December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I think the base Euro should be a bit norther

From the 500 vort it looks to be better than 6z but not as sharp as 0z

[bncho]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

From the 500 vort it looks to be better than 6z but not as sharp as 0z

it's a more organized system

[SnowenOutThere]

12z

6z for comparison

[bncho]

its a good run 

[SnowenOutThere]

Not bad at all

[SnowenOutThere]

Also holy shit weatherbell is so nice

[bncho]

good spot to be in with the Euro 80 hours out.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, bncho said:

good spot to be in with the Euro 80 hours out.

Man the progression is so interesting modeling wise to how we score I want to type it up but I have chemistry homework I gotta do before my 2pm Env. Sci. class

[stormtracker]

Euro is a dud for next week

[WxUSAF]

AI keeps temps in the 20s all day Friday. 

[bncho]

it's super cold as well. 

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Man the progression is so interesting modeling wise to how we score I want to type it up but I have chemistry homework I gotta do before my 2pm Env. Sci. class

Though seriously, we are in a far better spot than we were for Friday last night. We are now actually just tracking shortwave one and not shortwave 3 which I identified a couple days ago as being a way less complicated setup. 

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro is a dud for next week

First time in months that the euro ejects a southern stream wave faster than other guidance. Same pieces are there, just much more separated than on the gfs.

[dailylurker]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro is a dud for next week

Are we talking about Friday or next week? Dear I say we need a thread to separate them?

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Are we talking about Friday or next week? Dear I say we need a thread to separate them?

Yes we do, need a Friday thread, someone start it

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro AI is a slight bump north for Friday. Dusting-2” for metro area. 3” for @Bob Chill, 2-3” for RIC.

I feel like he's gonna do better in ninas now, lol But man I am so tired of the southern wall...to get the 20" some put in their snow forecast that's gonna HAVE to change.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Yes we do, need a Friday thread, someone start it

I can start it 

[Bob Chill]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro AI is a slight bump north for Friday. Dusting-2” for metro area. 3” for @Bob Chill, 2-3” for RIC.

I'm cautiously optimistic for an accum event down here. Trajectory and strength keeps the typical waa risk in the mid levels at bay. Surface temps look surprisingly good. Current cold rain event bucked the lead up dry trend we've been seeing for basically months. Ingredients are there for an efficient accumulater. Limited max potential though so 1-2" would be a reasonable expectation at this point but there's not a lot of wiggle room for mixing problems in my hood and those problems seem to find any way possible to show up no matter what the lead time is lol

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I can start it 

it's your storm, man. you have the honors.

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I can start it 

Go ahead

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

NAM does look good...but, you know..NAM

This is the event the analogs had me chirping about since Thanksgiving.  After yet Another wobbly model output right up  to the last minute(remember the dryness insertion) I’ll just follow analogs.  Another good historical opportunity 12/20-12/21

anytime anything goes under us we don’t have the temp issue and it’s only a matter of qpf so this one has and does look real good 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Damn 100mb low I didn't know day after tomorrow was a work of nonfiction! That said this is a great look imo for within a week! 

That high is near perfection 

[bncho]

I just realized this was a December 5 event. We have history on our side, and history is known to repeat itself.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, bncho said:

I just realized this was a December 5 event. We have history on our side, and history is known to repeat itself.

Making the thread as we speak

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

First time in months that the euro ejects a southern stream wave faster than other guidance. Same pieces are there, just much more separated than on the gfs.

Over the last 10-12 years we've had a lot of a zippy busy northern stream action when we're in the game. Lots of mid range flip flops and phantoms. The good thing is the phantoms break both ways and what looks like a nothingburger at d5+ can become a somethingburger at d4- lol. Tracking can be frustrating because any second or 3rd or 4th or whatever shortwave in line is never locked in.

I no longer get deeply involved or overthink in patterns like this until a potential event is first in line. Otherwise it's just an exercise in chasing tails and kicking rabbits 

[Ji]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

AI keeps temps in the 20s all day Friday. 

AI Bundy?

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

That high is near perfection 

so is the low howie

[Weather Will]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

so is the low howie

Our rip off zone is alive and well this winter....WB 12Z EURO

[Solution Man]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Perhaps we should wait until we're inside 72 hours?

I’m easy with that, just trying to separate our multiple ways to win or fail 

[WEATHER53]

43 minutes ago, Ji said:

so is the low howie

The low  as depicted is somewhat se and we need it more like around Norfolk rather than central outer banks.