December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

Welcome to the uncancellation of the cancellation of the uncancellation of the cancellation of winter! We are so back. 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Like I said yesterday, models aren't going to pick up discrete threats in the Jan 5-12 timeframe until we get to New Years and that's why the models look dry and "boring". 

Only now the Euro shows something for Jan 6. It won't verify verbatim probably, but something is there. I didn't think it would show a threat this soon.

OTOH, 12z GFS has 2-3 cutters (which probably won't verify verbatim either). 

Do you believe in the Jan mid month warm up before the pattern realigns with an improved Pac?   

Seems the best Jan snow potential is Jan 6 th to the 10 th,  and then after Jan 18 th. 

[bncho]

Just now, frd said:

Do you believe in the Jan mid month warm up before the pattern realigns with an improved Pac?   

Seems the best Jan snow potential is Jan 6 th to the 10 th,  and then after Jan 18 th. 

I would say that blocking will likely subside around Jan 10-15 before a bigger storm threat around Jan 18-23 with a -EPO/AO/NAO and +PNA

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

My very casual looking the last couple days suggests next chance might be a clipper or some snow along an arctic front around NYD.

And here we go. Its a possibility with NS energy moving along the boundary with a reinforcing cold shot as advertised. Something to keep an eye on.

 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

Do you believe in the Jan mid month warm up before the pattern realigns with an improved Pac?   

Seems the best Jan snow potential is Jan 6 th to the 10 th,  and then after Jan 18 th. 

Hard to say. Warm ups have been getting muted as they get closer in time. Storm tracks get pushed south (like it did for NYC today). It's just too chaotic to get a handle on it all until we get inside 120 hours.

[winter_warlock]

40 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has a monster i think lol

 Miller Bs never do much for mid Atlantic 

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

it looked good for a while...smh. the primary ended up going to far north

A legit block in place as it approaches would help- as is the HP is in a good spot initially but then shifts further NE. One run though- a few tweaks in the pattern could result in a better outcome.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Miller Bs never do much for mid Atlantic 

Eh, be careful. Many of our good events are technically Miller B/hybrid. Relatively few are Miller A.

[frd]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

And here we go. Its a possibility with NS energy moving along the boundary with a reinforcing cold shot as advertised. Something to keep an eye on.

 

 

Interesting trends centered on this time period. 

 

 https://x.com/i/status/2004599913410081210

 

 

[frd]

 

Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx

 

 

Euro weeklies have strong -EPO and +PNA with -AO conditions by 3rd week of January, which would favor another big cold outbreak (1/23 EIA week).

 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Eh, be careful. Many of our good events are technically Miller B/hybrid. Relatively few are Miller A.

One of the best storms/legit blizzards of my lifetime was Feb 9-10 2010.. a Miller B.

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/10-Feb-10-SurfaceMaps.html

 

[frd]

Some STJ action maybe 

 

[87storms]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Eh, be careful. Many of our good events are technically Miller B/hybrid. Relatively few are Miller A.

Yea it’s not about Miller ABC, it’s about whether there’s a southern stream.

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like a chance at tumble weeds on the gfs. A real snooze fest lol

It's been 6 straight months of this.  And if you removed May 2025 and Sep 2024 it's been well over 3 straight years of this (at least here locally).

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Yea it’s not about Miller ABC, it’s about whether there’s a southern stream.

That and probably more importantly a north Atlantic block that forces the thermal boundary southward along the coast as an OV low tries to move northeastward, causing a new low to form.

Gotta have more blocking, baby!

[CAPE]

Decent signal for a coastal low on the 12z EPS with a favorable h5 look up top.

 

[Ji]

Decent signal for a coastal low on the 12z EPS with a favorable h5 look up top.
 

What would make it better than a decent signal?

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

What would make it better than a decent signal?

Being less than one trillion hours away

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

What would make it better than a decent signal?

Having it persist inside of 10 days for one lol.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Not really going to do it with 507dm over Alaska. Surface cold air is cutoff. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Today's Euro weeklies for Jan 19-26 have a colder look

Equal chances on todays 3-4 Week CPC outlook

[stormy]

The CPC now says trending WET January 1 - 9.       The Euro and GFS says trending DRY Jan.  1 - 9.

Who would You put your money on?   

The CPC has been wrong for so long, they gotta be right some time.  OK CPC,  I believe. 

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, stormy said:

The CPC now says trending WET January 1 - 9.       The Euro and GFS says trending DRY Jan.  1 - 9.

Who would You put your money on?   

The CPC has been wrong for so long, they gotta be right some time.  OK CPC,  I believe. 

Take your pick!

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Not really going to do it with 507dm over Alaska. Surface cold air is cutoff. 

Exactly. Need that out of there !