November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Also if I did decide to pay for a weather site which one is the consensus pick?

Pivotal, WxBell, and Weathermodels are probably the options for the nicer maps these days. WxBell is more expensive (like twice as much as Weathermodels at least) but since I’m a sucker for routine I’ll probably pay it ($30/mo) once we’ve got a real threat on the horizon. I’ve learned to navigate it well on my phone too which helps 

[Chris78]

34 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Fine, I'll do it myself 

Short pump pummeled 

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Also if I did decide to pay for a weather site which one is the consensus pick?

I like WxBell maps the best and their map interface is easy and works good on mobile.  Plus JB is actually entertaining to listen to on his daily videos even if he does see a winter storm behind every blade of grass.  

[bncho]

12z Euro likes the idea of more than flurries.

[MN Transplant]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z Euro likes the idea of more than flurries.

The Euro is interesting in that it is digging a potent 500 low which provides the dynamics needed for a post-frontal burst of precip.  The GFS does not have this (nor does the AIFS for that matter).  Probably a pipe dream, but worth keeping an eye on.

[bncho]

13 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The Euro is interesting in that it is digging a potent 500 low which provides the dynamics needed for a post-frontal burst of precip.  The GFS does not have this (nor does the AIFS for that matter).  Probably a pipe dream, but worth keeping an eye on.

king euro!

[WxUSAF]

GGEM has that upper low thing as well, but farther south so brings the "snow" through NC and southern VA.  

On a different note, all the 12z ops have completely punted any real warmup for mid-month.  Have to see if ensembles agree.

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM has that upper low thing as well, but farther south so brings the "snow" through NC and southern VA.  

On a different note, all the 12z ops have completely punted any real warmup for mid-month.  Have to see if ensembles agree.

ICON has it for Central Va, UKIE has it for NE MD. Think it could be real… would just like first flakes without needing to drive to Snowshoe

[NorthArlington101]

The secondary development is fairly clear on the 12z EPS... not paying for individual members yet but the mean through the area is a T of snow at this point. 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The secondary development is fairly clear on the 12z EPS... not paying for individual members yet but the mean through the area is a T of snow at this point. 

Latest GFS does something interesting with the primary costal low as well and honestly gets close to snow from a completely different route 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Latest GFS does something interesting with the primary costal low as well and honestly gets close to snow from a completely different route 

That depiction might work for the mountains (prob not for Cville) if that's the way things went but pretty sure the only way we'd see flakes in the metros where most of us are is if the EURO/UKIE/CMC/ICON have a clue and we just happen to be the lucky spot

[bncho]

12z EPS has an incredible amount of hits (hits mean at least flurries at one of the airports of BWI, IAD, DCA, and RIC). 38 out of 50! (76%)

[bncho]

Median on the 12z EPS (yes, the MEDIAN and not the mean) shows 0.3"! 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That depiction might work for the mountains (prob not for Cville) if that's the way things went but pretty sure the only way we'd see flakes in the metros where most of us are is if the EURO/UKIE/CMC/ICON have a clue and we just happen to be the lucky spot

Agreed. As depicted, this is a mountains special, which isn't uncommon in November.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Agreed. As depicted, this is a mountains special, which isn't uncommon in November.

Yeah, our only shot locally is flukey secondary nonsense. EPS is actually more into it than I assumed it would be. Worth watching cause nothing else is on the table right now 

[bncho]

GEFS, like @NorthArlington101implied, is not buying it nearly as much. 10 out of 30 (33%) hits.

 

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That depiction might work for the mountains (prob not for Cville) if that's the way things went but pretty sure the only way we'd see flakes in the metros where most of us are is if the EURO/UKIE/CMC/ICON have a clue and we just happen to be the lucky spot

It'll be interesting to see where the short term models bring this if it doesn't completely fall apart before then. Either way my Monday classes are looking real skippable if WV is getting 2-3 inches OTG and daytime snowfall.