Eskimo Joe Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM Here's to dark beers, pumpkins, and epic PDO pattern shaping up 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Tuesday at 10:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:38 PM Guidance hinting that late next week could be first legit cold front 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Tuesday at 11:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:03 PM 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Guidance hinting that late next week could be first legit cold front let it snow! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Wednesday at 03:16 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:16 AM 9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: epic PDO pattern shaping up In the ENSO thread they're saying that the warm blobs are in the wrong places for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 09:22 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:22 AM 10 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Guidance hinting that late next week could be first legit cold front That will also be our next chance of rain it appears. As modeled its a pretty impressive digging trough with associated shortwave energy. In the days prior to that we will probably have some of the dreaded October warmth with dewpoints creeping up as high pressure shifts into the western Atlantic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Wednesday at 02:09 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 02:09 PM 10 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: In the ENSO thread they're saying that the warm blobs are in the wrong places for us. I'm trying to live the lie that we still have real winters in this part of the world. Let me believe the hype for just a little bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Wednesday at 04:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:20 PM Long range snow totals for GFS and Euro showing a lot of Canada getting snow the next 2 weeks. Gfs is way more excited about it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Wednesday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:50 PM 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: Long range snow totals for GFS and Euro showing a lot of Canada getting snow the next 2 weeks. Gfs is way more excited about it let it snow (in canada) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Friday at 02:33 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:33 PM Looks like the cold front for the middle of next week is trending drier (good). Need to get some field work completed in western Howard County next week. Wouldn't mind a bit of rain, but a total washout would be no bueno. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Friday at 10:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:56 PM welp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 11:20 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:20 PM 23 minutes ago, Paleocene said: welp I’m fine with a mild October. Nice weather for one, and cold Octobers here historically have led to warmer winters. Don’t ask me about the science behind it, but I’ve noticed it in the monthly data from KIAD when doing some analysis on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Friday at 11:25 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:25 PM 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I’m fine with a mild October. Nice weather for one, and cold Octobers here historically have led to warmer winters. Don’t ask me about the science behind it, but I’ve noticed it in the monthly data from KIAD when doing some analysis on it. Agreed on the mild. I just want some rain. Last october was dry and gorgeous IIRC. And good to know about that correlation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Saturday at 03:02 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:02 AM 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: I’m fine with a mild October. Nice weather for one, and cold Octobers here historically have led to warmer winters. Don’t ask me about the science behind it, but I’ve noticed it in the monthly data from KIAD when doing some analysis on it. if I remember correctly - we had a Halloween snow in the NYC area last decade (the Army football game at West Point that day was a winter wonderland - and Central Park was just absolutely filled with downed branches after) - and that led to a winter with virtually no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Saturday at 06:48 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 06:48 AM 3 hours ago, pazzo83 said: if I remember correctly - we had a Halloween snow in the NYC area last decade (the Army football game at West Point that day was a winter wonderland - and Central Park was just absolutely filled with downed branches after) - and that led to a winter with virtually no snow. You're thinking of the October 2011 event. Highly elevation dependent snow event for a good chunk of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. The rest of the winter was total garbage as you said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 08:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:09 PM Looks like maybe a quarter to a half inch of rain with the mid week cold front followed by more glorious early Fall weather late next week with high temps in the mid to upper 60s. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Saturday at 10:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:17 PM Ensembles all build a respectable -NAO D10+. Right now only GEPS shows an eastern trough response concurrently, but maybe EPS and GEFS move that way? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Saturday at 11:17 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 11:17 PM 59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ensembles all build a respectable -NAO D10+. Right now only GEPS shows an eastern trough response concurrently, but maybe EPS and GEFS move that way? This is out first real chance at a test to see if the D10 favorable pattern actually has a chance, or if it's just a pipe dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 01:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:31 AM 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Ensembles all build a respectable -NAO D10+. Right now only GEPS shows an eastern trough response concurrently, but maybe EPS and GEFS move that way? Wouldn't mind seeing an h5 pattern like this in January. Spilt flow look with favorable NA and thermal boundary pressed just to the south.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 02:28 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:28 AM 55 minutes ago, CAPE said: Wouldn't mind seeing an h5 pattern like this in January. Spilt flow look with favorable NA and thermal boundary pressed just to the south.. Would you be considered at the zonal flow into western Canada? Would argue that's a Pacific puke setup to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 02:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:48 AM 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Would you be considered at the zonal flow into western Canada? Would argue that's a Pacific puke setup to our north. In January? Follow the flow. That better be cold enough with negative h5 heights just to our north under a -NAO. Otherwise we might as well just give up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 12 hours ago, CAPE said: In January? Follow the flow. That better be cold enough with negative h5 heights just to our north under a -NAO. Otherwise we might as well just give up lol. We've had recent winters where the pattern wasn't the problem, it was just too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 54 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: We've had recent winters where the pattern wasn't the problem, it was just too warm. Sure. My original point was if we had the advertised h5 look on that run in January, there would be a chance. In this area, plenty can go wrong- and often does- even with a so-called epic look. No such thing as a cant miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago WB latest EURO seasonal thru March by month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago I’m intrigued 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Maybe I just hadn’t noticed yet, but overnight runs jumped on this coastal low giving us rain this weekend. Looking back, 18z Saturday Euro AI was the first run to pull it west enough for rain in the metro areas, but overnight 0z runs are really the first showing rain on the physics-based models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 51 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Maybe I just hadn’t noticed yet, but overnight runs jumped on this coastal low giving us rain this weekend. Looking back, 18z Saturday Euro AI was the first run to pull it west enough for rain in the metro areas, but overnight 0z runs are really the first showing rain on the physics-based models. Especially the Euro. It basically washes out the weekend. Of course I have plans so it's definitely a lock. I thought droughts were dry lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Maybe I just hadn’t noticed yet, but overnight runs jumped on this coastal low giving us rain this weekend. Looking back, 18z Saturday Euro AI was the first run to pull it west enough for rain in the metro areas, but overnight 0z runs are really the first showing rain on the physics-based models. It wasn’t consistent, but even before Saturday, there were some ECAIFS runs last week that showed the coastal threat. I remain thoroughly impressed by what the ECAIFS can sniff out well before the physics-based models catch on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: Especially the Euro. It basically washes out the weekend. Of course I have plans so it's definitely a lock. I thought droughts were dry lol Would be a drought busting event. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago 2 hours ago, dailylurker said: Especially the Euro. It basically washes out the weekend. Of course I have plans so it's definitely a lock. I thought droughts were dry lol My weekend plans are all indoors, bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 34 minutes ago Share Posted 34 minutes ago 45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Would be a drought busting event. Bring it on. let it rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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