October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[MANDA]

Yesterday: 1.23"

Two day event total: 1.71"

October: 3.27"

Y.T.D.: 37.65"

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I believe it.  In some places, open areas aren't part of the background landscape.

If we average the rate of the 90° day increase at EWR and LGA starting 30 years before the NYC ASOS was installed under the tree canopy, NYC would have closer to 28-29 days reaching 90° instead of the recent average of near 17-18. NYC had a few days less than EWR from 1961-1990. But a few more days than LGA did.

Our recent 16 year stretch since 2010 has had the highest number on 90° days. So it makes sense that EWR to LGA has had a steady increase in 90° days over this period. We can see how the NYC station near the castle was out in the open and not under a canopy of trees from photographs of the site in the decades prior to the 1990s.

Now it’s in the deep shade during peak heating hours when the trees are fully leafed out. There could even be a smaller cooling effect during the winter due to the trees and lower sun angle creating a smaller shade effect. 
 

[wdrag]

If a moderator can pin the new thread topic.  Thank you.  Guidance has us marginal wind advisory criteria... my greatest concern is fully leaved trees in the rain softened ground toppling (after yesterdays wide spread 1.5-2.5" rainfall. 

OBS for Halloween 2025 afternoon-evening scattered gusts 45+MPH w a few damage power outage reports from limbs/trees down

[Sundog]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There could even be a smaller cooling effect during the winter due to the trees and lower sun angle creating a smaller shade effect. 

 

Wouldn't being under the trees reduce radiational cooling, which still happens a bit in the park, especially with snowcover?

[hudsonvalley21]

42 minutes ago, wdrag said:

If a moderator can pin the new thread topic.  Thank you.  Guidance has us marginal wind advisory criteria... my greatest concern is fully leaved trees in the rain softened ground toppling (after yesterdays wide spread 1.5-2.5" rainfall. 

OBS for Halloween 2025 afternoon-evening scattered gusts 45+MPH w a few damage power outage reports from limbs/trees down

Thanks for the heads up. It’s important put it out there with the trick or treating and the possibility of a limb or tree coming down. Good to have a little extra awareness today.

[bluewave]

Most spots will finish with another warmer than average month since the warm ups continue to be more impressive than the cooldowns.

 

 

 

 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Thanks for the heads up. It’s important put it out there with the trick or treating and the possibility of a limb or tree coming down. Good to have a little extra awareness today.

NWS posted yesterday afternoon... its sort of marginal so I waited.  Still looks marginal to me but err on the safety and will await your reports. I'll be offline til 9PM tonight.

I am finishing up a summary post for yesterdays beneficial rain. It should. be out in 15 minutes. 

[SACRUS]

 

53 / 41 with 2.09 in the bucket - heaviest rain since Jul 14th for me.  Windy but clearing out later (slowly) today for the kids.   Mid - upper 50s Hallowwen.   Dry and nice fall weekend to dry out.   Next week euro has more rain Tue GFS a bit drier.  Overalll near - slightly above normal through the next 7 - 10 days.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 83 (2024)
NYC: 81 (1946/2024)
LGA: 83 (2024)
JFK: 78 (2024)


Lows:

EWR:  29 (1975)
NYC: 29 (1925)
LGA: 33 (1975)
JFK: 30 (1966)

 

Historical:

 

1846 - Eighty-seven pioneers were trapped by early snows in the Sierra Nevada Mountains that piled five feet deep, with 30 to 40 foot drifts. Just 47 persons survived the "Donner Pass Tragedy". (The Weather Channel)

1884: Brownsville, TX reported 15.71 inches of rain for the month, nearly five times normal. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1887: Weather records have been kept at Charlotte, NC since 1878. The only snow ever to occur there in October happened on this date. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1899: A Caribbean hurricane crossed Cuba then moved north and made landfall at the North Carolina/South Carolina border. The hurricane became extra-tropical in Virginia, then curved across southeast Pennsylvania and moved into New England and the Canadian Maritimes. The highest wind gusts were measured to 84 mph at Cape Henry, VA, 82 mph at the Delaware Breakwater, DE and 60 mph at Norfolk, VA. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) Richmond had 1.71 inches of rain on this date in 1899. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC)


1925: Record low October temperature readings were set from northern New England down to the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio Valley. Record lows included: Van Buren, ME: 1°, Garfield, VT: 2°, Pittsburg, NH: 4°, Houghton Lake, MI: 7, International Falls, MN: 12, Peoria, IL: 14, Rockford, IL: 14, Madison, WI: 16, Alpena, MI: 17, Burlington, VT: 17°, Syracuse, NY: 20°, Flint, MI: 20, South Bend, IN: 20-Tied, Dubuque, IA: 25-Tied, Allentown, PA: 22°, Avoca, PA: 22°, Springfield, IL: 22, Rochester, NY: 23°, Fort Wayne, IN: 23, Indianapolis, IN: 24, Buffalo, NY: 25°, Grand Rapids, MI: 25, Wilmington, DE: 25°-Tied and New York (Central Park), NY: 29°-Tied. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1950 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. for Halloween. The temperature soared to 83 degrees at Minneapolis MN, their warmest reading of record for so late in the season.  Other record highs included: Charlotte, NC: 85°, Raleigh, NC: 85°, Richmond, VA: 85°, Washington, DC: 85°, Chicago, IL: 84°, Rockford, IL: 84°, Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 84°, Greensboro, NC: 84°, Athens, GA: 84°-Tied, Omaha, NE: 83°, Springfield, MO: 83°, South Bend, IN: 83°, Columbus, OH: 83°, Beckley, WV: 83°, Roanoke, VA: 83°, Cleveland, OH: 82°, Lexington, KY: 82°-Tied, Allentown, PA: 81°, Harrisburg, PA: 81°, Cincinnati, OH: 81°, New York (LaGuardia Airport), NY: 80°, Dayton, OH: 80°, Bristol, TN: 79°, Asheville, NC: 79°, Elkins, WV: 77°-Tied, New York (Central Park), NY: 76°-Tied, Bridgeport, CT: 73° and Buffalo, NY: 72°. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) (The Weather Channel)

1963: The 28-day dry streak came to an end at Philadelphia, PA. The streak still stands as the longest in their history. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1965 - Fort Lauderdale, FL, was deluged with 13.81 inches of rain, which brought their rainfall total for the month of October to an all-time record of 42.43 inches. (30th-31st) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1971: Snowstorm with 8 inches in Caribou, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1987 - Halloween was a wet one in the southwestern U.S. Heavy rain in southern California resulted in numerous mudslides. Weather-related auto accidents resulted in three deaths and twenty-five injuries. Mount Wilson CA received 3.14 inches of rain in 24 hours. Yakima WA reported measurable rainfall for the first time since the 18th of July. The 103 day long dry spell was their longest of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty-two cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 19 degrees at Cleveland OH was a record for October, and morning lows of 21 degrees at Allentown PA and Bridgeport CT tied October records. Nine cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Phoenix AZ with a reading of 96 degrees. Showers made Halloween a soggy one in the southeastern U.S. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Halloween night was a soggy one in New England. Showers in the northeastern U.S. produced more than an inch and a half of rain in six hours at some locations. An invasion of cold arctic air brought an abrupt end to a week of "Indian Summer" type weather in the Great Lakes Region, and brought snow and subzero wind chill readings to the Northern Plains. In Colorado, Alamosa was the cold spot in the nation with a record low of two degrees above zero, and a Halloween night storm brought 3 to 6 inches of snow to the Front Range, and 5 to 10 inches to the nearby foothills. Icy streets around Denver the next morning made for a rather spooky commute. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1991: Pueblo CO reported 16.5 inches of snow during the month to set a record for October. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

1991: A severe winter storm, dubbed the Great Halloween Mega Storm, struck the upper Midwest. Minnesota bore the brunt of this storm. Blizzard conditions occurred with winds gusting frequently to 40 and 50 mph. By the time it was all over on November 2nd, Duluth recorded 37 inches, Minneapolis 28 inches, International Falls 18 inches and 11.2 inches in 24-hours at Sioux Falls, SD, their earliest heavy snowfall of 6 inches or more and snowiest October on record. For Duluth and Minneapolis, the snow amounts set new all-time records for the greatest amount of snow in a single storm. The storm gave these two cities nearly half of their average seasonal snowfall.


1993: Southern Plains cold wave continues. 43 record lows set. 28 degrees in Corpus Christi Texas was the coldest ever in October or November at that location. Brownsville recorded 35 degrees to also set a monthly record.  (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1994: A commuter airliner crashed near Roselawn, IL, killing all 68 people on-board. The National Transportation Safety Board concluded that icing on the aircraft's control surfaces led to the crash. The board found that ice on the ailerons disrupted the air flow around them and caused the plane to roll upside down. The crash led to research that has led to more accurate icing forecasts for aviation, leading to safer flying. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

2000: October is third driest since 1870. The month ended as the third-driest October in Baltimore, and the second driest ever in Washington, since record keeping began. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA) October is normally the driest month in Baltimore, averaging just 2.98 inches of rain. But Baltimore-Washington International Airport has seen only three days of measurable rain since Sept. 26. and two of those days delivered only 0.01 of an inch each. All told, only 0.08 of an inch of rain has fallen at BWI since Sept. 26. That was 32 days ago. The only Octobers that were drier were in 1924, when barely 0.05 of an inch fell and October 1963, when only a trace of rain was detected at the airport. Baltimore's records go back to 1870. Washington, DC, has had just 0.02 inches of rain since Sept. 26. Only October 1963 was drier, with just a trace of rain. Early relief is not likely. October is third driest since 1870.
(Source: Baltimore Sun)  Richmond, Virginia had the driest October and also the driest of any month on record with only 0.01 inches precipitation.  (Ref. Richmond Weather Records)  An F2 tornado destroyed the Oconto, NE, community center while 19 children/4 adults were sheltered in the basement. Every building along main street was destroyed/damaged.  (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)


2014: Snow began falling early Halloween morning in the northwest suburbs. People in the city saw some flakes. It hasn't snowed on Halloween since 1993, and it was only a trace amount of snow that year. But .10 inches of snow was recorded at O'Hare just before 9 a.m. Friday, marking the first measurable snowfall on Halloween in Chicago history. The average date of the first measurable snowfall in Chicago is Nov. 16. (Ref.NBC Channel 7News CHICAGO(WLS)

 

 

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Wouldn't being under the trees reduce radiational cooling, which still happens a bit in the park, especially with snowcover?

the park is wrong 100% of the time with temps, someone needs to pin that already. 

[SACRUS]

 

A year ago we had record warmth with hights in the low - mid 80s.

[SACRUS]

 

The recent cool down has yielded a max daily departure of only -4 to -6 one day.

[Sundog]

45 minutes ago, FPizz said:

the park is wrong 100% of the time with temps, someone needs to pin that already. 

I know that if I park under a tree in winter, many times cars out in the open (depending on temps) will be covered in frost while my car isn't.

So the thermometer being under trees must be increasing nighttime temps at the park in winter, or any other good radiational cooling nights (you would think.) 

 

[Sundog]

49 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

The recent cool down has yielded a max daily departure of only -4 to -6 one day.

No one said this has been a frigid month. Scratch the four torch days in the first week of the month and most places around here had a normal to slightly below normal anomaly, even going by the 1981-2010 averages. 

Central Park had only one daily high barely touch 70 since the 8th of the month, that is impressive any way you slice it. 

[steve392]

Anyone have rainfall totals for the area?  Nws have it available yet?  I swear the link disappears from my phone all the time. 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, steve392 said:

Anyone have rainfall totals for the area?  Nws have it available yet?  I swear the link disappears from my phone all the time. 

https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/304-2025/PNSOKX/74b37e63c6504ffd155dfded0d51212a

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

I know that if I park under a tree in winter, many times cars out in the open (depending on temps) will be covered in frost while my car isn't.

So the thermometer being under trees must be increasing nighttime temps at the park in winter, or any other good radiational cooling nights (you would think.) 

 

Bluewave has all the answers about central park.  But yes, that happens to our cars as well in my driveway under my tree vs the one not under it even though they are only maybe 15' apart.

[Brian5671]

58 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Anyone have rainfall totals for the area?  Nws have it available yet?  I swear the link disappears from my phone all the time. 

might be in the storm thread

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

might be in the storm thread

I already posted it

[psv88]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

I know that if I park under a tree in winter, many times cars out in the open (depending on temps) will be covered in frost while my car isn't.

So the thermometer being under trees must be increasing nighttime temps at the park in winter, or any other good radiational cooling nights (you would think.) 

 

Yes the trees act as a blanket and prevent the sun warmth from radiating out. 

[donsutherland1]

November is on track to finish with a mean temperature of 58.4° in New York City. That is 0.5° above normal and 1.5° above the earlier 1981-2010 baseline.

Highs will reach the middle 50s in much of the region tomorrow and Sunday. Lows will mainly be in the lower and middle 40s in New York City and 30s outside the City.

In the long-range, the guidance suggests that an AO+/NAO+ regime could develop the first week in November. As has often happened with the loss of strong blocking, a milder regime could develop late in the first week of November or shortly afterward. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +11.28 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.064 today. The NAO was -1.321. 

 

[weatherpruf]

7 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

A year ago we had record warmth with hights in the low - mid 80s.

yes, i was fishing that day and brought a bucket with a bag of ice, usually fine for this time of year, but it quickly melted and i had to empty the lunch cooler out and stuff the fish in there.

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, Sundog said:

I know that if I park under a tree in winter, many times cars out in the open (depending on temps) will be covered in frost while my car isn't.

So the thermometer being under trees must be increasing nighttime temps at the park in winter, or any other good radiational cooling nights (you would think.) 

 

It’s tough to determine that NYC would be cooler on calm clear nights if the sensors were in a clearing instead of under the trees. Since the park is in the middle of one of the strongest heat islands in the country like LGA. So that makes the tree effects on radiational cooling nights harder to determine. 

We do know that the winter low temperature is warming a little slower than LGA. Plus LGA is often a few degrees warmer for the lows. So the lows have been warming at a faster rate at LGA than NYC. LGA is right on the water which keeps it warmer during the winter also.

If we look at the average minimum temperatures this past winter with the tree growth vs 1961 with less, LGA is still a little warmer than NYC. So not much of a difference. Even with the lack of trees Central Park wasn’t radiating much better relative to the surrounding stations. The average winter low was still within a degree of LGA.

 

Data for December 1, 2024 through February 28, 2025 mean min temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	32.6
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	30.2
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	30.0
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	29.3
NY	PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL	ICAO	29.3
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	28.0
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	27.7
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	27.5

 

Data for December 1, 1961 through February 28, 1962 mean min temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	27.6
NY	NEW YORK LAUREL HILL	COOP	27.4
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	27.4
NY	NEW YORK FLOYD BENNETT FIELD	WBAN	27.2
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	27.1
NY	HEMPSTEAD MALVERNE	COOP	26.3
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	26.0
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	26.0
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	25.5
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	25.3
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	25.1

[donsutherland1]

New York City finished with an October mean temperature of 58.5°, which was 0.6° above normal. 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Oct:

 

ISP: +2.7 (5.06)
EWR:  +1.8   (3.9)
JFK:  +1.2 (3.99)
NYC: +0.6 (4.08)
LGA: +0.1 (4.24)

[FPizz]

16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Oct:

 

ISP: +2.7 (5.06)
EWR:  +1.8   (3.9)
JFK:  +1.2 (3.99)
NYC: +0.6 (4.08)
LGA: +0.1 (4.24)

Do you have Easton PA and Somerville NJ?  

[SACRUS]

18 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Do you have Easton PA and Somerville NJ?  

 

Oct:

PHL:  +2  (2.02)
Easton: +1.9 (5.13)
Somerville SMQ: +1.6 (1.88)

[FPizz]

7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Oct:

PHL:  +2  (2.02)
Easton: +1.9 (5.13)
Somerville SMQ: +1.6 (1.88)

Thank you!