MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[The Waterboy]

35 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Anybody else see this from NWS TUL?  Sounds like this might continue to be a sleet parade south of I 44 most of the night.

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 805 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Analysis of water vapor imagery reveals a robust upper level low
entering Texas this evening. The GLM shows numerous cloud flashes in
the convection wrapping around this low, which will later eject
northeastward into the forecast area as its absorbed into the main
upper level trough.

In the meantime, confluent mid level flow at 700 hPa is supporting
frontogenesis to the west of the forecast area. Widespread upper
level diffluence and increase potential vorticity advection is also
noted. Cooling cloud tops and expanding precipitation within the
frontogenetical zone are already occurring. Meanwhile, fairly deep
moisture continues to stream into the area from the south ahead of
the upper level low.

These factors should support a consolidation of the numerous showers
into a broad precipitation shield with embedded areas of convection.
Widespread moderate to locally heavy precipitation will develop
through the early overnight hours before gradually diminishing
during the day Sunday. Snow will be favored along the I-44 corridor,
with a mixture of snow and sleet down to just south of the I-44
corridor, and sleet to the south of there. Total snow and sleet will
be highly variable but significant. The hardest hit areas could see
up to 10 inches of snow or 2 inches of sleet, though most will see
somewhat lower totals.

 

You and I switched over to snow around 8:30 and it’s been steady since then.  That doesn’t really match up with saying primarily sleet south of I-44. 

[MoWeatherguy]

7 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

You and I switched over to snow around 8:30 and it’s been steady since then.  That doesn’t really match up with saying primarily sleet south of I-44. 

Yah I see I'm all snow here finally. This has been a total wreck of a forecast. 

[stormdragonwx]

Still a sleet storm here in Fayetteville. I highly doubt we see 10 in 

[JoMo]

It's been really coming down. It's a very fine snow but it's pouring and stacking up quickly. 

EDIT: Looks like maybe 4-5" at 4:45 AM. An additional 3-4" is expected. 

[stormdragonwx]

14 hours ago, stormdragonwx said:

Still a sleet storm here in Fayetteville. I highly doubt we see 10 in 

Finally changed over after midnight here. So now we got a sandwich of accumulation in my yard. About 3 inches of snow 1 inch of sleet and 2 inches of additional snow on top. Might get another inch and a half with this final band moving thru.

EDIT: Was correct, final measurements come to average at around 7 inches.

[schoeppeya]

Round 2 performed here, I measured 8.5 in my yard and I would bet 7 inches of that came last night. Always will be the what could have been if round one hadn't been a dud and we hadnt sleeted most of the afternoon yesterday but 8.5" is a huge storm here and I will take it. 

[rockchalk83]

We finished with 7" officially at Eisenhower National Airport (ICT). I measured 7.5" outside of my house. 

Not the 12-20" that were progged Thursday night, but still a solid storm system with about 1/2 inch (liquid equivalent) of much needed moisture.

[StormChazer]

Measured 8-10 inches in my back yard. Can’t be upset with that. The most snow I’ve seen in probably 15 years and certainly the most I’ve seen since moving to Oklahoma in 2016.

Underperormer of a storm to be sure, but by any normal standards, a great snowstorm for many. Comparison is the thief of joy. So while it doesn’t look like the models, it’s still been fantastic!

[JoMo]

Ended up with around 5-6" 

[ouamber]

Midtown Tulsa here...measured several spots in the yard, but 8-9 seems to be where the yard stick kept coming to. I do have some awesome 16 inch drifts close to my fence though. Nowhere near "historic", but more than I've seen since 2011, so I'm happy! When is the next storm???

[RocketWX]

Ended up with about 6" at my house. That might have been the slowest, steadiest snow I can recall, that eventually accumulated to that amount. Made for a relaxing weekend watching and tracking. Glad we could squeeze out some moisture in the plains. 

[Doramo]

After all the sleet we ended up close to 7" . I'll take it with joy!

[MUWX]

Got down to -13 last night, forecast was for -6. Really glad we missed the freezing rain and power outages. 

[Stx_Thunder]

Very surprised to read in here the weekend North TX Sleet storm got all the way up into AR & MO, with all the low-level WAA ahead of that major southern-stream trough (that produced a really complex winter storm event in TX).

Since I've never experienced a real sleet storm, I do wonder what's the most ever sleet storm total (or depth) in this thread's states?

I'm thinking it has to be at least a foot?

And I wonder how that's like or driving on it. Apparently, even just 4" sleet pack is enough to get stuck from what I saw in Dallas.

[StormChazer]

2 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Very surprised to read in here the weekend North TX Sleet storm got all the way up into AR & MO, with all the low-level WAA ahead of that major southern-stream trough (that produced a really complex winter storm event in TX).

Since I've never experienced a real sleet storm, I do wonder what's the most ever sleet storm total (or depth) in this thread's states?

I'm thinking it has to be at least a foot?

And I wonder how that's like or driving on it. Apparently, even just 4" sleet pack is enough to get stuck from what I saw in Dallas.

Honestly, 1/2 inch of sleet is enough to get stuck and shut the roads down, it really doesn't take much, sleet just turns the roads into an ice skating rink as soon as those sleet pellets settle and freeze together.

4 inches of sleet is a PROLIFIC amount that you don't see very often at all.

This is a great NWS article out of DFW on the 2013 Cobblestone Ice event that I personally lived through.

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/december72013

A large chunk of DFW received 3-5 inches of sleet, and that's the last time I can remember since this storm of anyone getting that much around here.

 

 

[StormChazer]

"

One of the most memorable aspects of this particular storm was the introduction of “cobblestone ice” into the common vocabulary of North Texans.  So why did it form, and why did it get so bad? 

First off, it goes without saying that there was an abundance of precipitation with this event.  Many areas received over an inch of liquid, including DFW Airport, where 1.25” of liquid was observed.  North and east of the Metroplex, totals were even higher.  This translated into multiple inches of snow, sleet and/or freezing rain which existed in layers of varying depth.  As traffic and marginal air and ground temperatures began to work on this frozen mess, some of it melted partially and morphed into slush during the daytime hours.  Once nighttime fell, however, most of it would refreeze and harden.  Despite the best efforts of local and state road crews, this cycle of compaction, melting, refreezing and hardening repeated itself in some areas over a period of up to 4 days. 

In some spots, particularly on bridges and overpasses, larger chunks of ice were broken out of the icepack by plows and traffic.  These chunks would mix in with the slush during the daytime, forming a soupy gray mess.  At night, the entire concoction would refreeze, producing large molded bumps that were essentially glued to the very top of the roadways (or bridge decks).  It was these hard, rock-like formations that represented the essence of the cobblestone ice experience for North Texas drivers. 

Once frozen in place, this unique ice proved quite difficult to remove.  Depths ranged from ½” to 4”, depending on where traffic caused peaks and valleys in the slush before it froze into cobblestone form."

 

[lookingnorth]

The storm total was about 6.5" in Norman. That's less than I was hoping for, but I kind of expected it to underperform somehow. Plus, it was still the biggest snowstorm I've personally experienced since January 2010 in NC, so I can't complain. I like how it's supposed to be cold the next few days, so while I'm sure it will melt a good bit in the sun, melting should be slower than it is after some storms.