Eskimo Joe Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 Here's to dark beers, pumpkins, and epic PDO pattern shaping up 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 Guidance hinting that late next week could be first legit cold front 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Guidance hinting that late next week could be first legit cold front let it snow! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: epic PDO pattern shaping up In the ENSO thread they're saying that the warm blobs are in the wrong places for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 10 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Guidance hinting that late next week could be first legit cold front That will also be our next chance of rain it appears. As modeled its a pretty impressive digging trough with associated shortwave energy. In the days prior to that we will probably have some of the dreaded October warmth with dewpoints creeping up as high pressure shifts into the western Atlantic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1 Author Share Posted October 1 10 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: In the ENSO thread they're saying that the warm blobs are in the wrong places for us. I'm trying to live the lie that we still have real winters in this part of the world. Let me believe the hype for just a little bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Long range snow totals for GFS and Euro showing a lot of Canada getting snow the next 2 weeks. Gfs is way more excited about it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: Long range snow totals for GFS and Euro showing a lot of Canada getting snow the next 2 weeks. Gfs is way more excited about it let it snow (in canada) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 3 Author Share Posted October 3 Looks like the cold front for the middle of next week is trending drier (good). Need to get some field work completed in western Howard County next week. Wouldn't mind a bit of rain, but a total washout would be no bueno. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 welp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 23 minutes ago, Paleocene said: welp I’m fine with a mild October. Nice weather for one, and cold Octobers here historically have led to warmer winters. Don’t ask me about the science behind it, but I’ve noticed it in the monthly data from KIAD when doing some analysis on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I’m fine with a mild October. Nice weather for one, and cold Octobers here historically have led to warmer winters. Don’t ask me about the science behind it, but I’ve noticed it in the monthly data from KIAD when doing some analysis on it. Agreed on the mild. I just want some rain. Last october was dry and gorgeous IIRC. And good to know about that correlation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: I’m fine with a mild October. Nice weather for one, and cold Octobers here historically have led to warmer winters. Don’t ask me about the science behind it, but I’ve noticed it in the monthly data from KIAD when doing some analysis on it. if I remember correctly - we had a Halloween snow in the NYC area last decade (the Army football game at West Point that day was a winter wonderland - and Central Park was just absolutely filled with downed branches after) - and that led to a winter with virtually no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 4 Author Share Posted October 4 3 hours ago, pazzo83 said: if I remember correctly - we had a Halloween snow in the NYC area last decade (the Army football game at West Point that day was a winter wonderland - and Central Park was just absolutely filled with downed branches after) - and that led to a winter with virtually no snow. You're thinking of the October 2011 event. Highly elevation dependent snow event for a good chunk of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. The rest of the winter was total garbage as you said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 Looks like maybe a quarter to a half inch of rain with the mid week cold front followed by more glorious early Fall weather late next week with high temps in the mid to upper 60s. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 Ensembles all build a respectable -NAO D10+. Right now only GEPS shows an eastern trough response concurrently, but maybe EPS and GEFS move that way? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 4 Author Share Posted October 4 59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ensembles all build a respectable -NAO D10+. Right now only GEPS shows an eastern trough response concurrently, but maybe EPS and GEFS move that way? This is out first real chance at a test to see if the D10 favorable pattern actually has a chance, or if it's just a pipe dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Ensembles all build a respectable -NAO D10+. Right now only GEPS shows an eastern trough response concurrently, but maybe EPS and GEFS move that way? Wouldn't mind seeing an h5 pattern like this in January. Spilt flow look with favorable NA and thermal boundary pressed just to the south.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 5 Author Share Posted October 5 55 minutes ago, CAPE said: Wouldn't mind seeing an h5 pattern like this in January. Spilt flow look with favorable NA and thermal boundary pressed just to the south.. Would you be considered at the zonal flow into western Canada? Would argue that's a Pacific puke setup to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Would you be considered at the zonal flow into western Canada? Would argue that's a Pacific puke setup to our north. In January? Follow the flow. That better be cold enough with negative h5 heights just to our north under a -NAO. Otherwise we might as well just give up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 12 hours ago, CAPE said: In January? Follow the flow. That better be cold enough with negative h5 heights just to our north under a -NAO. Otherwise we might as well just give up lol. We've had recent winters where the pattern wasn't the problem, it was just too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 54 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: We've had recent winters where the pattern wasn't the problem, it was just too warm. Sure. My original point was if we had the advertised h5 look on that run in January, there would be a chance. In this area, plenty can go wrong- and often does- even with a so-called epic look. No such thing as a cant miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 WB latest EURO seasonal thru March by month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 I’m intrigued 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Maybe I just hadn’t noticed yet, but overnight runs jumped on this coastal low giving us rain this weekend. Looking back, 18z Saturday Euro AI was the first run to pull it west enough for rain in the metro areas, but overnight 0z runs are really the first showing rain on the physics-based models. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 51 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Maybe I just hadn’t noticed yet, but overnight runs jumped on this coastal low giving us rain this weekend. Looking back, 18z Saturday Euro AI was the first run to pull it west enough for rain in the metro areas, but overnight 0z runs are really the first showing rain on the physics-based models. Especially the Euro. It basically washes out the weekend. Of course I have plans so it's definitely a lock. I thought droughts were dry lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Maybe I just hadn’t noticed yet, but overnight runs jumped on this coastal low giving us rain this weekend. Looking back, 18z Saturday Euro AI was the first run to pull it west enough for rain in the metro areas, but overnight 0z runs are really the first showing rain on the physics-based models. It wasn’t consistent, but even before Saturday, there were some ECAIFS runs last week that showed the coastal threat. I remain thoroughly impressed by what the ECAIFS can sniff out well before the physics-based models catch on. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 6 Author Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: Especially the Euro. It basically washes out the weekend. Of course I have plans so it's definitely a lock. I thought droughts were dry lol Would be a drought busting event. Bring it on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 2 hours ago, dailylurker said: Especially the Euro. It basically washes out the weekend. Of course I have plans so it's definitely a lock. I thought droughts were dry lol My weekend plans are all indoors, bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Would be a drought busting event. Bring it on. let it rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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