October Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

Here's to dark beers, pumpkins, and epic PDO pattern shaping up

[WxUSAF]

Guidance hinting that late next week could be first legit cold front 

[bncho]

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Guidance hinting that late next week could be first legit cold front 

let it snow!

[JenkinsJinkies]

9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

epic PDO pattern shaping up

In the ENSO thread they're saying that the warm blobs are in the wrong places for us.

[CAPE]

10 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Guidance hinting that late next week could be first legit cold front 

That will also be our next chance of rain it appears. As modeled its a pretty impressive digging trough with associated shortwave energy. In the days prior to that we will probably have some of the dreaded October warmth with dewpoints creeping up as high pressure shifts into the western Atlantic.

[Eskimo Joe]

10 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

In the ENSO thread they're saying that the warm blobs are in the wrong places for us.

I'm trying to live the lie that we still have real winters in this part of the world. Let me believe the hype for just a little bit longer.

[midatlanticweather]

Long range snow totals for GFS and Euro showing a lot of Canada getting snow the next 2 weeks. Gfs is way more excited about it 

[bncho]

1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said:

Long range snow totals for GFS and Euro showing a lot of Canada getting snow the next 2 weeks. Gfs is way more excited about it 

let it snow (in canada)

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like the cold front for the middle of next week is trending drier (good). Need to get some field work completed in western Howard County next week. Wouldn't mind a bit of rain, but a total washout would be no bueno.

[Paleocene]

welp

 

[Terpeast]

23 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

welp

 

I’m fine with a mild October. Nice weather for one, and cold Octobers here historically have led to warmer winters. Don’t ask me about the science behind it, but I’ve noticed it in the monthly data from KIAD when doing some analysis on it.

[Paleocene]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m fine with a mild October. Nice weather for one, and cold Octobers here historically have led to warmer winters. Don’t ask me about the science behind it, but I’ve noticed it in the monthly data from KIAD when doing some analysis on it.

Agreed on the mild. I just want some rain. Last october was dry and gorgeous IIRC.  And good to know about that correlation!

[pazzo83]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I’m fine with a mild October. Nice weather for one, and cold Octobers here historically have led to warmer winters. Don’t ask me about the science behind it, but I’ve noticed it in the monthly data from KIAD when doing some analysis on it.

if I remember correctly - we had a Halloween snow in the NYC area last decade (the Army football game at West Point that day was a winter wonderland - and Central Park was just absolutely filled with downed branches after) - and that led to a winter with virtually no snow.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

if I remember correctly - we had a Halloween snow in the NYC area last decade (the Army football game at West Point that day was a winter wonderland - and Central Park was just absolutely filled with downed branches after) - and that led to a winter with virtually no snow.

You're thinking of the October 2011 event. Highly elevation dependent snow event for a good chunk of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. The rest of the winter was total garbage as you said.

[CAPE]

Looks like maybe a quarter to a half inch of rain with the mid week cold front followed by more glorious early Fall weather late next week with high temps in the mid to upper 60s.

[WxUSAF]

Ensembles all build a respectable -NAO D10+. Right now only GEPS shows an eastern trough response concurrently, but maybe EPS and GEFS move that way?

[Eskimo Joe]

59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ensembles all build a respectable -NAO D10+. Right now only GEPS shows an eastern trough response concurrently, but maybe EPS and GEFS move that way?

This is out first real chance at a test to see if the D10 favorable pattern actually has a chance, or if it's just a pipe dream.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Ensembles all build a respectable -NAO D10+. Right now only GEPS shows an eastern trough response concurrently, but maybe EPS and GEFS move that way?

Wouldn't mind seeing an h5 pattern like this in January. Spilt flow look with favorable NA and thermal boundary pressed just to the south..

[Eskimo Joe]

55 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Wouldn't mind seeing an h5 pattern like this in January. Spilt flow look with favorable NA and thermal boundary pressed just to the south..

Would you be considered at the zonal flow into western Canada? Would argue that's a Pacific puke setup to our north.

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would you be considered at the zonal flow into western Canada? Would argue that's a Pacific puke setup to our north.

In January? Follow the flow. That better be cold enough with negative h5 heights just to our north under a -NAO. Otherwise we might as well just give up lol.

[JenkinsJinkies]

12 hours ago, CAPE said:

In January? Follow the flow. That better be cold enough with negative h5 heights just to our north under a -NAO. Otherwise we might as well just give up lol.

We've had recent winters where the pattern wasn't the problem, it was just too warm.

[CAPE]

54 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

We've had recent winters where the pattern wasn't the problem, it was just too warm.

Sure. My original point was if we had the advertised h5 look on that run in January, there would be a chance. In this area, plenty can go wrong- and often does- even with a so-called epic look. No such thing as a cant miss.