Tropical Storm Imelda

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Yeah no models had this slow motion early on which is why they all showed the ULL pulling it onshore Monday night. At this point its so slow hunberto might be north east of it by the time it gets to the northern Bahamas amd yank it due east from there. 

Pretty bad performance by the gfs and euro on this one

And their ensembles. At relatively short range. 

[cardinalland]

5 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Yeah no models had this slow motion early on which is why they all showed the ULL pulling it onshore Monday night. At this point its so slow hunberto might be north east of it by the time it gets to the northern Bahamas amd yank it due east from there. 

Pretty bad performance by the gfs and euro on this one

to be fair fujiwara is a pretty hard dynamic to work out, this setup was never gonna be an easy one

[shaggy]

11 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

to be fair fujiwara is a pretty hard dynamic to work out, this setup was never gonna be an easy one

I agree but the short term motion prior to any Fujiwara was also very wrong on those models. Nome of them has this thing stalled out in the southern Bahamas and near Cuba for 2-3 days straight

[Coach McGuirk]

Wouldn't a slower storm interact with the high pressure system over NE Canada moving in and steer it west like Sandy?

[WxWatcher007]

Sure ain’t something you see everyday  

[Coach McGuirk]

00z GFS is well out to sea.  Oh well?

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: stays OTS like every other UKMET and every Icon has done.

 Reminder: Coincidentally or not, the UKMET and Icon were the two best models by far for Ian by being the furthest to the right/SE coming into SW FL. 
 

0Z UKMET

ROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L        ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N  76.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 28.09.2025    0  22.0N  76.4W     1005            31
    1200UTC 28.09.2025   12  23.2N  76.9W     1003            35
    0000UTC 29.09.2025   24  24.6N  76.7W     1000            32
    1200UTC 29.09.2025   36  26.7N  77.1W      998            43
    0000UTC 30.09.2025   48  28.5N  77.4W      994            42
    1200UTC 30.09.2025   60  29.2N  77.3W      991            38
    0000UTC 01.10.2025   72  29.0N  75.9W      989            41
    1200UTC 01.10.2025   84  29.7N  73.4W      987            47
    0000UTC 02.10.2025   96  30.3N  69.6W      985            57
    1200UTC 02.10.2025  108  31.6N  64.5W      984            54
    0000UTC 03.10.2025  120  33.5N  59.8W      986            67
    1200UTC 03.10.2025  132  34.8N  57.0W      992            48
    0000UTC 04.10.2025  144  36.3N  56.0W      995            43
    1200UTC 04.10.2025  156  37.7N  54.4W      999            39
    0000UTC 05.10.2025  168  41.4N  49.5W      999            41

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z UKMET: stays OTS like every other UKMET and every Icon has done.

 Reminder: Coincidentally or not, the UKMET and Icon were the two best models by far for Ian by being the furthest to the right/SE coming into SW FL. 
 

0Z UKMET

ROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L        ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N  76.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 28.09.2025    0  22.0N  76.4W     1005            31
    1200UTC 28.09.2025   12  23.2N  76.9W     1003            35
    0000UTC 29.09.2025   24  24.6N  76.7W     1000            32
    1200UTC 29.09.2025   36  26.7N  77.1W      998            43
    0000UTC 30.09.2025   48  28.5N  77.4W      994            42
    1200UTC 30.09.2025   60  29.2N  77.3W      991            38
    0000UTC 01.10.2025   72  29.0N  75.9W      989            41
    1200UTC 01.10.2025   84  29.7N  73.4W      987            47
    0000UTC 02.10.2025   96  30.3N  69.6W      985            57
    1200UTC 02.10.2025  108  31.6N  64.5W      984            54
    0000UTC 03.10.2025  120  33.5N  59.8W      986            67
    1200UTC 03.10.2025  132  34.8N  57.0W      992            48
    0000UTC 04.10.2025  144  36.3N  56.0W      995            43
    1200UTC 04.10.2025  156  37.7N  54.4W      999            39
    0000UTC 05.10.2025  168  41.4N  49.5W      999            41

Euro pretty much on an island 

[Coach McGuirk]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro pretty much on an island 

I never go against the Euro. 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

I never go against the Euro. 

Unlike prior two runs, the 0Z Euro stays away from US.

 Also, unlike some hurricane model runs yesterday that curved back into SC/GA, the 0Z runs all stayed offshore that area.

[Coach McGuirk]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Unlike prior two runs, the 0Z Euro stays away from US.

She's just trying to fit in with the crowd. 

[WxWatcher007]

22 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

I never go against the Euro. 

 

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Unlike prior two runs, the 0Z Euro stays away from US.

 Also, unlike some hurricane model runs yesterday that curved back into SC/GA, the 0Z runs all stayed offshore that area.

 

6 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

She's just trying to fit in with the crowd. 

The Euro is just another model. Nowhere near its glory of a decade ago lol. With a well defined center now and slower motion, along with a weaker SE cutoff and stronger Humberto, it’s harder to see that escape route being closed. 

[Coach McGuirk]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

The Euro is just another model. Nowhere near its glory of a decade ago lol. With a well defined center now and slower motion, along with a weaker SE cutoff and stronger Humberto, it’s harder to see that escape route being closed. 

So you're saying there's a chance?

[NorthHillsWx]

Feel VERY confident this has trended to just a rip current/beach erosion threat. Bermuda still needs to watch 

[hawkeye_wx]

This thing really got stuck in the Bahamas, and has been slow to develop.  It has barely moved in the last 24 hours.

[GaWx]

 All major 6Z models including hurricane models stay away from the US. As of the 5AM advisory, it finally started moving a little faster and that’s continuing now on the 8AM with SLP dropping to 1002 mb:

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS, WITH WINDS SOON INCREASING OVER THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 77.3W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[wthrmn654]

I maybe wrong but to my eye it looks like it's going be north and west of forecast from nhc based on the that solid line at bottom before next offical track update. No? 

[Maxwell03]

9 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Feel VERY confident this has trended to just a rip current/beach erosion threat. Bermuda still needs to watch 

Indeed

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 77.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

@WxWatcher007

[WxWatcher007]

Not much to say right now as Imelda continues to gradually (and slowly) organize. 

As the NHC notes, with the change in track forecast and further south position, this may end up in a more favorable position relative to the trough and SST/OHC, which could open the door for more intensification once this develops an inner core and pulls away from the coast. I think Imelda has an outside chance at becoming a major in the coming days. 

SHIPS continues to show meaningful probabilities for RI. 

[hawkeye_wx]

It appears Imelda is fighting some dry air getting pulled in from the west.

[Coach McGuirk]

Oh well, it's a dud and out to sea. 

[WxWatcher007]

Recon has been in Imelda and although it has not intensified much (there are stronger FL winds showing up now), it is confirming that the satellite appearance of more organization near the center is legit.

Note that curved band of deep convection near the center, and how it is trying to wrap upshear. We'll see if the shear currently present keeps this organizational trend in check. 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 2:20Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Name: Imelda
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2025 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 20
Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 1:53:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.74N 77.09W
B. Center Fix Location: 27 statute miles (44 km) to the SE (142°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,420m (4,659ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 160° at 3kts (From the SSE at 3mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 31kts (35.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix at 1:28:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 104° at 46kts (From the ESE at 52.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 75 nautical miles (86 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix at 1:30:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 28kts (32.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix at 1:58:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 344° at 38kts (From the NNW at 43.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix at 2:04:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) which was observed 75 nautical miles (86 statute miles) to the NE (45°) from the flight level center at 1:30:00Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
 

RAGGED EYEWALL 50% COVERAGE

[NorthHillsWx]

Intensity guidance keeps ticking up. Watch this be our 4th straight major hurricane on the season 

[Coach McGuirk]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Intensity guidance keeps ticking up. Watch this be our 4th straight major hurricane on the season 

But everything is out to sea. 

[LVblizzard]

The 0z Canadian gets Imelda close enough to Humberto that they end up merging and becoming one storm. If that happens, assuming the storm is still tropical, how do they decide which name the storm retains?

[Coach McGuirk]

13 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

The 0z Canadian gets Imelda close enough to Humberto that they end up merging and becoming one storm. If that happens, assuming the storm is still tropical, how do they decide which name the storm retains?

That has never happened.  Two tropical cyclones never merge together. 

[qg_omega]

GFS hits Bermuda

[Boston Bulldog]

5 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

That has never happened.  Two tropical cyclones never merge together. 

There are many examples of larger tropical cyclones absorbing a nearby smaller tropical cyclone. Pretty fundamental dynamic process

[NorthHillsWx]

Imelda looks like a bona fide Bermuda threat