December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s pretty sleety, at least. I’ll share the map once it generates. 

Just like 12z was, it's still a good run. 

[baltosquid]

End result is pretty similar. Just won't budge south since 06z though. ENS will be intriguing.

[TSSN+]

Sleety north. Get that wpf bomb south please. 
 

 

[IronTy]

JB says it's discontinuous retrogression and 1985 is the analog.   I have no idea if that's good or bad for us.   

[bncho]

Looking thru a few of the maps and saw the 18z NAM. Obviously it's the 84hr NAM (lol), but what it shows is what we need to happen. That HP is stronger and more south than what other models have such that if it were to be extrapolated I would guess that at the very, very least DC and points north would stay frozen the whole event. 

[Ji]

JB says it's discontinuous retrogression and 1985 is the analog.   I have no idea if that's good or bad for us.   

Bad

[NorthArlington101]

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Bad

There are three things in life we can count on.  Death, Taxes, and for JB to sniff out a snowstorm when all the models are showing torch (or anything else, for that matter).  

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

End result is pretty similar. Just won't budge south since 06z though. ENS will be intriguing.

It is literally the same as 12z for our area.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I don’t think Boxing Day will be for us but I do like seeing the big warmth not materialize.

 

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, bncho said:

Looking thru a few of the maps and saw the 18z NAM. Obviously it's the 84hr NAM (lol), but what it shows is what we need to happen. That HP is stronger and more south than what other models have such that if it were to be extrapolated I would guess that at the very, very least DC and points north would stay frozen the whole event. 

18z Gfs has the 546 height line through northern Baltimore City while the Nam has it just south of DCA. IF the Nam is closer to correct with the cold air draining further south, that's enough to make a difference for some.

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gfs has the 546 height line through northern Baltimore City while the Nam has it just south of DCA. IF the Nam is closer to correct with the cold air draining further south, that's enough to make a difference for some.

It's 100% a colder look. There's also more confluence. That 546 line shifting 50 miles south could be the difference between sleet/zr/rain and sleet/snow in DC.

[nj2va]

GFS would at least give the ski resorts opportunities next week to make snow with favorable upslope conditions too (blah blah OP run, I know).  Good timing given Christmas and New Year crowds.  

Given where some thought we were heading for end of the month, it doesn't seem like we're going to be staring at days and days of warm temps.

[baltosquid]

GEFS should be a bit better I think, stronger high

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

It's 100% a colder look. There's also more confluence. That 546 line shifting 50 miles south could be the difference between sleet/zr/rain and sleet/snow in DC.

Gfs 850's on top and Nam below. Notice wind direction too.

[baltosquid]

Actually unsure of the GEFS, high may be moving out of the way too early. Probably gonna be close to the same

[Ji]

Actually unsure of the GEFS, high may be moving out of the way too early. Probably gonna be close to the same

We’re is it going lol. Don’t we have a 50 50 low?

[baltosquid]

GEFS was worse, basically back to 06z for it. Only a tiny bit of snow in far NE MD.

[winter_warlock]

48 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS manages to squeak out a little Christmas Day snow TV for some folks in northern Maryland. Torchmas 

Torchmas?? How warm do u think it will be??

[baltosquid]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

We’re is it going lol. Don’t we have a 50 50 low?

I think the problem is the storm itself is mainly just slower so the high isn’t as ideally placed by the time it arrives. You can see the progression of the storm slowing down run to run on the GEFS member MSLP graphic

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

We’re is it going lol. Don’t we have a 50 50 low?

Not much different on the mean compared to 12z. Noise. Y'all get too goddamn granular on the differences between runs. 18z is a hold.

[stormy]

Remember this.............. Persistence can be a very good thing.

How many times has a threat looked good on one run and been gone the next run??

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, stormy said:

Remember this.............. Persistence can be a very good thing.

How many times has a threat looked good on one run and been gone the next run??

It looks good for @mitchnickand points north, and has been like that for the past 3 model runs (not just the GFS) IMO.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, bncho said:

It looks good for @mitchnickand points north, and has been like that for the past 3 model runs (not just the GFS) IMO.

Thanks for the curse. Mediocre Christmas to you!

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks for the curse. Mediocre Christmas to you!

Snowy Christmas to you too!

[bncho]

The GFS has quite a climactic ending.

[Ji]

Remember this.............. Persistence can be a very good thing.
How many times has a threat looked good on one run and been gone the next run??

Every time

[mappy]

What’s the timing on the potential wintry precip? Friday AM? Afternoon into evening?

[Ji]

Euro looks 1-2 degrees colder. Haven’t seen precip panels yet

[bncho]

18z Euro noticeably better