Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[CoastalWx]

Ideally we could nuke this near ACK and rip it west to get everyone winds. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Bun me now....this is just anecdotal, nothing more....but I do recall 1995 flipping on a dime from mild to cooler and stormy around this time.

[jbenedet]

GFS is warm core. With origins in northern Bahamas in the 7th inning of hurricane season—not a surprise.

Baseline expectation should be sub tropical type system forming.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ginxy is gonna do naked Gibbous moon tide dances

Just lays down on the beach parking lot and body surfs his way to Taylor Swift’s beach house. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just lays down in the beach parking lot and body surfs his way to Taylor Swift’s beach house. 

Poor Taylor...the mere sight of that may end her career faster than Kelce's.

[jbenedet]

There is also an interaction with TC Jerry to watch. Very dynamic setup overall. 
 

Nice break from the boredom.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ideally we could nuke this near ACK and rip it west to get everyone winds. 

Is that even possible?

[weatherwiz]

GFS not backing down. Would be one heck of a coastal flooding event too, particularly southwestern sound. 

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The GGEM has come much farther north after being a southern outlier. 

The GFS is a pretty significant damaging wind event so worth watching. 

Inland as well . We roar( we hope)

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bun me now....this is just anecdotal, nothing more....but I do recall 1995 flipping on a dime from mild to cooler and stormy around this time.

I always remember the flip being near Halloween. 

[ineedsnow]

6Z EPS also looking much better!! Please please happen.. 

[dendrite]

Still pretty inverted inland

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dendrite said:

Still pretty inverted inland

We drive to the beach if we have to.. the weather has been beyond boring

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still pretty inverted inland

I haven't looked this morning but yesterday the GFS BUFKIT soundings had like 60 knots at the top of the mixed layer for IJD/HFD/etc

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I always remember the flip being near Halloween. 

I thought it was after Opal....I remember the frist snow event for my area was a rain to snow mess in latter November, which lest a few inches of slush.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is that even possible?

No lol

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is that even possible?

But if it comes close enough to tighten the gradient then maybe gusts come in higher. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I haven't looked this morning but yesterday the GFS BUFKIT soundings had like 60 knots at the top of the mixed layer for IJD/HFD/etc

That was more for ineedsnow/N of Pike. 

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I haven't looked this morning but yesterday the GFS BUFKIT soundings had like 60 knots at the top of the mixed layer for IJD/HFD/etc

6z GFS has 57 knots for IJD and 54 knots HFD

[tunafish]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

0.74”

0.13", up to 2.82" since 8/1.  I think you've eclipsed me at this point. 

Not that it makes any difference other than from a pure numerical standpoint.

[dendrite]

Goofus has a little window down there to mix some of that LLJ to the sfc Mon morn before winds start backing and advecting the upper 40s in. My only concern is the LLJ starts weakening as it starts coming ashore.

Nice little “blizzard” loop on that sfc track though. This would’ve been fun in a couple months. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, tunafish said:

0.13", up to 2.82" since 8/1.  I think you've eclipsed me at this point. 

Not that it makes any difference other than from a pure numerical standpoint.

1.00” on the nose through the tipper with more incoming. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

6z GFS has 57 knots for IJD and 54 knots HFD

That’s a lotta damage 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s a lotta damage 

definitely something to watch given trees are still quite full with leaves...but alot of leaves and trees will come down 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah this time of year it’s not as wedgy, but you’ll want winds more ENE vs NE I think. 

[weatherwiz]

The rain is NUTS in Branford right now. Even a bit gusty 

[weatherwiz]

Wonder if we end up seeing any lightning/thunder from Guilford on east across the shoreline 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The rain is NUTS in Branford right now. Even a bit gusty 

Just a little light rain here at Pit2.    I guess every little big helps.

 

[CoastalWx]

Can see a couple different boundaries on radar. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Goofus has a little window down there to mix some of that LLJ to the sfc Mon morn before winds start backing and advecting the upper 40s in. My only concern is the LLJ starts weakening as it starts coming ashore.

Nice little “blizzard” loop on that sfc track though. This would’ve been fun in a couple months. 

Yea, the loop will be over western CT in a couple of months.