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October Medium/Long Range Discussion


Eskimo Joe
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1 hour ago, high risk said:

It wasn’t consistent, but even before Saturday, there were some ECAIFS runs last week that showed the coastal threat.   I remain thoroughly impressed by what the ECAIFS can sniff out well before the physics-based models catch on.  

Yeah, I’ve been tracking quietly for a few days now for the hybrid aspect. 

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9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Wow, I thought the rug pull would wait until Wednesday.

Still got your hopes up for a second, so it served its purpose. :lol:

The weather Gods will allow our weekend activities to remain, as long as this shockingly boring and dry pattern continues (save for this trough / cold front thing tomorrow night / wed AM.) 

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12 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

Still got your hopes up for a second, so it served its purpose. :lol:

The weather Gods will allow our weekend activities to remain, as long as this shockingly boring and dry pattern continues (save for this trough / cold front thing tomorrow night / wed AM.) 

Watch Wednesday’s current forecast totals become overly optimistic as a result of a “day of” rug pull.

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49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wait until you're inside 65 hours anymore. We've seen so manyHR 60 - 100 rug pulls, especially in the winter, these past few years.

last winter makes me paranoid but careful optimism is always a decent strategy

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43 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Saturday’s rain will be an Imelda redux, I’m calling it.

The number of operational runs that gave us 1+" of rain I can probably count on one hand. We came into this event expecting this to go out to sea, so it's a miracle that we're even talking about rain on the table. So please, enlighten me, on how this will be an Imelda redux.

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23 minutes ago, bncho said:

The number of operational runs that gave us 1+" of rain I can probably count on one hand. We came into this event expecting this to go out to sea, so it's a miracle that we're even talking about rain on the table. So please, enlighten me, on how this will be an Imelda redux.

Also might have a handful of model runs D5+ that impact us 

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1 hour ago, bncho said:

The number of operational runs that gave us 1+" of rain I can probably count on one hand. We came into this event expecting this to go out to sea, so it's a miracle that we're even talking about rain on the table. So please, enlighten me, on how this will be an Imelda redux.

Exactly in the way you described.

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Huge uncertainty for the weekend persists.   Cool temps and gusty northeast winds seem fairly likely, but whether we get a soaking, nothing, or something in between is completely unresolved, although it does appear like the potential for a significant QPF event is waning.

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Mount Holly's  forecast for this Friday through Monday has no mention of rain for my area. Yesterday it had a 30 % chance of showers. Seems the probability of significant rainfall is decreasing although the range of outcomes is mentioned in the morning AFD.

 

 

Guidance still differs in the evolution of the coastal system
from Saturday night into early next week, but we are beginning
to see a range of potential outcomes for our area. A weaker
and/or farther south solution with the surface low would
translate to lesser impacts and lower chances of showers for our
region. A stronger and/or farther north placement of the
surface low pressure would translate to greater and potentially
more significant impacts to our area, especially along and near
the coast. This may include potential for coastal flooding,
beach erosion, and strong winds near the coast and possibly
inland across the coastal plain. Again, a lot of uncertainty
with this system, but it bears monitoring closely as it could
pack a punch if it draws close enough to our area.
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