November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[SouthCoastMA]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

60F temps or a tad higher tomorrow for wolfie. 

The Vatican had decreed 70° for some 

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Better hope it’s not the 6z gfs or AI stuff 

Kind of wish the -NAO didn’t disappear on us. Guidance had been quite bullish on it for December but now it’s basically gone.
 

Don’t need a Davis strait block but a bit of -NAO would help pin that cold a little further south. As long as we keep good cross polar flow though and that PV anomaly in SE Canada stays strong, we’ll have chances, but there’s def gonna be some risk we mix in a cutter. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Kind of wish the -NAO didn’t disappear on us. Guidance had been quite bullish on it for December but now it’s basically gone.
 

Don’t need a Davis strait block but a bit of -NAO would help pin that cold a little further south. As long as we keep good cross polar flow though and that PV anomaly in SE Canada stays strong, we’ll have chances, but there’s def gonna be some risk we mix in a cutter. 

Yup, Risk is always a possibility here…but we take our chances.  We’ve had great looks a few time over the last couple years…And have come up empty.  I’ll gladly entertain what’s coming.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kind of wish the -NAO didn’t disappear on us. Guidance had been quite bullish on it for December but now it’s basically gone.
 

Don’t need a Davis strait block but a bit of -NAO would help pin that cold a little further south. As long as we keep good cross polar flow though and that PV anomaly in SE Canada stays strong, we’ll have chances, but there’s def gonna be some risk we mix in a cutter. 

I think this is why it’s important to have a threat on the horizon as we approach winter. The above, in various forms, has happened so many times over the past 5+ years.

definitely okay to keep expectations for December in check for now. Maybe we can eventually get some NAO blocking later in the winter, but I wouldn’t count on it

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think this is why it’s important to have a threat on the horizon as we approach winter. The above, in various forms, has happened so many times over the past 5+ years.

definitely okay to keep expectations for December in check for now. Maybe we can eventually get some NAO blocking later in the winter, but I wouldn’t count on it

Agreed.  For sure keep expectations in check.  We had a lot of blocking last year…didn’t help us at all either. 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kind of wish the -NAO didn’t disappear on us. Guidance had been quite bullish on it for December but now it’s basically gone.
 

Don’t need a Davis strait block but a bit of -NAO would help pin that cold a little further south. As long as we keep good cross polar flow though and that PV anomaly in SE Canada stays strong, we’ll have chances, but there’s def gonna be some risk we mix in a cutter. 

All the disrobing to wind reversals and it’s a neutral to +AO lol. Maybe it’s helped with the WPO area. 
 

But yeah just keep that cross polar flow coming. I told Ray I do see some signs of zonal flow so I feel like we’ll be sweating bullets at times. Guidance is already warming in the srn US. Let’s hope we average out to be more on the good side of things. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

All the disrobing to wind reversals and it’s a neutral to +AO lol. Maybe it’s helped with the WPO area. 
 

But yeah just keep that cross polar flow coming. I told Ray I do see some signs of zonal flow so I feel like we’ll be sweating bullets at times. Guidance is already warming in the srn US. Let’s hope we average out to be more on the good side of things. 

Question: doesn’t it take some time for any SSW affects to show up?  
 

Are we getting a PV split? 

Isn’t the big anomaly(PV) in SE Canada on modeling, a result of the SSW?   Or no? 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Question: doesn’t it take some time for any SSW affects to show up?  
 

Are we getting a PV split? 

Isn’t the big anomaly(PV) in SE Canada on modeling, a result of the SSW?   Or no? 

I think it’s helped with the Pacific side of things, but a lot of this action seems to be focused more in the stratosphere and not a whole lot in the troposphere. Overhyped as usual.

[CoastalWx]

The PV will eventually migrate more to where it should be in northern Canada and cause a big temperature difference between the Canadian border  and southern US.

[CoastalWx]

What I was hoping to see was some -NAO to help sort of keep the PV further south. But without that we’ll probably be prone to cutters. Hard to tell at this point. I do think we’ll have chances unlike previous Decembers, but I wouldn’t plan on extended snow pack at least in southern New England.

[Torch Tiger]

6z gefs milder in the extended.  Canada is cold but more normal at end, with S US roasting. Concerns

[WinterWolf]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The PV will eventually migrate more to where it should be in northern Canada and cause a big temperature difference between the Canadian border  and southern US.

But wont that help us?  I mean pressing  cold would help, And the big contrast in temps can produce some good baroclonicity? Or am I completely mistaken lol? 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

6z gefs milder in the extended.  Canada is cold but more normal at end, with S US roasting. Concerns

No concerns yet. The models are horrendous in the long range.  We should enter a mild period thought in mid December. 

[Damage In Tolland]

The worries are beginning . Energy Mets on right track of Dec 1-15 of snow threats and then ending 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

But wont that help us?  I mean oresssine cold out weff go…And the big contrast in temps can produce some good baroclonicity? Or am I completely mistaken lol? 

It certainly opens up the door to good thermal gradient. And obviously yes, that powers storms. But with that comes some southeast ridge and then the storm track might get dicey. i’m just saying these are some of the things that I kind of see that perhaps are a little concerning to me, but I’m not writing off December or anything like that. It’s too far out to really determine that just don’t be shocked if all this snowy talk doesn’t exactly happen at least in southern New England. Probably will be a great December up north.

One day we’ll sit back with a massive ridge out west where Calgary is 85 in December. I’ll sit outside and smoke a cjgar without a care in the world as the snow falls on my nude body.

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

No concerns yet. The models are horrendous in the long range.  We should enter a mild period thought in mid December. 

ensemble blends are fine to get a general idea /big picture

 

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The worries are beginning . Energy Mets on right track of Dec 1-15 of snow threats and then ending 

 without a more favorable pattern, looks unlikely. Unless you mean far nne (threats)

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 without a more favorable pattern, looks unlikely. Unless you mean far nne (threats)

Certainly slipping away for a good month south of there 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Certainly slipping away for a good month south of there 

You can’t say that. But I wasn’t a fan of how guidance lost the NAO ridging over the last two weeks. I think we’re gonna have some chances, fingers crossed.

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No concerns yet. The models are horrendous in the long range.  We should enter a mild period thought in mid December. 

LR models warm…they’re horrendous

LR models cold…we take and we post

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

LR models warm…they’re horrendous

LR models cold…we take and we post

He knows NYC is toast 

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Certainly slipping away for a good month south of there 

yeah it's disappointing to see everything slip away like that.  Especially with the tremendous SSW hype and etc.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He knows NYC is toast 

He does it every Nov/Dec. Investing way too early for his climo. He needs to move up to Glens Falls or Binghamton and handle some real crime…like not putting on your blinker at a stop sign.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Certainly slipping away for a good month south of there 

Too much absolutism here. We don’t even know how things will look beyond about 12/14….weeklies actually load a bit of a western ridge leading into Xmas week. Don’t know if I buy it, but there’s plenty of ways to snow if we can keep frigid air in Canada close by which looks to be the case at least. Our glory days of December had cutters too in the 2000s…they are likely to happen. 

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Certainly slipping away for a good month south of there 

This is so silly..

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You can’t say that. But I wasn’t a fan of how guidance lost the NAO ridging over the last two weeks. I think we’re gonna have some chances, fingers crossed.

 

17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

yeah it's disappointing to see everything slip away like that.  Especially with the tremendous SSW hype and etc.

 

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Too much absolutism here. We don’t even know how things will look beyond about 12/14….weeklies actually load a bit of a western ridge leading into Xmas week. Don’t know if I buy it, but there’s plenty of ways to snow if we can keep frigid air in Canada close by which looks to be the case at least. Our glory days of December had cutters too in the 2000s…they are likely to happen. 

I’m not throwing any towels in yet. I’m quite sure we’ll have a few accumulating snow storms in Dec.. but the duration of the favorable period shrinking this week , losing the NAO.. is a growing worry.  Weeklies last year looked good almost each run and we know how that worked. I’ve hated the look of the fast flow Pacific flow all autumn .. allowing for 1 coastal and any others blowing up over the Stellwagen Bank . All that allows for are fast moving lake cutters and windy CAA. If trends continue negatively the next few few days .. we’ll all be throwing in our towels into a pile in the lockeroom looking at each others limply hanging junk .

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 

I’m not throwing any towels in yet. I’m quite sure we’ll have a few accumulating snow storms in Dec.. but the duration of the favorable period shrinking this week , losing the NAO.. is a growing worry.  Weeklies last year looked good almost each run and we know how that worked. I’ve hated the look of the fast flow Pacific flow all autumn .. allowing for 1 coastal and any others blowing up over the Stellwagen Bank . All that allows for are fast moving lake cutters and windy CAA. If trends continue negatively the next few few days .. we’ll all be throwing in our towels into a pile in the lockeroom looking at each others limply hanging junk .

It’s not fast Pacific flow. Quite the opposite with the ridging. You’re getting confused. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not fast Pacific flow. Quite the opposite with the ridging. You’re getting confused. 

It is a west to east flow keeping cold bottled up 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I sleep like shit every night because my cat crawls on my face at 5am wanting food.

I could really do something with this but will refrain.