December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Kitz Craver]

31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not for my soundings unless the .2 at 1000 mb counts. Total paste job. Hopefully 6z Euro is correct.  Humpy my name is Thumpy. Wash those minor levels out with 3 per hour stuff

This is the dream, I’m hoping for this. ACATT one time!!!

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

I would expect a well respected met to update their forecast base on the latest data 

That's not an opinion that is interpretation 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The euro and its minions have been slowly trending toward consensus anyway like they have many times the past few years. 4 days is still eternity for details though. I know many want results, but at least there’s something to track south of the Greens and Whites. We seasonally progress. 

Absolutely nothing set in stone other than the Debbie's minds

[Brewbeer]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's not an opinion that is interpretation 

an opinion is a type of interpretation  

[CoastalWx]

Anyways when the beer hops and bong resin slowly clear the body for some, you’ll see the clown maps are completely off with those boundary layer temps. 

[dendrite]

ineedflake’s lake streamer is almost here. Let’s slick up 93 as the stores open.

[Torch Tiger]

Always nice to see a good wx fight after a holiday and not on it

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Always nice to see a good wx fight after a holiday and not on it

Yeah he’s out for a battle

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Anyways when the beer hops and bong resin slowly clear the body for some, you’ll see the clown maps are completely off with those boundary layer temps. 

The only way you know to post. Sad that you put yourself on such a popely standing with your meh track record 

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

ineedflake’s lake streamer is almost here. Let’s slick up 93 as the stores open.

Oh and he will tell me its the bong. Windsexy day for many AWT

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

This is the 6z i see on piv

 

Stay safe, everyone!

 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The only way you know to post. Sad that you put yourself on such a popely standing with your meh track record 

Jeez relax. It’s a joke. You never see me insult people or curse at them. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh and he will tell me its the bong. Windsexy day for many AWT

Yep I’ll give you that. May get some SHSN today. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Is it a windex thing if it is a lake effect streamer?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Jeez relax. It’s a joke. You never see me insult people or curse at them. 

I love you man. No fighting just my opinion. I hope Euro Ens nail this. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I love you man. No fighting just my opinion. I hope Euro Ens nail this. 

Hope 12z euro comes back. 
 

All I was saying, is that if I put my forecast hat on… It looked dicey down there even under the heaviest stuff. Trust me, there’s nobody else on this planet who wants things to break right more than me.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Is it a windex thing if it is a lake effect streamer?

Kinda like one of those streamers with a little bit of convergence coming in with a weak surface trough. I guess more like a cold front. The other day when I looked, it seemed fairly dry, but I think Steve posted a model that showed some snow showers.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kinda like one of those streamers with a little bit of convergence coming in with a weak surface trough. I guess more like a cold front. The other day when I looked, it seemed fairly dry, but I think Steve posted a model that showed some snow showers.

• Moisture from bodies of water or existing precipitation is essential to raise the dew point temperature and saturate the boundary layer.
• Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE): Snow squalls are convective events, and CAPE is a significant discriminator between squalls and other snow events. Higher CAPE values indicate a greater potential for deep vertical growth.
• Time of occurrence: Because they are convective, snow squalls most often happen during daylight hours, with 69% of events occurring between 1300 and 2300 UTC. 

 

Radar parameters

• Reflectivity: Snow squalls typically show reflectivity values greater than 30 dBZ.
• Radial velocity: Maximum radial velocities in excess of 30 knots are another indicator. 

 

Atmospheric parameters

• Isallobaric effects: Strong surface isallobaric (pressure rise/fall) couplets, combined with steep near-surface lapse rates, contribute to the conditions that produce a squall.
• 0–2 km layer: The stability of the 0–2 km AGL layer is a factor in snow squall development. 

[weatherwiz]

Unrelated but should be a nice hefty band of heavy snow that materializes and gets Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and probably even Chicago. Smack in the middle of the day too...travel will be a nightmare out that way. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hope 12z euro comes back. 
 

All I was saying, is that if I put my forecast hat on… It looked dicey down there even under the heaviest stuff. Trust me, there’s nobody else on this planet who wants things to break right more than me.

I get it totally.  Just trying to pull out of you why you tossed the 6z Euro and Ens in favor of the GFS 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Unrelated but should be a nice hefty band of heavy snow that materializes and gets Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and probably even Chicago. Smack in the middle of the day too...travel will be a nightmare out that way. 

Jerry is in Chicago 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I get it totally.  Just trying to pull out of you why you tossed the 6z Euro and Ens in favor of the GFS 

No, I definitely didn’t do that. I was looking at the 6z euro and that was my interpretation. It was mild in the boundary layer.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Jerry is in Chicago 

That's right...when was he coming back again, Early Dec? 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

No, I definitely didn’t do that. I was looking at the 6z euro and that was my interpretation. It was mild in the boundary layer.

I am hoping for heavy rates to wash out minor 850 925 plus .2s

[weatherwiz]

The only thing I think Scott tossed was just the snow maps.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The only thing I think Scott tossed was just the snow maps.

Absolutely correct.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I am hoping for heavy rates to wash out minor 850 925 plus .2s

I think it would if it wasn’t so marginal in like 100+ millibar layer. I suppose that at the height it could flip to a 33F paste if it’s really really pounding.  I just go back in saying bring me those runs from yesterday.