December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Gfs with a very nice event

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Gfs with a very nice event

It had me with 6" today until last night's 0z when it lowered me to 5", then 4.5" at 6z. After 1/2"+ this morning, I went to sleet. 

Not saying it'll be wrong. But the bottom line is we need all the models on board, or what can go wrong will.

[yoda]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Gfs with a very nice event

For Monday.  Friday is nothing

[bncho]

I believe in the 0z Euro

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I believe in the 0z Euro

Apparently, the 6z Euro didn't. 

[frd]

Rather dramatic drop in the AO forecast during the past 24 hours.  

 

[bncho]

We've reeled the December 5-6 signal back, at least on the EPS. Since the EPS is showing snow it's a good model.

[NorthArlington101]

06z ICON was a step in the right direction. 12z NAM looks rather improved. Just looking for hints that we are headed the right way on this one. Still got plenty of time.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

12z NAM looks great for a light event!  

[LP08]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

06z ICON was a step in the right direction. 12z NAM looks rather improved. Just looking for hints that we are headed the right way on this one. Still got plenty of time.

I will consider the 12z NAM the first NAMMing of the season for us.  Congrats! lol

[yoda]

I'd take the 12z NAM.  Still lightly snowing at the end of the run... nice 1-3"

[stormtracker]

So glad the mostly nothing burger is over so we can all have the band back together tracking this next potential nothing burger.

In all seriousness, this upcoming period next week looks to at least have potential for most of us.  Mfer just gotta stay steady on all of the models.  And as we all know, that always happens for our subforum.  

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'd take the 12z NAM.  Still lightly snowing at the end of the run... nice 1-3"

NAM does look good...but, you know..NAM

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

NAM does look good...but, you know..NAM

I was told NAM did the best this morning

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So glad the mostly nothing burger is over so we can all have the band back together tracking this next potential nothing burger.

In all seriousness, this upcoming period next week looks to at least have potential for most of us.  Mfer just gotta stay steady on all of the models.  And as we all know, that always happens for our subforum.  

Glad you’re back, let’s get this going…..SOMEWHERE 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I was told NAM did the best this morning

I think it nailed it 6 hours out?  Not joking

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

12z ICON says no dice for Friday.  No precip close to us. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Glad you’re back, let’s get this going…..SOMEWHERE 

I was around, just no point in pissing on the Northern crew's event.  They were always in the game for this.  This one was never interesting to me

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I was around, just no point in pissing on the Northern crew's event.  They were always in the game for this.  This one was never interesting to me

That was never going to happen for us

[mitchnick]

Well, cancel the dry trend, at least for this one. Definitely. 5"+ qpf up here.

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I was around, just no point in pissing on the Northern crew's event.  They were always in the game for this.  This one was never interesting to me

And in classic BWI form, it failed for us too. Lol

[stormtracker]

12z GFS looks like shit for Friday so far

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

12z GFS looks like shit for Friday so far

We’re back, gonna be better than 06z though 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

We’re back

It is a bit heavier down south, but that doesn't help us one bit, maybe a slight bump north, but still slides under us and out

[H2O]

We need a Goldilocks storm. First was just a tad warmer norther, next is a tad souther fringer and we need one that’s juuuuuist right 

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It is a bit heavier down south, but that doesn't help us one bit, maybe a slight bump north, but still slides under us and out

I meant we’re back cause of you, GFS is a bit better but not there, completely agree

[stormtracker]

So some notable difference at H5 on the GFS...seem positive so far...vort quite a bit sharper vs 6z at 135.  Precip more widespread and more SW to NE oriented.  Let's see where this goes

[WhiteoutMD]

I feel like we need the jaws music for what it could about to show for Monday? 

[stormtracker]

It's quite a substantial change from 6z

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

I feel like we need the jaws music for what it could about to show for Monday? 

Nah, but it's a nice lil event for the area.  Wetter than 6z, SW central va gets a good hit.  Lil 100mb low off the Carolina coast but slipping just south and east of us.  vort/trof just too progressive attm. Wouldn't take much more to get us a decent event up here.