Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 01:32 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:32 PM 8 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: My weekend plans are all indoors, bring it on. Just need the rain out quick Wednesday AM in western Howard County. Looks good so far on the guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 02:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:15 PM 1 hour ago, high risk said: It wasn’t consistent, but even before Saturday, there were some ECAIFS runs last week that showed the coastal threat. I remain thoroughly impressed by what the ECAIFS can sniff out well before the physics-based models catch on. Yeah, I’ve been tracking quietly for a few days now for the hybrid aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted yesterday at 02:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:34 PM Just saw the 0z Euro. That is uh... something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 02:40 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:40 PM 5 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: Just saw the 0z Euro. That is uh... something. The 850 jet on the Euro is really intruguing. That would just stream moisture off the Atlantic into us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 04:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:30 PM Big shift west on the 12Z GFS for the potential coastal early next week. Will also post GEFS when it comes out. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 04:44 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:44 PM 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Big shift west on the 12Z GFS for the potential coastal early next week. Will also post GEFS when it comes out. Wow that's a legit soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted yesterday at 04:46 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:46 PM 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wow that's a legit soaker. It’ll shift so far west so that it’ll dry slot us. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted yesterday at 05:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:03 PM 15 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: It’ll shift so far west so that it’ll dry slot us. Or, even go further South depending on the power and position of the block, just too early to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted yesterday at 05:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:03 PM Meanwhile, GGEM shifted way east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 05:05 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:05 PM 17 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: It’ll shift so far west so that it’ll dry slot us. Ugh, Euro ENS already pushing the mix line to I-70. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 05:17 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:17 PM WB 12Z GEFS mean is well east of its global. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 05:25 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:25 PM WB 12Z AI is a tick east. Euro spins off the SE coast and then dissipates over the SC/GA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Wow, I thought the rug pull would wait until Wednesday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Wow, I thought the rug pull would wait until Wednesday. Still got your hopes up for a second, so it served its purpose. The weather Gods will allow our weekend activities to remain, as long as this shockingly boring and dry pattern continues (save for this trough / cold front thing tomorrow night / wed AM.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 23 hours ago Author Share Posted 23 hours ago 3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Wow, I thought the rug pull would wait until Wednesday. Wait until you're inside 60 hours anymore. We've seen so many HR 60 - 100 rug pulls, especially in the winter, these past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 12 minutes ago, EstorilM said: Still got your hopes up for a second, so it served its purpose. The weather Gods will allow our weekend activities to remain, as long as this shockingly boring and dry pattern continues (save for this trough / cold front thing tomorrow night / wed AM.) Watch Wednesday’s current forecast totals become overly optimistic as a result of a “day of” rug pull. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wait until you're inside 65 hours anymore. We've seen so manyHR 60 - 100 rug pulls, especially in the winter, these past few years. last winter makes me paranoid but careful optimism is always a decent strategy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago WB 12Z EPS and AI ensembles are off the coast for the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Saturday’s rain will be an Imelda redux, I’m calling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 43 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Saturday’s rain will be an Imelda redux, I’m calling it. The number of operational runs that gave us 1+" of rain I can probably count on one hand. We came into this event expecting this to go out to sea, so it's a miracle that we're even talking about rain on the table. So please, enlighten me, on how this will be an Imelda redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 23 minutes ago, bncho said: The number of operational runs that gave us 1+" of rain I can probably count on one hand. We came into this event expecting this to go out to sea, so it's a miracle that we're even talking about rain on the table. So please, enlighten me, on how this will be an Imelda redux. Also might have a handful of model runs D5+ that impact us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago WB 18Z ensembles. GEFS has a few members tracking close to the mid Atlantic coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 1 hour ago, bncho said: The number of operational runs that gave us 1+" of rain I can probably count on one hand. We came into this event expecting this to go out to sea, so it's a miracle that we're even talking about rain on the table. So please, enlighten me, on how this will be an Imelda redux. Exactly in the way you described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Huge uncertainty for the weekend persists. Cool temps and gusty northeast winds seem fairly likely, but whether we get a soaking, nothing, or something in between is completely unresolved, although it does appear like the potential for a significant QPF event is waning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago Overnight op GFS tries to tank the NAO towards the 20th - 22nd of October. If this were winter. . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Mount Holly's forecast for this Friday through Monday has no mention of rain for my area. Yesterday it had a 30 % chance of showers. Seems the probability of significant rainfall is decreasing although the range of outcomes is mentioned in the morning AFD. Guidance still differs in the evolution of the coastal system from Saturday night into early next week, but we are beginning to see a range of potential outcomes for our area. A weaker and/or farther south solution with the surface low would translate to lesser impacts and lower chances of showers for our region. A stronger and/or farther north placement of the surface low pressure would translate to greater and potentially more significant impacts to our area, especially along and near the coast. This may include potential for coastal flooding, beach erosion, and strong winds near the coast and possibly inland across the coastal plain. Again, a lot of uncertainty with this system, but it bears monitoring closely as it could pack a punch if it draws close enough to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Nice rug pull for the weekend. Looks like rain will stay where it always rains (east of 95) and leaves the highlands dry. Sucks for drought out there but good for my weekend plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Walkbacks beget further walkbacks. This will be fully out to sea by Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, JenkinsJinkies said: Walkbacks beget further walkbacks. This will be fully out to sea by Thursday. Back to the original forecast for a beautiful weekend hopefully. Low 60's with a breeze and blue sky sounds amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 12z ICON bring a soaking 1.5" - 2.5" of rainfall to just about the entire subforum starting late in the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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