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October Medium/Long Range Discussion


Eskimo Joe
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1 hour ago, high risk said:

It wasn’t consistent, but even before Saturday, there were some ECAIFS runs last week that showed the coastal threat.   I remain thoroughly impressed by what the ECAIFS can sniff out well before the physics-based models catch on.  

Yeah, I’ve been tracking quietly for a few days now for the hybrid aspect. 

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9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Wow, I thought the rug pull would wait until Wednesday.

Still got your hopes up for a second, so it served its purpose. :lol:

The weather Gods will allow our weekend activities to remain, as long as this shockingly boring and dry pattern continues (save for this trough / cold front thing tomorrow night / wed AM.) 

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12 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

Still got your hopes up for a second, so it served its purpose. :lol:

The weather Gods will allow our weekend activities to remain, as long as this shockingly boring and dry pattern continues (save for this trough / cold front thing tomorrow night / wed AM.) 

Watch Wednesday’s current forecast totals become overly optimistic as a result of a “day of” rug pull.

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49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wait until you're inside 65 hours anymore. We've seen so manyHR 60 - 100 rug pulls, especially in the winter, these past few years.

last winter makes me paranoid but careful optimism is always a decent strategy

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43 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Saturday’s rain will be an Imelda redux, I’m calling it.

The number of operational runs that gave us 1+" of rain I can probably count on one hand. We came into this event expecting this to go out to sea, so it's a miracle that we're even talking about rain on the table. So please, enlighten me, on how this will be an Imelda redux.

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23 minutes ago, bncho said:

The number of operational runs that gave us 1+" of rain I can probably count on one hand. We came into this event expecting this to go out to sea, so it's a miracle that we're even talking about rain on the table. So please, enlighten me, on how this will be an Imelda redux.

Also might have a handful of model runs D5+ that impact us 

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1 hour ago, bncho said:

The number of operational runs that gave us 1+" of rain I can probably count on one hand. We came into this event expecting this to go out to sea, so it's a miracle that we're even talking about rain on the table. So please, enlighten me, on how this will be an Imelda redux.

Exactly in the way you described.

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