MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[The Waterboy]

35 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Anybody else see this from NWS TUL?  Sounds like this might continue to be a sleet parade south of I 44 most of the night.

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 805 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Analysis of water vapor imagery reveals a robust upper level low
entering Texas this evening. The GLM shows numerous cloud flashes in
the convection wrapping around this low, which will later eject
northeastward into the forecast area as its absorbed into the main
upper level trough.

In the meantime, confluent mid level flow at 700 hPa is supporting
frontogenesis to the west of the forecast area. Widespread upper
level diffluence and increase potential vorticity advection is also
noted. Cooling cloud tops and expanding precipitation within the
frontogenetical zone are already occurring. Meanwhile, fairly deep
moisture continues to stream into the area from the south ahead of
the upper level low.

These factors should support a consolidation of the numerous showers
into a broad precipitation shield with embedded areas of convection.
Widespread moderate to locally heavy precipitation will develop
through the early overnight hours before gradually diminishing
during the day Sunday. Snow will be favored along the I-44 corridor,
with a mixture of snow and sleet down to just south of the I-44
corridor, and sleet to the south of there. Total snow and sleet will
be highly variable but significant. The hardest hit areas could see
up to 10 inches of snow or 2 inches of sleet, though most will see
somewhat lower totals.

 

You and I switched over to snow around 8:30 and it’s been steady since then.  That doesn’t really match up with saying primarily sleet south of I-44. 

[MoWeatherguy]

7 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

You and I switched over to snow around 8:30 and it’s been steady since then.  That doesn’t really match up with saying primarily sleet south of I-44. 

Yah I see I'm all snow here finally. This has been a total wreck of a forecast. 

[stormdragonwx]

Still a sleet storm here in Fayetteville. I highly doubt we see 10 in