November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Also if I did decide to pay for a weather site which one is the consensus pick?

Pivotal, WxBell, and Weathermodels are probably the options for the nicer maps these days. WxBell is more expensive (like twice as much as Weathermodels at least) but since I’m a sucker for routine I’ll probably pay it ($30/mo) once we’ve got a real threat on the horizon. I’ve learned to navigate it well on my phone too which helps 

[Chris78]

34 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Fine, I'll do it myself 

Short pump pummeled 

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Also if I did decide to pay for a weather site which one is the consensus pick?

I like WxBell maps the best and their map interface is easy and works good on mobile.  Plus JB is actually entertaining to listen to on his daily videos even if he does see a winter storm behind every blade of grass.  

[bncho]

12z Euro likes the idea of more than flurries.

[MN Transplant]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z Euro likes the idea of more than flurries.

The Euro is interesting in that it is digging a potent 500 low which provides the dynamics needed for a post-frontal burst of precip.  The GFS does not have this (nor does the AIFS for that matter).  Probably a pipe dream, but worth keeping an eye on.

[bncho]

13 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The Euro is interesting in that it is digging a potent 500 low which provides the dynamics needed for a post-frontal burst of precip.  The GFS does not have this (nor does the AIFS for that matter).  Probably a pipe dream, but worth keeping an eye on.

king euro!

[WxUSAF]

GGEM has that upper low thing as well, but farther south so brings the "snow" through NC and southern VA.  

On a different note, all the 12z ops have completely punted any real warmup for mid-month.  Have to see if ensembles agree.

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM has that upper low thing as well, but farther south so brings the "snow" through NC and southern VA.  

On a different note, all the 12z ops have completely punted any real warmup for mid-month.  Have to see if ensembles agree.

ICON has it for Central Va, UKIE has it for NE MD. Think it could be real… would just like first flakes without needing to drive to Snowshoe

[NorthArlington101]

The secondary development is fairly clear on the 12z EPS... not paying for individual members yet but the mean through the area is a T of snow at this point. 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The secondary development is fairly clear on the 12z EPS... not paying for individual members yet but the mean through the area is a T of snow at this point. 

Latest GFS does something interesting with the primary costal low as well and honestly gets close to snow from a completely different route 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Latest GFS does something interesting with the primary costal low as well and honestly gets close to snow from a completely different route 

That depiction might work for the mountains (prob not for Cville) if that's the way things went but pretty sure the only way we'd see flakes in the metros where most of us are is if the EURO/UKIE/CMC/ICON have a clue and we just happen to be the lucky spot

[bncho]

12z EPS has an incredible amount of hits (hits mean at least flurries at one of the airports of BWI, IAD, DCA, and RIC). 38 out of 50! (76%)

[bncho]

Median on the 12z EPS (yes, the MEDIAN and not the mean) shows 0.3"! 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That depiction might work for the mountains (prob not for Cville) if that's the way things went but pretty sure the only way we'd see flakes in the metros where most of us are is if the EURO/UKIE/CMC/ICON have a clue and we just happen to be the lucky spot

Agreed. As depicted, this is a mountains special, which isn't uncommon in November.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Agreed. As depicted, this is a mountains special, which isn't uncommon in November.

Yeah, our only shot locally is flukey secondary nonsense. EPS is actually more into it than I assumed it would be. Worth watching cause nothing else is on the table right now 

[bncho]

GEFS, like @NorthArlington101implied, is not buying it nearly as much. 10 out of 30 (33%) hits.

 

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That depiction might work for the mountains (prob not for Cville) if that's the way things went but pretty sure the only way we'd see flakes in the metros where most of us are is if the EURO/UKIE/CMC/ICON have a clue and we just happen to be the lucky spot

It'll be interesting to see where the short term models bring this if it doesn't completely fall apart before then. Either way my Monday classes are looking real skippable if WV is getting 2-3 inches OTG and daytime snowfall. 

[bncho]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It'll be interesting to see where the short term models bring this if it doesn't completely fall apart before then. Either way my Monday classes are looking real skippable if WV is getting 2-3 inches OTG and daytime snowfall. 

2 days away until NAM range lol

[LongRanger]

From AFDLWX of
223 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

"The airmass moving into the region Monday night is going to be
extremely cold, possibly approaching some of the coldest temps ever
sampled for the Tuesday 12Z IAD sounding. The GFS and ECMWF both
show the potential for 500mb temps to be at or colder than -35C."

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

Latest GFS run stunk pretty bad, worse than 12z for the mountains as it had a less amplified and less deep trough. 

[frd]

GFS Ens and ECMWF Ens both agree with a rather warm look across the conus, with the exception of our region and the NE part of the country, during days 8 to 16. The warm up is most pronouced in the center of the country. 

Canada also warms a bit.

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 hours ago, frd said:

GFS Ens and ECMWF Ens both agree with a rather warm look across the conus, with the exception of our region and the NE part of the country, during days 8 to 16. The warm up is most pronouced in the center of the country. 

Canada also warms a bit.

It’s rare that the warm ups exclude us.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice -NAO pattern Nov 7-23.. through hr384 on the 00z GFS ensemble mean. That's what you want to see as a wintery pattern, constant sustained High pressure west of Greenland and over the Davis Strait through the entire model run. That's a good sign for Winter, and does correlate at about 55% to -AO the rest of the Winter. 

We aren't super cold in the east because of a N. Pacific High pressure in that time... but since the 23-24 Strong Nino, since June 2023, the PNA has been positive 21/29 months (CPC)! It's been hard for -PNA's to sustain.. 

[Terpeast]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We aren't super cold in the east because of a N. Pacific High pressure in that time... but since the 23-24 Strong Nino, since June 2023, the PNA has been positive 21/29 months (CPC)! It's been hard for -PNA's to sustain.. 

Would you say that the PNA pushing positive despite the +WPO/Pacific marine heat wave is what's behind some of the suppressed storm tracks that gave Louisiana and Florida and SE VA double digit snows? That's just me visualizing the patterns in my head... but I haven't really looked at the PNA data (been heads down with MJO at work lately).

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

For the time being, the consensus definitely would seem to be that closer to the NC/VA border is the spot that could sneak in a snow shower with any secondary development early next week.

Right where we want it?  

[scope1]

FWIW

[frd]

 

Encouraging signal with the AO. 

 

 

[bncho]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

For the time being, the consensus definitely would seem to be that closer to the NC/VA border is the spot that could sneak in a snow shower with any secondary development early next week.

Right where we want it?  

we said that last winter, how did that turn out lol