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Invest 94L—80% 2 day and 90% seven day odds of development


WxWatcher007
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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still feeling our way around solutions. The 06z Euro brings future Imelda onshore with a similar progression to its other prior runs—much faster than what the 00z had.

2ZgBXAC.png

Overnight ensembles showed more offshore solutions so it will be interesting if the 6z ensembles follow with the OP in showing mostly landfalls

AL94_2025092600_ECENS.png

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After looking at all the data and the runs, even though they are inconsistent, I still feel the most likely outcome is a slow approach to the SE coast and either making it inland or staying just off-shore, but then slowing down/stallings and dumping a lot of rain...
The big story is going to be the rain/flooding.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Man 06z GFS op tries to bury 94L across interior South Carolina. Looks like a potent 850 and 700 mb  jet just pouring subtropical Atlantic moisture into the foot hills. :yikes:

Yikes. 6-10" for the areas hit hardest by Helene. Fortunately the GEFS is much further east, so an outlier at this point 

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