November 2025 OBS Discussion

[the_other_guy]

i’m trying to remember a Thanksgiving or Christmas week in the last 20 years when we have not had a day that was 58 with rain and mist. 

Let’s see if these winds fuck up the parade tomorrow

[SACRUS]

 

58 / 55 cloudy -  0 .72 in the bucket.  Clearing and the warmest day will at least the next week to 10 days 12/4.   Colder 11/27 - early next week.  Then caught between the deeper cold and ridging to our south - could spell some opporuutunities for early season snow/mixes.  Otherwise looks a bit back and forth bias cold through the next 10 days.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 68 (2011)
NYC: 67 (1946)
LGA: 67 (2020)
JFK: 66 (2020)


Lows:

EWR: 15 (1938)
NYC: 16 (1938)
LGA: 24 (1940)
JFK: 24 (1993)

 

Historical:

 

1703: 400 windmills were destroyed by the greatest gale in the history of England caused by an intense low that passed just north of London. Many of the huge structures burned down from fires which started as their blades turned wildly in 80 mph winds. In London, roofs blew off and chimneys were toppled. The famed Eddystone Lighthouse was toppled by heavy seas. 123 people died on land, and another 8,000 died at sea as hundreds of vessels from the British fleet were lost, including four Men-Of-War. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1888 - A late season hurricane brushed the East Coast with heavy rain and gale force winds. The hurricane passed inside Nantucket and over Cape Cod, then crossed Nova Scotia. (David Ludlum)

1896 - Snow and high winds hit the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley, with a Thanksgiving Day blizzard across North Dakota. The storm was followed by a severe cold wave in the Upper Midwest. The temperature at Pokegama Dam MI plunged to 45 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

1950: Boston, Massachusetts on the 25th and 26th had a great easterly gale that caused $15 million damage. The strongest one minute average wind velocity was from the southeast at 80 mph. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1965: Snowstorm across northern U.S. with 14.7 inches at Duluth, MN 13.6 inches at Grand Rapids. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)


1974: A record early snow hit Caribou, ME with 22.3 inches falling in 24 hours and a storm total of 30 inches. This storm was the major contributor to Caribou's snowiest November on record at 34.9 inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1979: 74° on 25th and 26th are high point of 12-day warm spell 18th-29th in Washington, DC. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
A strong cold front moved through the Mid Atlantic during the afternoon bringing thunderstorms and gusty winds. Kutztown, PA reported a gust to 70 mph, Reading, PA gusted to 65 mph, Allentown, PA gusted to 62 mph and Philadelphia, PA reported a gust to 59 mph. The gusts tore the roofs or portions of roofs off houses and other buildings. Many trees were uprooted or broken off. Rain ruined a large amount of chemicals when the roof of a storage building was blown away. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983: A major snowstorm hit from Colorado to Wisconsin through the 28th. A fairly consistent 1 to 2 feet of snow was reported. Sydney, NE had the most with 27 inches. Blizzard conditions prevailed with wind gusts as high as 60 mph. Limon, CO reported near zero visibility in snow and blowing snow for a solid 24 hours. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1984: Copper City Utah:n an 18-hour period, the South Jordan and Copper City areas received 20 inches snow, while the eastern parts of the valley picked up only a couple of inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)
 

1987 - A Thanksgiving Day storm in the northeastern U.S. produced heavy snow in northern New England and upstate New York. Snowfall totals in Maine ranged up to twenty inches at Flagstaff Lake. Totals in New Hampshire ranged up to 18 inches at Errol. Gales lashed the coast of Maine and New Hampshire. A second storm, over the Southern and Central Rockies, produced nine inches of snow at Kanosh UT, and 13 inches at Divide CO, with five inches reported at Denver CO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Central Gulf Coast States during the late morning and afternoon hours. Five tornadoes were reported in Mississippi, with the tornadoes causing a million dollars damage at Ruleville, and in Warren County. In Utah, the town of Alta was blanketed with 15 inches of snow overnight, and during the day was buried under another 16.5 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A massive storm over the western U.S. produced heavy snow in Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and Montana. The storm produced more than two feet of snow in the higher elevations of northern and central Utah, bringing more than sixty inches of snow to the Alta Ski Resort in the Wasatch Mountains. Winds in Utah gusted to 60 mph at Bullfrog. The storm brought much needed snow to the ski resorts of Colorado, with 19 inches reported at Beaver Creek. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

 

[weathermedic]

.66 total at my station.

[weathermedic]

From the NWS OKX AFD:

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key points

* Winds of near 20 mph with gusts near 35 to 40 mph forecast for
  Thanksgiving. High temperatures Thanksgiving mainly low to mid 40s
  but wind chills stay in the 30s.

* Winds of near 25 mph with gusts near 40 to 45 mph forecast for
  Friday. There is still some model indication of near 50 mph
  wind gusts being possible. High temperatures Friday mainly in
  the upper 30s to lower 40s with wind chills staying mostly in
  the 20s to lower 30s.

The key points with the short term will be gusty winds and with the
higher winds, cold temperatures as well as wind chills. No
measurable precipitation is expected during the timeframe of
Thanksgiving through Friday night. There could be a few light
rain/snow showers with strong mid level vorticity maximum
pushing across on Friday. A much colder airmass will be across
the region during the short term.

[SACRUS]

 

Rain Totals (11/25)


New Brnswck: 0.76
NYC: 0.74
EWR: 0.72
LGA: 0.58
JFk: 0.58

[FPizz]

.79"

[SACRUS]

 

 

Low level clouds stubborn but up to 59.

 

[steve392]

What an awful day.  The 2 breaks I had in classroom training and it was just damp and raw.  Misty on drive home.  

[gravitylover]

25 minutes ago, steve392 said:

What an awful day.  The 2 breaks I had in classroom training and it was just damp and raw.  Misty on drive home.  

Better than if it was 34°

[psv88]

Lowest solar radiation day since I got these panels installed 6 weeks ago. Nasty misty day 

[qg_omega]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Lowest solar radiation day since I got these panels installed 6 weeks ago. Nasty misty day 

Got nice late

[Stormlover74]

[psv88]

27 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Got nice late

Not here. Saw blue sky for 5 min

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of the storm that brought rain to the region last night into early today, colder air will rush into the region tonight.

The closing days of November will be much colder. There is potential for New York City's Central Park to experience its first freeze of 2025. The 1991-2020 normal first data is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30.

The opening days of December will turn somewhat milder. However, colder conditions could begin to develop during the second half of that week and then continue into or through the second week of December. Severe cold appears unlikely through at least the first 10 days of December. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +20.23 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.232 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.9° (1.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[Stormlover74]

Pouring

[steve392]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Pouring

Got barely a drizzle by me out of all that. 

[psv88]

59 today, still 55 now

[bluewave]

NYC still waiting for their first 32° freeze and ISP their first 28° hard freeze. These minimums for the fall are near the warmest for the season. Same for FWN in NW NJ which still hasn’t dropped below 20° yet.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Sep through Nov Warmest fall  min temps
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1998	36	0
2	2009	35	0
-	2006	35	0
3	2016	34	0
-	2010	34	0
-	2001	34	0
-	1963	34	0
-	1902	34	0
4	2025	33	4
-	2011	33	0
-	1985	33	0
-	1948	33	0
-	1907	33	0
5	2015	32	0
-	1983	32	0
-	1968	32	0
-	1954	32	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Sep through Nov warmest fall  min temps
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1983	30	0
2	2025	29	4
-	2011	29	0
-	2006	29	0
3	2009	28	0
-	1985	28	0
4	2024	27	0
-	2016	27	0
-	1998	27	0
-	1980	27	0
-	1979	27	0
-	1977	27	0
-	1971	27	0
5	2012	26	0
-	2010	26	0
-	1988	26	0
-	1984	26	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Sep through Nov Warmest fall min temps
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	22	4
-	2011	22	6
-	2009	22	0
-	2006	22	0
2	2024	21	0
3	2023	20	5
-	2017	20	0
-	2016	20	8
4	2021	19	0
-	2020	19	0
-	2012	19	5
-	2004	19	0
-	2001	19	1
5	2015	18	0
-	2010	18	0
-	2003	18	0
-	2002	18	0

[wdrag]

Already 40kt KMPO.  Difficult to believe we won't have  fair amount of G40 kt Friday as the very cold trough aloft sweeps by and can in its wake arrives with flurries.  No time for a thread today. 

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Already 40kt KMPO.  Difficult to believe we won't have  fair amount of G40 kt Friday as the very cold trough aloft sweeps by and can in its wake arrives with flurries.  No time for a thread today. 

A record number of days this year for gusts over 40mph with so many lows racing through the Great Lakes.

 

 

[wdrag]

Thanksgiving prevails... Create new family memories and think about those who cannot be with us.

Still contemplating a thread for Friday... I think there will be wind gusts to 40 kt at all the airports, but may be will fall short by 3KT. Marginal except if you have no power. 

Also even though its not in most forecasts, I'll be looking for many flurries in NYC metro Fri afternoon.