October Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

My weekend plans are all indoors, bring it on.

Just need the rain out quick Wednesday AM in western Howard County. Looks good so far on the guidance.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, high risk said:

It wasn’t consistent, but even before Saturday, there were some ECAIFS runs last week that showed the coastal threat.   I remain thoroughly impressed by what the ECAIFS can sniff out well before the physics-based models catch on.  

Yeah, I’ve been tracking quietly for a few days now for the hybrid aspect. 

[wxmeddler]

Just saw the 0z Euro. That is uh... something.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Just saw the 0z Euro. That is uh... something.

The 850 jet on the Euro is really intruguing. That would just stream moisture off the Atlantic into us.

[Weather Will]

Big shift west on the 12Z GFS for the potential coastal early next week.  Will also post GEFS when it comes out.

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Big shift west on the 12Z GFS for the potential coastal early next week.  Will also post GEFS when it comes out.

Wow that's a legit soaker.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wow that's a legit soaker.

It’ll shift so far west so that it’ll dry slot us.

[frd]

15 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

It’ll shift so far west so that it’ll dry slot us.

Or, even go further South depending on the power and position of the block, just too early to know. 

[WxUSAF]

Meanwhile, GGEM shifted way east

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

It’ll shift so far west so that it’ll dry slot us.

Ugh, Euro ENS already pushing the mix line to I-70. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS mean is well east of its global.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z AI is a tick east. Euro spins off the SE coast and then dissipates over the SC/GA border.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Wow, I thought the rug pull would wait until Wednesday.

[EstorilM]

9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Wow, I thought the rug pull would wait until Wednesday.

Still got your hopes up for a second, so it served its purpose. 

The weather Gods will allow our weekend activities to remain, as long as this shockingly boring and dry pattern continues (save for this trough / cold front thing tomorrow night / wed AM.) 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Wow, I thought the rug pull would wait until Wednesday.

Wait until you're inside 60 hours anymore. We've seen so many HR 60 - 100 rug pulls, especially in the winter, these past few years.

[JenkinsJinkies]

12 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

Still got your hopes up for a second, so it served its purpose. 

The weather Gods will allow our weekend activities to remain, as long as this shockingly boring and dry pattern continues (save for this trough / cold front thing tomorrow night / wed AM.) 

Watch Wednesday’s current forecast totals become overly optimistic as a result of a “day of” rug pull.

[bncho]

49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wait until you're inside 65 hours anymore. We've seen so manyHR 60 - 100 rug pulls, especially in the winter, these past few years.

last winter makes me paranoid but careful optimism is always a decent strategy

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS and AI ensembles are off the coast for the coastal.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Saturday’s rain will be an Imelda redux, I’m calling it.