2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[Met1985]

Fun times.

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[Tyler Penland]

7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah and that would stick around for a good week especially with what the Euro is showing. That crap would be super thick.

I believe Brad Panovich called that the "glacier solution" which is a perfect descriptor of what 1-2" snow, 3-5" sleet and a half inch of ice would create.

[Met1985]

Just now, Tyler Penland said:

I believe Brad Panovich called that the "glacier solution" which is a perfect descriptor of what 1-2" snow, 3-5" sleet and a half inch of ice would create.

Yep I agree also Tyler. That stuff would stick around forever. 

[Tyler Penland]

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Yep I agree also Tyler. That stuff would stick around forever. 

Make for some freakin' fun sledding, though.  

[Met1985]

7 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Make for some freakin' fun sledding, though.  

No freaking kidding! Talk about a rocket ship!

[BretWx]

Ice, ice, baby. Thinking of that amount of ice and then the possibilities of power outages and then going into low single digits. They need to have a plan in place for some shelters ASAP. 

Going to wait until Friday but will probably bring my mom to the house here. 

[BooneWX]

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[BooneWX]

All of us across WNC are about to find out just how strong the trees affected by Helene really are

[buckeyefan1]

[NavarreDon]

I’m not sure that run of the GFS is accurate with the track of the low. It’s moving the HP kinda strangely. I think based on history and synoptics the low track may be a bit further south before making the turn. My guess (only a guess) is that for the Mnts. there is a bit more snow & a bit less sleet with the system. Of course the warm nose will have its say in this.


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[BlueRidgeFolklore]

2 minutes ago, BretWx said:

GEFS mean took a bump north as well: 

Those ensembles are still all over the place. Still a long ways to go with this one.

[GoAPPS]

52 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Fun times.

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We better pray that doesn't verify.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

The UK looked improved and expanded the snow line southward into NC. It's interesting how strong of a wedge it showed for a model that always underestimated the strength of the CAD. Something to watch going forward. Baby steps.  

[Tacoma]

How can we have such a strong H to the north and the storm is trying to trend nw?  doesn't make sense to me, I thought if anything that strong H would  shove the storm south some.  

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

How can we have such a strong H to the north and the storm is trying to trend nw?  doesn't make sense to me, I thought if anything that strong H would  shove the storm south some.  

More phasing means a stronger cyclone, the stronger the cyclone, the more latitude it gains to move poleward. It’s also plowing into an increasingly transient high. A big thing that’s changed the past few days is that our high isn’t as “locked in” as we thought. It’s scooting into a less and less favorable position as the storm progresses.

[NavarreDon]

More phasing means a stronger cyclone, the stronger the cyclone, the more latitude it gains to move poleward. It’s also plowing into an increasingly transient high. A big thing that’s changed the past few days is that our high isn’t as “locked in” as we thought. It’s scooting into a less and less favorable position as the storm progresses.

Sometimes the model can be to quick to break down the ridge. I’m curious to see what the euro shows & more importantly what sort of tale the ensembles tell.


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[Tyler Penland]

WSW from MRX and FFC. I'd expect GSP to follow suit this afternoon.

[franklin NCwx]

15 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

More phasing means a stronger cyclone, the stronger the cyclone, the more latitude it gains to move poleward. It’s also plowing into an increasingly transient high. A big thing that’s changed the past few days is that our high isn’t as “locked in” as we thought. It’s scooting into a less and less favorable position as the storm progresses.

Went from a 1050 over iowa to a weaker one over Vermont. Also dealing with a complete phase instead the Baja low coming across on its own

[BretWx]

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 1 and 6 inches and ice accumulations between
  four tenths and one inch possible.

* WHERE...Northeast Georgia, Western North Carolina, and the South
  Carolina Upstate.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree
  limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages. Ice and
  snow covered roadways will become treacherous and impassable.
  Widespread power outages are likely due to the weight of the ice
  and snow on tree limbs and power lines. The outages could last for
  days in some areas. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest snow and sleet accumulations are
  possible north of I-40. Highest ice accumulations are possible
  across the southern mountains of North Carolina, the mountains of
  northeast Georgia, and the mountains of South Carolina.

[BretWx]

That ice accumulation callout is terrifying. Up to 1in?!

[Met1985]

Apparently the Euro is broken.  

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, Met1985 said:

Apparently the Euro is broken.  

Imagine that 

[Met1985]

Euro looks like crap right off the bat.

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[BretWx]

ICE (ALARM EMOJI)

[Met1985]

Border counties turn to rain by Sunday morning. This run is a dumpster fire.

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[buckeyefan1]

Bless its euro heart 

[Met1985]

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

Bless its euro heart 

That would be catastrophic to the grid.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

5 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Euro looks like crap right off the bat.

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That HP in the northeast said adios! 

[buckeyefan1]

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

That would be catastrophic to the grid.

Very much so 

[Met1985]

Rainer for the SW mountains and the other side of TN.

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