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Hurricane Humberto

WxWatcher007

By WxWatcher007,
in Tropical Headquarters

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted

The tropics are active now with three systems being monitored. This is the thread for the current central Atlantic cherry.
 

OBiEj4G.png
 

There has been a strong cross guidance signal for days that a central Atlantic wave will develop. The models have actually been quite robust with this wave once it develops, in similar fashion to the rapidly intensifying Gabrielle.

The AI ensembles, which have done a particularly good job sniffing the environment out, are particularly strong. Now, while the majority of guidance turns this out to sea without threatening any land masses, the amplitude and timing of a trough in the coming week will determine the eventual evolution, along with where this develops. I expect this to develop first if both waves develop. 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted 
 The 12Z UKMET threatens Bermuda:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 22.0N  61.0W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 26.09.2025   96  22.5N  61.5W     1010            35
    0000UTC 27.09.2025  108  22.5N  62.5W     1008            37
    1200UTC 27.09.2025  120  23.1N  63.5W     1007            38
    0000UTC 28.09.2025  132  23.7N  64.1W     1005            45
    1200UTC 28.09.2025  144  24.5N  66.1W     1003            41
    0000UTC 29.09.2025  156  25.6N  66.8W     1000            43
    1200UTC 29.09.2025  168  27.2N  66.4W      997            45
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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
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Posted 
Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave 
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde 
Islands show some signs of organization.  Environmental conditions 
are forecast to become more favorable for development by tomorrow, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Wednesday or 
Thursday while the system moves west-northwestward to 
northwestward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

12Z UK just W of Bermuda
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L        ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N  53.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932025

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 24.09.2025    0  19.7N  53.9W     1014            33
    0000UTC 25.09.2025   12  20.6N  56.0W     1013            32
    1200UTC 25.09.2025   24  21.3N  57.4W     1012            33
    0000UTC 26.09.2025   36  21.7N  57.9W     1009            34
    1200UTC 26.09.2025   48  21.7N  58.5W     1007            35
    0000UTC 27.09.2025   60  22.0N  59.1W     1005            42
    1200UTC 27.09.2025   72  22.0N  60.3W     1003            44
    0000UTC 28.09.2025   84  22.2N  61.0W     1000            44
    1200UTC 28.09.2025   96  22.8N  63.0W      998            47
    0000UTC 29.09.2025  108  23.7N  64.5W      994            49
    1200UTC 29.09.2025  120  24.5N  66.3W      992            52
    0000UTC 30.09.2025  132  25.6N  67.8W      991            56
    1200UTC 30.09.2025  144  27.3N  68.4W      991            54
    0000UTC 01.10.2025  156  29.1N  67.8W      984            59
    1200UTC 01.10.2025  168  31.9N  66.6W      972            61

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NorthHillsWx

NorthHillsWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This one has a good shot of becoming our third consecutive major. It’s looking well on its way to being designated a TC in the next 24 hours. 

It looks like a TD already. Modeling is catching up, hurricane models are very aggressive. Also I feel very strongly this wave is a fish storm. East coast surfers are having a hell of a summer

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
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Posted

Close to MH status by day 5. 

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
500 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025
 
Satellite data indicates that Invest 93L over the central tropical 
Atlantic has now developed into Tropical Storm Humberto. Visible 
satellite imagery shows that throughout the day, the low-level 
center has become well-defined, with persistent and organized deep 
convection mainly located over the eastern side of the system. 
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 
data-T/2.5 35 kt. DPRINT and DMINT Objective intensity estimates 
from UW-CIMSS range from 31 to 35 kt. Using these data, the 
initial intensity is set to 35 kt.

The system is estimated to be moving west-northwestward at 300/13 
kt, but this is of low confidence since the center has only recently 
formed.  A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is 
anticipated through the next several days along the southwestern 
periphery of a mid-latitude ridge. Towards the end of the forecast 
period, an approaching trough moving offshore the east coast of the 
United States will erode the ridge and allow the system to turn more 
northward. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty with the 
forward speed and cross-track spread of the system. This is 
increasingly apparent beyond day 3 as there are complex steering 
components with timing differences in the global models, including 
the approaching trough and potential binary interaction with Invest 
94L. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids given some 
of these uncertainties, and there is lower than normal confidence in 
the track forecast.

The storm is within a favorable environment for strengthening with 
warm sea surface temperatures near 29C and moist mid-level RH 
values. The system will be dealing with some moderate westerly wind 
shear for the next day or so that will likely cause an asymmetric 
storm structure. EC and GFS SHIPS guidance depict the shear slightly 
weakening in the day 2 to 4 time frame, and with increasing 
divergence aloft, a slightly greater rate of strengthening is shown 
at that time. The latest NHC forecast follows these trends and lies 
near the consensus intensity aids. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 20.1N  54.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 20.9N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 21.6N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 22.0N  57.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 22.5N  58.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 22.9N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 23.6N  60.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 26.0N  64.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 29.1N  67.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

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No surprise but officially expected to become our next major now. 

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025
 
The cloud pattern of Humberto has changed little in organization
over the past several hours.  Some rudimentary convective banding 
features are evident but the cold cloud tops are rather fragmented 
at this time.  Upper-level outflow is  being restricted over the 
western portion of the circulation, at least partially due to the 
outflow from disturbance 94L located near Puerto Rico.  The current 
intensity estimate is set at 40 kt in agreement with a recently 
received scatterometer pass.
 
The storm center is not yet very well-defined so the initial motion
is a rather uncertain 300/10 kt.  Over the next few days, Humberto 
should be steered generally west-northwestward to northwestward on 
the southwestern side of a subtropical mid-level high pressure area. 
The steering scenario for the tropical cyclone will likely become 
more complicated in 2-3 days due to the interaction with the 
developing system 94L to the west.  The official forecast track is 
quite similar to the previous one, and roughly in the middle of the 
guidance.  However, due to the likely complications in the evolution 
of the steering flow, there is lower than normal confidence in this 
track forecast.
 
Global models suggest that there will be some relaxation in westerly 
vertical wind shear over Humberto in the coming days. This, along 
with very warm ocean waters and a moist mid-level air mass, should 
lead to strengthening.  The system will probably become a hurricane 
in a couple of days, and then strengthen into a major hurricane.  
The official intensity forecast is in reasonable agreement with the 
simple and corrected model consensus, including the latest FSU 
Superensemble forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 20.7N  55.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 21.4N  56.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 21.9N  57.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 22.4N  57.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 22.9N  58.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 23.4N  60.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 24.0N  62.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 26.3N  66.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 30.1N  68.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Blake
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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

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Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 25 2025
 
Humberto continues to gain strength while moving slowly over the
central Atlantic.  The system is exhibiting a growing CDO feature
with cloud tops to near -70 deg C, along with some convective bands
over the eastern portion of the circulation, where most of the
lightning flashes are currently occurring.  The advisory intensity
is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with subjective Dvorak
classifications from both TAFB and SAB and a blend of objective
satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS.
 
The storm's forward speed is quite slow with a motion estimate of
only 320/3 kt.  Steering currents are not strong at this time since 
the subtropical ridge to the north of Humberto is quite weak.  
Global model forecasts show the ridge strengthening with time and in 
a few days the cyclone should move somewhat faster toward the  
northwest and turn northward in the vicinity of 70 W longitude. By 
the end of the forecast period, after Humberto passes north of the 
ridge, the system should begin accelerating northeastward.
 
Cirrus motions indicate that the vertical wind shear over Humberto
has lessened, and the SHIPS model output does not show the shear
increasing much through 72 hours.  Sea surface temperatures are
expected to be very warm along the projected path of the cyclone,
and the system should remain embedded in a moist air mass.  The
official forecast continues to call for significant strengthening
during the next few days.  This is consistent with the latest
corrected consensus, HCCA, forecast which also shows Humberto
intensifying into a major hurricane this weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 22.2N  57.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 22.4N  57.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 22.7N  58.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 22.9N  59.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 23.4N  61.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  28/1200Z 24.3N  63.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 25.4N  65.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 29.0N  69.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 32.6N  69.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

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Posted 
Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 26 2025
 
Humberto continues to rapidly strengthen this morning. Infrared 
satellite images show a ring of deep, cold inner core convection 
wrapping around an eye that has recently emerged in conventional 
satellite imagery. Objective satellite intensity estimates are 
quickly climbing, and the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt for 
this advisory, in best agreement with recent UW-CIMSS ADT and AiDT 
estimates. A recent ASCAT-B pass over the hurricane was used to
update the 34- and 50-kt wind radii of Humberto.
 
The rapidly improving satellite structure, along with conducive
environmental and oceanic conditions, suggest that significant to
rapid intensification (RI) is likely to continue in the short term.
In fact, the latest DTOPS guidance shows a greater than 80 percent
chance of Humberto strengthening by 30 kt in the next 24 h. Thus,
rapid intensification is explicitly forecast here, and the NHC
intensity forecast has been raised during the first 48-72 h of the
forecast period. This forecast most closely follows the regional
hurricane models and the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA), on the
higher end of the guidance envelope. By early next week, there are
indications that deep-layer shear will increase over Humberto, and
some weakening is shown beyond 72 h. Note that as Humberto gains
latitude, the wind field is forecast to expand while the hurricane
curves around Bermuda at days 4-5.
 
The hurricane is moving slowly northwestward at about 4 kt.
Humberto should move toward the west-northwest and northwest during
the next couple of days along the southern periphery of a
subtropical ridge over the western and central Atlantic. As this
ridge slides eastward, the hurricane is forecast to recurve around
this feature, turning northward and then accelerating northeastward
early next week. The models are in very good agreement on this
sharp recurvature over the western Atlantic, and only minor
adjustments were made to the latest NHC track forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 22.3N  57.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 22.5N  58.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 22.9N  59.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 23.3N  61.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 24.1N  63.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 25.3N  65.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 26.8N  66.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 30.6N  68.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 34.5N  66.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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