October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[Sundog]

45 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Safe to say the GFS has the weekend storm haha

Even the UKMET now gives us some precip and that thing had it going toward Bermuda on previous runs. 

[FPizz]

Just now, Sundog said:

Even the UKMET now gives us some precip and that thing had it going toward Bermuda on previous runs. 

Yeah, it was much closer to the coast.  Looks like the CMC didn't run.

[NJwx85]

Hoping for a dry weekend. Heading to Hershey.

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This winter will be fun with the models being awful. Lots of phantom snow coming 

Yeah, should be interesting.  I kind of said the same thing yesterday.  Lots of model frustration looming.

[anthonymm]

26 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Fully expecting 1/2" rainfall here late tonight into Wednesday morning.  No matter,  a nice October chill is on the way and I for one can't wait. 

First frost over a large area Thursday night and a freeze for NW cold spots.  I hope when I switch the central a/c off tomorrow that is it for the season.  Have had it on last several nights and I'm ready to have the windows open again.

 

 

I dont think we can safely put away the AC till mid November these days. Sigh.

[MANDA]

12Z GFS verbatim looks pretty threatening for some serious wave / erosion action up to NJ/LI.  Interested to see what the EURO / AI does shortly.  Back and forth we go.

[JerseyWx]

14 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I dont think we can safely put away the AC till mid November these days. Sigh.

I mean we haven't run the AC since like mid August.  Sleeping with the windows open ever since.

[Superstorm]

2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I mean we haven't run the AC since like mid August.  Sleeping with the windows open ever since.

Depends on where you live, how your living space is oriented and your comfort level.

 

•  

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I mean we haven't run the AC since like mid August.  Sleeping with the windows open ever since.

depends where you are and how you radiate at night...had a few AC nights here but not many since then

[anthonymm]

12 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I mean we haven't run the AC since like mid August.  Sleeping with the windows open ever since.

You're in the northwest suburbs. Here next to Manhattan that would be ludicrous with all the 70 degree uhi nights.

[Sundog]

22 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I mean we haven't run the AC since like mid August.  Sleeping with the windows open ever since.

Were you not in the mid to upper 80s the last few days?

[Stormlover74]

Euro's back to showing some rain for Sunday 

[Brian5671]

12z Euro is further north with the coastal...looks more like the GFS now

[forkyfork]

it comes down to whether or not this cutoff energy gets stuck and weakens the ridge

[JerseyWx]

42 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Depends on where you live, how your living space is oriented and your comfort level.

 

•  

 

37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

depends where you are and how you radiate at night...had a few AC nights here but not many since then

True, but we don't radiate extremely well here.  I guess I have a very good tolerance for warmth..

31 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

You're in the northwest suburbs. Here next to Manhattan that would be ludicrous with all the 70 degree uhi nights.

I can sleep easily on a 70 degree night, but I agree the UHI is way worse than out here.

21 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Were you not in the mid to upper 80s the last few days?

Absolutely was.  But it's been perfectly comfortable.

[Sundog]

The stingy UKMET that had the storm 5000 miles away on previous runs:

[Sundog]

RIP GGEM  

[bluewave]

Seems like the vorts will need to phase further NW  in order for the low to come further north like today. If the vorts phase further south,  then it will take the low OTS. This is why earlier runs were more OTS. We’ll need a few more runs like today in order to have some confidence in the wetter scenarios. I don’t think we have seen a phasing scenario work in our favor in quite some time.

[FPizz]

16 minutes ago, Sundog said:

RIP GGEM  

Did it just not run, or what it unplugged for good?

[bluewave]

The 12z Canadian is only showing up on the official site and is still OTS.

 

[Sundog]

8 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Did it just not run, or what it unplugged for good?

I see no Canadian products ran at 12z. I'm sure they're just glitching out. 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Hoping for a dry weekend. Heading to Hershey.

What highway are you taking?

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Canadian is only showing up on the official site and is still OTS.

You got RGEM? For tomorrow. 

[Dark Star]

Just now, Sundog said:

No Canadian products ran at 12z. I'm sure they're just glitching out. 

Government shutdown?

[forkyfork]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Canadian is only showing up on the official site and is still OTS.

 

more progressive cutoff energy than the models that show rain

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, Sundog said:

You got RGEM? For tomorrow. 

https://weather.gc.ca/mainmenu/modelling_menu_e.html

[Sundog]

Herps derps has at least half an inch for all tomorrow morning 

[MANDA]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Canadian is only showing up on the official site and is still OTS.

 

Wow, I've not looked at those maps in a long time !  Reminds me of the old DIFAX days.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Wow, I've not looked at those maps in a long time !  Reminds me of the old DIFAX days.

Yeah, we used to have the old Alden Difax machine back at college in the mid 80s. Sometimes we would come into the weather lab after the weekend and all the maps would be stuck inside. Even when the machine was working correctly, the model graphics weren’t very high detail. 

[Stormlover74]

Oh nam