December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s slipping away bro..no pack for us. Cold all bottled up…

That’s not what I posted if you paid attention. I said we would see several snow chances . But the great promised month was slipping away. Selective reading is not good 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s not what I posted if you paid attention. I said we would see several snow chances . But the great promised month was slipping away. Selective reading is not good 

Lmao…

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe we can sublimate it away. 

Hopefully it’s paste and not powder 

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I thought the Wednesday deal was a SWFE if it happens? Thought that was what this pattern was likely to produce, if it did produce? 

There’s some decent energy rounding the base of the longwave trough after it moves east a bit so we get this brief window for a more coastal system. I think most subsequent threats beyond that are likely to be SWFEs. 
 

Previously for 12/2-12/3, the southern stream energy was hanging back in the southwest while northern stream moved over us…then, when the southern stream ejected a day or two later (say getting us by 12/5ish…which is why we were saying post-12/3 looked decent), it would push a SWFE up into the cold that was established ahead of it by the northern stream…but it’s not evolving like that now…instead, they are almost moving together so we get this threat to potentially materialize on 12/2…southern stream still lags a bit which is a good thing because it allows the baroclinic zone to set up offshore. But it’s still close enough that it can produce a coastal on some of these runs. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s some decent energy rounding the base of the longwave trough after it moves east a bit so we get this brief window for a more coastal system. I think most subsequent threats beyond that are likely to be SWFEs. 
 

Previously for 12/2-12/3, the southern stream energy was hanging back in the southwest while northern stream moved over us…then, when the southern stream ejected a day or two later (say getting us by 12/5ish…which is why we were saying post-12/3 looked decent), it would push a SWFE up into the cold that was established ahead of it by the northern stream…but it’s not evolving like that now…instead, they are almost moving together so we get this threat to potentially materialize on 12/2…southern stream still lags a bit which is a good thing because it allows the baroclinic zone to set up offshore. But it’s still close enough that it can produce a coastal on some of these runs. 

Seems like it’s moved towards more of Tuesday storm winding down by Wednesday morning now 

[moneypitmike]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Watch it be a SOP deal......I'd hang myself with a mistletoe before we even hit mid December.

I told my wife that we'll never have snow at our new Pit1.  It would be funny if she's calling me a liar in the first week of December.

Bring that up to Pit2.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like it’s moved towards more of Tuesday storm winding down by Wednesday morning now 

Yeah the main show looks mostly on Tuesday as presently modeled. But this is kind of a delicate look with the timing of the southern energy. We’re gonna want this to hold serve for a couple more days before confidence increases a lot. 
 

The good news is even if that threat craps out, it looks good for additional threats behind it. Overnight longer range guidance has become a little more aggressive in retrograding the Scandinavian ridging into northern Greenland which in conjunction with a bit more amped WPO ridge, is producing a colder look into mid-December. 

[WinterWolf]

Selective memory isn’t good either…

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the main show looks mostly on Tuesday as presently modeled. But this is kind of a delicate look with the timing of the southern energy. We’re gonna want this to hold serve for a couple more days before confidence increases a lot. 
 

The good news is even if that threat craps out, it looks good for additional threats behind it. Overnight longer range guidance has become a little more aggressive in retrograding the Scandinavian ridging into northern Greenland which in conjunction with a bit more amped WPO ridge, is producing a colder look into mid-December. 

All good news . Hopefully everyone cashed in on Tuesday and we don’t lose it.

For Wolfie.. snow threats and as of now it’s not slipping away 

[HoarfrostHubb]

It’s got a heartbeat at least

 

[CoastalWx]

41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But then again, Kevin and Tiger torch said yesterday, that it’s a shame to see it all just slipping away.  So I guess there’s that…right? Fast flow..cold all bottled up in Canada. Pacific sucks..that’s the word from DIT and TT. 

Nah..it’s slipping away..all of it. You hate to see it., 

Still could lol

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All good news . Hopefully everyone cashed in on Tuesday and we don’t lose it.

For Wolfie.. snow threats and as of now it’s not slipping away 

Kev…no, you were trolling yesterday, looking for info, and entertaining that silly poster TT.  Scott posted his potential concerns(which were valid), and then you came with the BS I posted above. 

Nothing was slipping away yesterday, and you knew that, or should have.   Let’s do away with that crap..forum is a much better place without that shit.  

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Still could lol

Sure..but it’s not currently, and wasn’t yesterday either. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Still could lol

We just don’t know?

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Still could lol

What I love is how the model hopium triggers amnesia—masking the fact that we’ve been on the cusp of epic pattern many times before in this decade. 

Better this than seeing Canada torched and a stationary trough to Baja. No doubt about that. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We just don’t know?

Obviously we don’t…it’s morphing each day. We laugh..but it’s the truth.  A couple days ago, a coastal wasn’t even entertained. Now it’s a possibility…there ya go. We didn’t know. 
 

And sure it can all shit the bed, but at this juncture, we don’t know. 

[mahk_webstah]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Watch it be a SOP deal......I'd hang myself with a mistletoe before we even hit mid December.

Miller A always a bit risky the farther north we get. Could be a problem up here, but you’re pretty close to the coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Miller A always a bit risky the farther north we get. Could be a problem up here, but you’re pretty close to the coast.

Still scarred from last December.

[mahk_webstah]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the main show looks mostly on Tuesday as presently modeled. But this is kind of a delicate look with the timing of the southern energy. We’re gonna want this to hold serve for a couple more days before confidence increases a lot. 
 

The good news is even if that threat craps out, it looks good for additional threats behind it. Overnight longer range guidance has become a little more aggressive in retrograding the Scandinavian ridging into northern Greenland which in conjunction with a bit more amped WPO ridge, is producing a colder look into mid-December. 

And you would think that northern Greenland is a less suppressive for most of New England

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still scarred from last December.

There’s a lot of scar tissue in this forum. But with scar tissue, you just have to break it up and scrape it away.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Miller A always a bit risky the farther north we get. Could be a problem up here, but you’re pretty close to the coast.

And the miller A/whole coastal idea could still just go poof too…that is tenuous at best currently…so we’ll see where it goes from here? 

[mahk_webstah]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s not what I posted if you paid attention. I said we would see several snow chances . But the great promised month was slipping away. Selective reading is not good 

The great promise month of December just got better not worse. Plenty of cold air and an active storm track and signs that late month will not warm up.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Obviously we don’t…it’s morphing each day. We laugh..but it’s the truth.  A couple days ago, a coastal wasn’t even entertained. Now it’s a possibility…there ya go. We didn’t know. 
 

And sure it can all shit the bed, but at this juncture, we don’t know. 

We probably shouldn’t even discuss it. Just wait until the day comes and see what happens.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

And the miller A/whole coastal idea could still just go poof too…that is tenuous at best currently…so we’ll see where it goes from here? 

It can always always go poof.  

[CoastalWx]

And now the next few days will be the geo battles where folks from different areas will only post model output that buries them. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

There’s a lot of scar tissue in this forum. But with scar tissue, you just have to break it up and scrape it away.

I’m one giant scab.

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

And now the next few days will be the geo battles where folks from different areas will only post model output that buries them. 

I anxiously await maps of NYC jacks while SNE gets scraped

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

We probably shouldn’t even discuss it. Just wait until the day comes and see what happens.

Brian, you know what I mean…so if you know, then tell me what this will be next Tuesday/Wednesday?  You can’t.  
 

And That doesn’t mean we don’t discuss…of course we do, but what’s wrong with saying we don’t know?  Why do you always have to be such a wise ass? 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

There’s a lot of scar tissue in this forum. But with scar tissue, you just have to break it up and scrape it away.

The only way to do that is with ample amounts of snow. 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And now the next few days will be the geo battles where folks from different areas will only post model output that buries them. 

I pledge not to post Euro runs cutting 980mb lows through Albany and burying me and PF   

[dendrite]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Brian, you know what I mean…so if you know, then tell me what this will be next Tuesday/Wednesday?  You can’t.  
 

And That doesn’t mean we don’t discuss…of course we do, but what’s wrong with saying we don’t know?  Why do you always have to be such a wise ass? 

Because we obviously know the caveats this far out. We don’t need to hear it every event. There’s only one emo poster here that plays mental meteorological gymnastics in the extended and he lives at 990ft.