December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

have a snow map?

Several inches

This is getting interesting 

[NEG NAO]

The problem with the Euro is that HP in Canada is not holding in place compared to the GFS - the LP is allowed to move further north

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The problem with the Euro is that HP in Canada is not holding in place compared to the GFS - the LP is allowed to move further north

Its further south like the other models. Good trends tonight. 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its further south like the other models. Good trends tonight. 

agreed and its only 5 days away....

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

agreed and its only 5 days away....

Yep. Now the eps is also south. 

Looks like the models latched on to the blocking tonight. 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep. Now the eps is also south. 

Looks like the models latched on to the blocking tonight. 

yes and since its multiple models  trending that way and its only 5 days away chances are good we will have at least some sort of frozen event - still way too early for details..........

[MJO812]

Icon well south now

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon well south now

But what does the Navy say? Oh wait, it hasn't run since Thanksgiving. Guess it's hibernating for now.

Good runs overall tonight, AI models as well. Big moves, good moves. 

MJO- No Access to MA? What happened, they banned you in the Mid Atlantic forums?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

But what does the Navy say? Oh wait, it hasn't run since Thanksgiving. Guess it's hibernating for now.

Good runs overall tonight, AI models as well. Big moves, good moves. 

MJO- No Access to MA? What happened, they banned you in the Mid Atlantic forums?

Yes just for posting maps. Its stupid. 

Anyway gfs is even further south

Gfs and AI gfs

[MJO812]

Gefs further south 

[MJO812]

AI Euro slightly more south

[MJO812]

6z euro continues the theme. Slightly more colder.

6z eps slightly colder and south of 0z eps

[brooklynwx99]

pretty legit trend in the confluence for late week. Fri-Sat is def a timeframe to watch for a legit thump

[bluewave]

All we can say for sure is that the -NAO corrected much stronger and the PNA more negative with a stronger trough digging into the West. Certainly an unusual looking setup for snow here. But the kicker low over the Dakotas prevents the low near our area from riding too far north. So in an odd way the stronger -PNA actually helps which we don’t see much. The solution could change in the coming days with all the moving parts. 
 

New run

Old run

 

 

[wthrmn654]

Weather channel just talked about that.  Icy and snowy potential!

[SHELEG]

GFS is so far south it’s a miss.

[SACRUS]

 

27 / 14 sunny.  Progressing to an overall near / below normal once passed the warmup Christmas (Eve/Day) 12/24 - 12/26.  Friday into Sat slop / flop or snow to rain.  Warmth to the south / west and cold pushing down into the northeast.  Next storm threat, beyond Friday/Sat is for the 30/31.  Beyond there - near normal.