December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s slipping away bro..no pack for us. Cold all bottled up…

That’s not what I posted if you paid attention. I said we would see several snow chances . But the great promised month was slipping away. Selective reading is not good 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s not what I posted if you paid attention. I said we would see several snow chances . But the great promised month was slipping away. Selective reading is not good 

Lmao…

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe we can sublimate it away. 

Hopefully it’s paste and not powder 

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I thought the Wednesday deal was a SWFE if it happens? Thought that was what this pattern was likely to produce, if it did produce? 

There’s some decent energy rounding the base of the longwave trough after it moves east a bit so we get this brief window for a more coastal system. I think most subsequent threats beyond that are likely to be SWFEs. 
 

Previously for 12/2-12/3, the southern stream energy was hanging back in the southwest while northern stream moved over us…then, when the southern stream ejected a day or two later (say getting us by 12/5ish…which is why we were saying post-12/3 looked decent), it would push a SWFE up into the cold that was established ahead of it by the northern stream…but it’s not evolving like that now…instead, they are almost moving together so we get this threat to potentially materialize on 12/2…southern stream still lags a bit which is a good thing because it allows the baroclinic zone to set up offshore. But it’s still close enough that it can produce a coastal on some of these runs. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s some decent energy rounding the base of the longwave trough after it moves east a bit so we get this brief window for a more coastal system. I think most subsequent threats beyond that are likely to be SWFEs. 
 

Previously for 12/2-12/3, the southern stream energy was hanging back in the southwest while northern stream moved over us…then, when the southern stream ejected a day or two later (say getting us by 12/5ish…which is why we were saying post-12/3 looked decent), it would push a SWFE up into the cold that was established ahead of it by the northern stream…but it’s not evolving like that now…instead, they are almost moving together so we get this threat to potentially materialize on 12/2…southern stream still lags a bit which is a good thing because it allows the baroclinic zone to set up offshore. But it’s still close enough that it can produce a coastal on some of these runs. 

Seems like it’s moved towards more of Tuesday storm winding down by Wednesday morning now 

[moneypitmike]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Watch it be a SOP deal......I'd hang myself with a mistletoe before we even hit mid December.

I told my wife that we'll never have snow at our new Pit1.  It would be funny if she's calling me a liar in the first week of December.

Bring that up to Pit2.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like it’s moved towards more of Tuesday storm winding down by Wednesday morning now 

Yeah the main show looks mostly on Tuesday as presently modeled. But this is kind of a delicate look with the timing of the southern energy. We’re gonna want this to hold serve for a couple more days before confidence increases a lot. 
 

The good news is even if that threat craps out, it looks good for additional threats behind it. Overnight longer range guidance has become a little more aggressive in retrograding the Scandinavian ridging into northern Greenland which in conjunction with a bit more amped WPO ridge, is producing a colder look into mid-December. 

[WinterWolf]

Selective memory isn’t good either…

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the main show looks mostly on Tuesday as presently modeled. But this is kind of a delicate look with the timing of the southern energy. We’re gonna want this to hold serve for a couple more days before confidence increases a lot. 
 

The good news is even if that threat craps out, it looks good for additional threats behind it. Overnight longer range guidance has become a little more aggressive in retrograding the Scandinavian ridging into northern Greenland which in conjunction with a bit more amped WPO ridge, is producing a colder look into mid-December. 

All good news . Hopefully everyone cashed in on Tuesday and we don’t lose it.

For Wolfie.. snow threats and as of now it’s not slipping away 

[HoarfrostHubb]

It’s got a heartbeat at least