Melissa

[GaWx]

 6Z Euro is very similar to the 0Z with strongest again at 968 S of C Jamaica, 988 near Kingston, and sharp right turn to E tip of Jamaica exiting at 992.

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
 
...MELISSA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY 
THIS WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES 
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 75.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[NorthHillsWx]

Outflow finally expanding to the west. Seems like it’s getting there 

[NorthHillsWx]

Recon would indicate a hurricane 

[hawkeye_wx]

The Google model continues to not budge.  Many of its tracks are south of west for the next couple days.

 

[GaWx]

8:27 AM EDT: 986 mb very near H status
 

943
URNT12 KWBC 251227
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132025
A. 25/12:03:08Z
B. 16.41 deg N 074.88 deg W
C. NA
D. 986 mb
E. 195 deg 16 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C18
H. NA
I. NA
J. 167 deg 65 kt
K. 067 deg 10 nm 12:00:31Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 325 deg 46 kt
O. 242 deg 13 nm 12:06:34Z
P. 14 C / 2460 m
Q. 21 C / 2443 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 1113A MELISSA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 68 KT 299 / 16 NM 10:47:30Z

[Newman]

Cat 3, 4, 5... Whatever the landfalling intensity is, I'm sure much of Jamaica does not have infrastructure built to withstand major hurricane winds. Really hoping a worst case scenario (i.e. right eye wall traverses through Kingston) doesn't happen. 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, Newman said:

Cat 3, 4, 5... Whatever the landfalling intensity is, I'm sure much of Jamaica does not have infrastructure built to withstand major hurricane winds. Really hoping a worst case scenario (i.e. right eye wall traverses through Kingston) doesn't happen. 

Hopefully the hurricane models are somewhat too strong as is not uncommon. 0Z and 6Z Euro say it won’t quite make it to cat 3 status before landfall although it was too weak as of 8AM (991 mb) and only down to 988 mb at 2PM. So, the implication is likely at least cat 3 offshore. But then it weakens her 20 mb by the time it gets to Kingston with ENE movement over E Jamaica. Is that a realistic possibility? Regardless, Kingston eastward still gets extremely heavy rain (15-20”+), which likely remains the biggest danger.

 ——————-

Recon through 9:10AM:

 

[qg_omega]

15 minutes ago, Newman said:

Cat 3, 4, 5... Whatever the landfalling intensity is, I'm sure much of Jamaica does not have infrastructure built to withstand major hurricane winds. Really hoping a worst case scenario (i.e. right eye wall traverses through Kingston) doesn't happen. 

6z GFS with the best scenario

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

6z GFS with the best scenario

Best for Jamaica but worst for SW Haiti with insane amounts of rainfall

[olafminesaw]

Looks like it will get the upgrade to hurricane at 11

[olafminesaw]

[GaWx]

56 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like it will get the upgrade to hurricane at 11

Not yet:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
 
...MELISSA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY 
INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 75.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES