Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[GrandmasterB]

18 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I’m not putting a lot of weight on the 78 hour NAM thermals. Could certainly end up being right, but it’s not close to the euro output. 

[GrandmasterB]

Ukie has measurable down to the MD line. My goal for this system (IMBY) is two inches. Seems plausible at this time.

[Voyager]

11 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Ukie has measurable down to the MD line. My goal for this system (IMBY) is two inches. Seems plausible at this time.

I've been telling my circle of friends and family that I'm thinking 3-6.

[ChescoWx]

Latest European 

[Blizzard of 93]

12z Euro shows a plowable Advisory event type of snow event for the LSV this run for Tuesday.

[Blizzard of 93]

A compromise blend of the 12z globals would make most of us happy on Tuesday.

[Superstorm]

Looks like we all get a little from this event Tuesday.


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[AccuChris]

12z Euro AI shows a nice widespread event Tuesday


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[Ruin]

36 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

12z Euro shows a plowable Advisory event type of snow event for the LSV this run for Tuesday.

lol oh god 

[Voyager]

All the globals show a decent to good hit for the region, with some of them taking quite a liking to Schuylkill County. The traditional Euro shows the least, and even that puts down 3 inches here. The NAM on the other hand...

[Voyager]

DT's first call.

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Where is your backyard again?

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Hanover 

[mahantango#1]

31 minutes ago, Voyager said:

DT's first call.

Write it down, case closed. Now all we need are is accurate start times.

[ChescoWx]

European ensemble snow greater than 1 inch probability has increased a bit at 12z with the 50% line down to Philly

[canderson]

Would this stick to any paved surface? 

[Blizzard of 93]

16 minutes ago, canderson said:

Would this stick to any paved surface? 

Sun angle is not an issue in early December.

[WmsptWx]

16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Sun angle is not an issue in early December.

Lol no but warm ass asphalt is 

[Blizzard of 93]

In @canderson Heat Island of downtown Harrisburg, I’ve heard him claim snow is not sticking, even though 99% of roads in the area have caved, lol!

[Blizzard of 93]

Snow will certainly be sticking to all surfaces if the rates on the 18z GFS end up close to reality.

Great run for most of CTP.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Snow will certainly be sticking to all surfaces if the rates on the 18z GFS end up close to reality.

Great run for most of CTP.

Looks like @Voyager would be near the bullseye if this verifies.

[Superstorm]

I like the continued SE and east shifts


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[Voyager]

7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Looks like @Voyager would be near the bullseye if this verifies.

It's been that way for a few various runs now. That rarely happens.

[Voyager]

CTP already throwing numbers out for Tuesday. My forecast got much more wintry, too.

Monday Night

A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday

Snow, possibly mixed with rain. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 37. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

[Ruin]

all my local mets are just showing models now pushing to far north showing mostly rain after some mix at the start. of course they would jump on those  models

[canderson]

CTP has 2-5” in my forecast 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

CTP has 2-5” in my forecast 

An 1" for me.

[Jns2183]

all my local mets are just showing models now pushing to far north showing mostly rain after some mix at the start. of course they would jump on those  models

If they forcasr a mix and we get 2"-3", people are happy for a surprise snow that puts them in a "Christmas spirit". If they forcast 2"-3" and we get a slushy mess their viewers, especially the ones who are stupid enough to get there kids all excited so basically a whole lot of them are pissed. It's the stay at moms with pissed off kids that rule the snarky social media comments in that circumstance.

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