan 18 th. Hard to say. Warm ups have been getting muted as they get closer in time. Storm tracks get pushed south (like it did for NYC today). It's just too chaotic to get a handle on it all until we get inside 120 hours. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 40 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro has a monster i think lol Miller Bs never do much for mid Atlantic 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Ji said: it looked good for a while...smh. the primary ended up going to far north A legit block in place as it approaches would help- as is the HP is in a good spot initially but then shifts further NE. One run though- a few tweaks in the pattern could result in a better outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Miller Bs never do much for mid Atlantic Eh, be careful. Many of our good events are technically Miller B/hybrid. Relatively few are Miller A. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: And here we go. Its a possibility with NS energy moving along the boundary with a reinforcing cold shot as advertised. Something to keep an eye on. Interesting trends centered on this time period. https://x.com/i/status/2004599913410081210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx Euro weeklies have strong -EPO and +PNA with -AO conditions by 3rd week of January, which would favor another big cold outbreak (1/23 EIA week). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Eh, be careful. Many of our good events are technically Miller B/hybrid. Relatively few are Miller A. One of the best storms/legit blizzards of my lifetime was Feb 9-10 2010.. a Miller B. https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/10-Feb-10-SurfaceMaps.html 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Some STJ action maybe 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Eh, be careful. Many of our good events are technically Miller B/hybrid. Relatively few are Miller A. Yea it’s not about Miller ABC, it’s about whether there’s a southern stream. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 hours ago, dailylurker said: Looks like a chance at tumble weeds on the gfs. A real snooze fest lol It's been 6 straight months of this. And if you removed May 2025 and Sep 2024 it's been well over 3 straight years of this (at least here locally). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, 87storms said: Yea it’s not about Miller ABC, it’s about whether there’s a southern stream. That and probably more importantly a north Atlantic block that forces the thermal boundary southward along the coast as an OV low tries to move northeastward, causing a new low to form. Gotta have more blocking, baby! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Decent signal for a coastal low on the 12z EPS with a favorable h5 look up top. 17 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Decent signal for a coastal low on the 12z EPS with a favorable h5 look up top. What would make it better than a decent signal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Ji said: What would make it better than a decent signal? Being less than one trillion hours away 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Ji said: What would make it better than a decent signal? Having it persist inside of 10 days for one lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Not really going to do it with 507dm over Alaska. Surface cold air is cutoff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Today's Euro weeklies for Jan 19-26 have a colder look Equal chances on todays 3-4 Week CPC outlook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The CPC now says trending WET January 1 - 9. The Euro and GFS says trending DRY Jan. 1 - 9. Who would You put your money on? The CPC has been wrong for so long, they gotta be right some time. OK CPC, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18 minutes ago, stormy said: The CPC now says trending WET January 1 - 9. The Euro and GFS says trending DRY Jan. 1 - 9. Who would You put your money on? The CPC has been wrong for so long, they gotta be right some time. OK CPC, I believe. Take your pick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Not really going to do it with 507dm over Alaska. Surface cold air is cutoff. Exactly. Need that out of there ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Nice westerly wind burst along the equatorial Pacific forecasted on the weeklies that's on our doorstep. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 40 minutes ago, stormy said: The CPC now says trending WET January 1 - 9. The Euro and GFS says trending DRY Jan. 1 - 9. Who would You put your money on? The CPC has been wrong for so long, they gotta be right some time. OK CPC, I believe. i always go with the models. With that being said---the euro is not dry for that time period. Its normal with above normal in the gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I don't know why but I like the way Jan 2026 looks more than I did Jan 2025. Maybe it's because I'm thinking we'll have more precipitation to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago 46 minutes ago, Ji said: i always go with the models. With that being said---the euro is not dry for that time period. Its normal with above normal in the gulf This is the map that I was using: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 50 minutes ago Share Posted 50 minutes ago Arctic front around New Years ends up dry this run for us. Potential is there for a quick shot of snow with NS energy moving along the front as we saw on the 12z run. Pretty impressive h5 look.. nice cold shot at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 49 minutes ago Share Posted 49 minutes ago 18z GFS shaping up for a nice small hit on the 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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