bncho Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It’s pretty sleety, at least. I’ll share the map once it generates. Just like 12z was, it's still a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 End result is pretty similar. Just won't budge south since 06z though. ENS will be intriguing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Sleety north. Get that wpf bomb south please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 JB says it's discontinuous retrogression and 1985 is the analog. I have no idea if that's good or bad for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Looking thru a few of the maps and saw the 18z NAM. Obviously it's the 84hr NAM (lol), but what it shows is what we need to happen. That HP is stronger and more south than what other models have such that if it were to be extrapolated I would guess that at the very, very least DC and points north would stay frozen the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 JB says it's discontinuous retrogression and 1985 is the analog. I have no idea if that's good or bad for us. Bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 1 minute ago, Ji said: Bad There are three things in life we can count on. Death, Taxes, and for JB to sniff out a snowstorm when all the models are showing torch (or anything else, for that matter). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 7 minutes ago, baltosquid said: End result is pretty similar. Just won't budge south since 06z though. ENS will be intriguing. It is literally the same as 12z for our area. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 I don’t think Boxing Day will be for us but I do like seeing the big warmth not materialize. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 17 minutes ago, bncho said: Looking thru a few of the maps and saw the 18z NAM. Obviously it's the 84hr NAM (lol), but what it shows is what we need to happen. That HP is stronger and more south than what other models have such that if it were to be extrapolated I would guess that at the very, very least DC and points north would stay frozen the whole event. 18z Gfs has the 546 height line through northern Baltimore City while the Nam has it just south of DCA. IF the Nam is closer to correct with the cold air draining further south, that's enough to make a difference for some. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Gfs has the 546 height line through northern Baltimore City while the Nam has it just south of DCA. IF the Nam is closer to correct with the cold air draining further south, that's enough to make a difference for some. It's 100% a colder look. There's also more confluence. That 546 line shifting 50 miles south could be the difference between sleet/zr/rain and sleet/snow in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 GFS would at least give the ski resorts opportunities next week to make snow with favorable upslope conditions too (blah blah OP run, I know). Good timing given Christmas and New Year crowds. Given where some thought we were heading for end of the month, it doesn't seem like we're going to be staring at days and days of warm temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 GEFS should be a bit better I think, stronger high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 1 minute ago, bncho said: It's 100% a colder look. There's also more confluence. That 546 line shifting 50 miles south could be the difference between sleet/zr/rain and sleet/snow in DC. Gfs 850's on top and Nam below. Notice wind direction too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Actually unsure of the GEFS, high may be moving out of the way too early. Probably gonna be close to the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Actually unsure of the GEFS, high may be moving out of the way too early. Probably gonna be close to the sameWe’re is it going lol. Don’t we have a 50 50 low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 GEFS was worse, basically back to 06z for it. Only a tiny bit of snow in far NE MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 48 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS manages to squeak out a little Christmas Day snow TV for some folks in northern Maryland. Torchmas Torchmas?? How warm do u think it will be?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 3 minutes ago, Ji said: We’re is it going lol. Don’t we have a 50 50 low? I think the problem is the storm itself is mainly just slower so the high isn’t as ideally placed by the time it arrives. You can see the progression of the storm slowing down run to run on the GEFS member MSLP graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 6 minutes ago, Ji said: We’re is it going lol. Don’t we have a 50 50 low? Not much different on the mean compared to 12z. Noise. Y'all get too goddamn granular on the differences between runs. 18z is a hold. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Remember this.............. Persistence can be a very good thing. How many times has a threat looked good on one run and been gone the next run?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 4 minutes ago, stormy said: Remember this.............. Persistence can be a very good thing. How many times has a threat looked good on one run and been gone the next run?? It looks good for @mitchnickand points north, and has been like that for the past 3 model runs (not just the GFS) IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 11 minutes ago, bncho said: It looks good for @mitchnickand points north, and has been like that for the past 3 model runs (not just the GFS) IMO. Thanks for the curse. Mediocre Christmas to you! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Thanks for the curse. Mediocre Christmas to you! Snowy Christmas to you too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 The GFS has quite a climactic ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Remember this.............. Persistence can be a very good thing. How many times has a threat looked good on one run and been gone the next run??Every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 What’s the timing on the potential wintry precip? Friday AM? Afternoon into evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 Euro looks 1-2 degrees colder. Haven’t seen precip panels yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 22, 2025 Share Posted December 22, 2025 18z Euro noticeably better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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