November 2025 OBS Discussion

[donsutherland1]

A generally milder than normal pattern will likely continue through next Wednesday when a system could bring a period of rain. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely. 

The closing days of November will likely turn colder. There is potential for New York City's Central Park to experience its first freeze of 2025. The 1991-2020 normal first data is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30.

The opening days of December will turn milder. However, colder conditions could begin to develop during the second half of that week and continue through the second week of December. Severe cold appears unlikely through at least the first 10 days of December. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend, in part, on how the imminent stratospheric warming event propagates. 

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,395th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. That breaks the record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -1.40 today. The fall of 39.57 points was the largest such fall since April 27, 2006 when the SOI fell 42.35 points. It was also the fourth largest decline on record. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.384 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.7° (1.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[the_other_guy]

I was skiing at Belleayre on Friday and they are off to their best start in years. likewise, many resorts in the northeast.

 

I was in Park city last week. They are off to a horrendous start . no snow at all and not open.

 

that is what the Wasatch range looks like right now. Direct shot of Park City Mountain

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, Tatamy said:

The I78 Deathband event in PA, NJ, and parts of the city.  It was like a synoptic scale lake effect streamer.  The town south of me had 6” on the north end and 10” on the south end (5 minute drive).  Similar in parts of NJ.

This is why I would much rather roll the dice with a very strong El Niño even if the winter is very warm like 23-24. We got a one week relaxation from the overpowering Northern Stream which has been dominating last 7 years. The El Niño driven Southern Stream was 2nd strongest on record for DC.
 

 

[wdrag]

Planning a sct 45-50 MPH thread 6A-6P Friday for the entire NYC subforum. EPS has most sampling sites 40-43 MPH and has been trending conservative in recent daytime w-nw situations. Expecting a few detours, power outages.  Wind advisory potential. I will try to issue at 5P today or 6A Wednesday. 

As for Macy's Parade...  most gusts below 30 MPH Thursday, but cant rule out 35 MPH.

[nycwinter]

ny weather these days dry and windy..

[WX-PA]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is why I would much rather roll the dice with a very strong El Niño even if the winter is very warm like 23-24. We got a one week relaxation from the overpowering Northern Stream which has been dominating last 7 years. The El Niño driven Southern Stream was 2nd strongest on record for DC.
 

 

Very strong Nino in December is very warm and snowless. I'll skip that..December 65,72,82,86,91,97,15 and 22...good luck with that!

[TheClimateChanger]

Storm of the century raging 75 years ago today, with winds gusting up to 100 mph in New York.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Very strong Nino in December is very warm and snowless. I'll skip that..December 65,72,82,86,91,97,15 and 22...good luck with that!

I will take warm winter with a cold storm track over a cold or near normal winter and a warm storm track. 

[the_other_guy]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I will take warm winter with a cold storm track over a cold or near normal winter and a warm storm track. 

Dont bet on Nino if you live in NYC. Like putting money on the Jets. 2015-16 is a perfect example. Whole season in one giant storm. They could beat the Patriots; but dont bet on it

 

It also messes up the ski season in a big way

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Dont bet on Nino if you live in NYC. Like putting money on the Jets. 2015-16 is a perfect example. Whole season in one giant storm. They could beat the Patriots; but dont bet on it

 

It also messes up the ski season in a big way

Rather have a juiced STJ and storm chances vs the northern stream dominant during Nina’s. That causes SWFE/cutter favored patterns and Miller Bs that can develop too late. I’d say I-84 is the cutoff for where Nina is a better winter on average vs Nino. 

[Brian5671]

43 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Dont bet on Nino if you live in NYC. Like putting money on the Jets. 2015-16 is a perfect example. Whole season in one giant storm. They could beat the Patriots; but dont bet on it

 

It also messes up the ski season in a big way

yeah lots of cutters that year which led to icy conditions

[psv88]

45 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Rather have a juiced STJ and storm chances vs the northern stream dominant during Nina’s. That causes SWFE/cutter favored patterns and Miller Bs that can develop too late. I’d say I-84 is the cutoff for where Nina is a better winter on average vs Nino. 

Agreed. Juice it up

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Dont bet on Nino if you live in NYC. Like putting money on the Jets. 2015-16 is a perfect example. Whole season in one giant storm. They could beat the Patriots; but dont bet on it

 

It also messes up the ski season in a big way

We haven’t been able to bet on El Niños or La Ninas near NYC over the past 7 winters with how strong the Northern Stream has become. In the old days some of my heaviest snowstorms were during El Niños back on the South Shore up to 2015-2016. These days you really want elevation and latitude in the Northeast.

 

[SACRUS]

 

55 / 41 some light rain working its way in.  After many tough or reach low 60s tomorrow much cooler/colder the next 4- 6 days.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 73 (1979)
NYC: 73 (1979)
LGA: 68 (1979)
JFK: 67 (1979)


Lows;

EWR: 19 (1938)
NYC: 19 (1938)
LGA: 23 (2005)
JFK: 22 (2005)

 

Historical:

 

 

1703: The greatest windstorm ever recorded in the southern part of Great Britain, reaches its peak intensity which it maintains through November 27. Winds gust up to 120 mph, and 9,000 people perish in the mighty gale. This gives rise to the claims that there have been five lighthouses on Eddystone Rock. Winstanley's tower lasted until the Great Storm of 1703 erased almost all trace on 27 November. Winstanley was on the lighthouse, completing additions to the structure. No trace was found of him.(1703 Great Storm of 1703 - Wikipedia.org)


1784: A great windstorm at Bennington, VT and the "Violent Southeast Storm" at Portsmouth, NH seemed to be an analog of a similar storm of 1950. Portsmouth had a very high tide and flooding. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1918: Southern California had its worst windstorm in 40 years as wind gusts at Mt. Wilson reached 96 mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1926: Arkansas: Killer tornado strikes Belleville and Portland. 53 die. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1938: It was the largest snow of record for November. Thanksgiving night & 26th snowstorm, 6.4 at WBO with .6 sleet, 8.5 at Baltimore Early heavy snowstorms dumped 6.4 inches in Washington, DC and Northern Virginia and as much a one to 2.5 feet of snow in western Maryland and the Virginia mountains. Hundred of automobiles were snowbound on the highway during the Thanksgiving holiday travel period. Three Virginians died in the storm. (Ref. Virginia Weather History)

 

1950 - A great storm hit the Northern and Central Appalachians with snow and high winds. Winds reached hurricane force along eastern slopes of the Appalachians, with gusts to 100 mph at Hartford CT, 110 mph at Concord NH, and 160 mph at Mount Washington NH. Heavy rain also hit the eastern slopes, with eight inches reported at Slide Mountain NY. The western slopes were buried under heavy snow. The storm produced record snowfall totals of 27.7 inches at Pittsburgh PA, and 36.3 inches at Steubenville OH. The snow, and record cold temperatures, resulted in 160 deaths. (25th-26th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)Columbus, Ohio: Record low temperature of 5°F (-15°C) greets the fans heading for the Michigan-Ohio State football game. But this was no ordinary tilt between the conference rivals. Played under heavy, blowing snow, it became known as the Blizzard Bowl. (Ref. WxDoctor) Locations reporting their COLDEST NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE ON RECORD included: Neillsville, WI: -16°, Muskegon, MI: -14° (beat the previous record by 29 degrees) and Grand Rapids, MI: -10°. Other daily record low temperatures included: Chicago, IL: 0°, Springfield, IL: 0°, Cincinnati, OH: 0°, Beckley, WV: 1°, Huntsville, AL: 1°, Asheville, NC: 1°, Dayton, OH: 3°, Atlanta, GA: 3°, Elkins, WV: 4°, Bristol, TN: 5°, Charleston, WV: 6°, Athens, GA: 7°, Pittsburgh, PA: 7°, Roanoke, VA: 9°, Lynchburg, VA: 11°, Charlotte, NC: 14°, Charleston, SC: 15°, Raleigh, NC: 16°, Harrisburg, PA: 16°, Wilmington, NC: 20°, Washington, DC: 21°, Pensacola, FL: 22°, Norfolk, VA: 22°, Cape Hatteras, NC: 26°, Orlando, FL: 31°, Galveston, TX: 38° and Fort Myers, FL: 39°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1950: Called the "storm of the century" this storm impacted the eastern part of the US, killing hundreds and causing millions of dollars in damages. New York City recorded a 94 mph wind gust and Bear Mountain, just north of the city recorded a 140 mph gust. Record low temperatures were reported on the southern end of this storm in Tennessee and North Carolina. This storm was unique as Pittsburgh saw 30 inches of snow, while Buffalo saw 50 degrees with 50 mph wind gusts.

 

1958: Strong pre-frontal Chinook winds struck the foothills in Colorado. A wind gust of 100 mph was reported northwest of Denver and a gust of 88 mph was reported at Rocky Flats south of Boulder. The windstorm caused considerable structural damage to residential sections in parts of Denver. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1970 - The temperature at Tallahassee, FL, dipped to 13 degrees, following a high of 40 degrees the previous day. The mercury then reached 67 degrees on the 26th, and highs were in the 70s the rest of the month. (The Weather Channel)

1983 - The Great Thanksgiving Weekend Blizzard hit Denver, CO. The storm produced 21.5 inches of snow in 37 hours, closing Stapleton Airport for 24 hours. The snow and wind closed interstate highways around Denver. Visibility at Limon CO was down to zero for 24 hours. (The Weather Channel)

1985: Upper level low pressure over western Canada and a trough brought record low temperatures from the northern Rockies to the Pacific Northwest including: Great Falls, MT: -21°, Glasgow, MT: -20°, Duluth, MN: -16°, Helena, MT: -15°, Billings, MT: -11°, Sheridan, WY: -9°, Yakima, WA: -7°, Burns, OR: -5°, Marquette, MI: -4°, Spokane, WA: -3° , Rapid City, SD: -2°, Boise, ID: 3°, Pendleton, OR: 4°, Lewiston, ID: 6°, Salem, OR: 12°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - An early morning thunderstorm in southeastern Texas produced high winds which rolled a mobile home east of Bay City killing two of the four occupants. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in central and eastern Texas, with nine inches reported at Huntsville, and 8.5 inches at Wimberly. Snow fell across northern and central Lower Michigan, with totals ranging up to nine inches at Cadillac. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northwest Texas during the day and into the night. Thunderstorms in Texas produced softball size hail at Alba, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Krum. Hail and high winds caused nearly five million dollars damage at Kaufman TX, and strong downburst winds derailed twenty-eight freight cars at Fruitvale TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989: A strong Pacific storm dumped one to three feet of snow on higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Range of California and Nevada. Snowfall totals in California ranged up to 38 inches at Donner Summit, with 30 inches at the Sierra Ski Ranch. The storm also produced heavy snow in Oregon, with 23 inches reported at Santiam Pass. Another storm crossing the Central Rockies produced 12 to 18 inches of snow in the northern and central mountains of Colorado. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1993: A storm system brought wintry weather from the central Plains to the upper Midwest. Heavy snow fell over portions of northwest, north-central and central Wisconsin with amounts ranging from 6 to 13 inches. Snow covered roads led to multiple accidents. Browning, WI reported 13 inches and Austin, MN had 2.5 inches liquid equivalent, their wettest November day. Atop Squaw Mountain near Idaho Springs, CO reported a wind gust of 99 mph. The Thanksgiving Day game between the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins was memorable because of the weather. Heavy sleet during the game covered the field with a thick white coating and made play difficult. The Dolphins won on a last second field goal. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
Behind the storm, a deep upper level low & surface high pressure brought record low temperatures including: Havre, MT: -23°: Tied, Lander, WY: -15°: Tied, Kalispell, MT: -14°, Casper, WY: -12°, Cheyenne, WY: -11°, Missoula, MT: -10°, Burns, OR: -9°, Winnemucca, NV: -6°, Pueblo, CO: -6°, Colorado Springs, CO: -4°, Norfolk, NE: -3°, Goodland, KS: -1°, Pendleton, OR: 2°, Lewiston, ID: 2°, Salt Lake City, UT: 3°, Dodge City, KS: 3°, Lincoln, NE: 4°, Concordia, KS: 6°, Amarillo, TX: 8°, Topeka, KS: 11°, Wichita, KS: 11°, Portland, ME: 11°-Tied, Bishop, CA:  12°, Olympia, WA: 13°, Oklahoma City, OK: 15°, Eugene, OR: 16°, Medford, OR: 16°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)