September Discobs 2025

[kgottwald]

Not a drop of rain so far in Vienna. 

Can we call this a bust yet?

[JenkinsJinkies]

10 minutes ago, kgottwald said:

Not a drop of rain so far in Vienna. 

Can we call this a bust yet?

It's supposed to really start late afternoon.

[IronTy]

37 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

It's supposed to really start late afternoon.

Big blob of moderate stuff moving our way from Richmond right now.  

[87storms]

Need as much rain from this event as possible because that’s one helluva block setting up afterwards. Those tropical systems have no chance here with that monster moving in. Looks like an extended period of nice weather coming up.

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Need as much rain from this event as possible because that’s one helluva block setting up afterwards. Those tropical systems have no chance here with that monster moving in. Looks like an extended period of nice weather coming up.

If this busts it's really gonna hurt, and I'm guessing there's 0 chance for the models to do a 180 on the Imelda walk backs?

[WxUSAF]

Radar looks like crap. Really ready for a day of a uniform precip shield.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Radar looks like crap. Really ready for a day of a uniform precip shield.

Why is it that we need to have the planets align in order for that to happen? It is not supposed to be this hard to get decent rains around here.

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Why is it that we need to have the planets align in order for that to happen? It is not supposed to be this hard to get decent rains around here.

Short answer is La Niña. Second answer is it’s still the warm season. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Short answer is La Niña.

This has transcended previous niñas though, there has not been a prolonged wet pattern since 2022. Every opportunity since then to end the overarching pattern has either resulted in it paradoxically intensifying (spring 2023 and last spring) or relatively short reprieves that end with it roaring back (this past June and July).

Question is will the end of this niña finally open the floodgates or did the triple dip niña shift the atmosphere some more and now this is permanent for us?

[CAPE]

Getting some light rain here. Better stuff to the s/se. Hopefully some of the heavier showers will shift a bit NW over the next couple hours.

[Ji]

Radar looks like crap. Really ready for a day of a uniform precip shield.

The hrrr hated this storm and the euro loved it too much . Bust

[IronTy]

Moderate rain down here in Calvert now.  

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

The hrrr hated this storm and the euro loved it too much . Bust

This is a disaster.  Right back to drought.

[bncho]

there's no rain. it's been drizzle every now and then but i doubt it adds up to any more than 0.1 inches

[JenkinsJinkies]

What went wrong? We keep getting these "day of the event" fails...

[CAPE]

Glad I got that unexpected storm Wed night that produced an inch. No rain Thurs or Friday, when it was actually a pretty high probability. Tonight doesn't look great, despite the forecast for a half to three quarters overnight. 0.12" so far today.

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

What went wrong? We keep getting these "day of the event" fails...

Still in Summer mode. We generally don't get widespread area-wide rains this time of year without some direct tropical influence. Hit or miss showers/storms still predominate. That will change pretty quickly going forward, although we could just go dry for a time.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still in Summer mode. We generally don't get widespread area-wide rains this time of year without some direct tropical influence. Hit or miss showers/storms still predominate. That will change pretty quickly going forward, although we could just go dry for a time.

After this there's nothing until at least the 2nd weekend of October.

How likely is it that we make a run at last year's rainless streak record?

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

After this there's nothing until at least the 2nd weekend of October.

How likely is it that we make a run at last year's rainless streak record?

How long since you have had rain? Hasn't been rainless everywhere in our region. Again, summer mode means convection which means hit or miss. I have had a little over 3" for the month here. If it goes dry for a couple weeks given we will be in October, no big deal for me. I can water the new grass, which is the only concern.

[JenkinsJinkies]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

How long since you have had rain? Hasn't been rainless everywhere in our region. Again, summer mode means convection which means hit or miss. I have had a little over 3" for the month here. If it goes dry for a couple weeks given we will be in October, no big deal for me. I can water the new grass, which is the only concern.

You misunderstand, you mentioned that it could go dry for a time and I mentioned that models show nothing after today until around the 11th and given how far out that is it's fantasy range. Budding niña autumn plus a monster high pressure ridge means very little in the way of rain. Given our luck these past few years these ridges are self sustaining and can park themselves over us for weeks. Like October into November of last year, there was zero rain accumulation for exactly 5 weeks.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Radar looks like crap. Really ready for a day of a uniform precip shield.

If this were winter the screeching from Ji would be unreal.

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You misunderstand, you mentioned that it could go dry for a time and I mentioned that models show nothing after today until around the 11th and given how far out that is it's fantasy range. Budding niña autumn plus a monster high pressure ridge means very little in the way of rain. Given our luck these past few years these ridges are self sustaining and can park themselves over us for weeks. Like October into November of last year, there was zero rain accumulation for exactly 5 weeks.

And so what? Growing season is coming to an end and it hasn't been bone dry over the past month or so (for most). Is what it is. Would you rather it be dry in the Fall, or Jan into Feb?

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If this were winter the screeching from Ji would be unreal.

If this were winter there would’ve been 10 pages of weenie crashout preceding this.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

And so what? Growing season is coming to an end and it hasn't been bone dry over the past month or so (for most). Is what it is. Would you rather it be dry in the Fall, or Jan into Feb?

I'm happy to see some nice dry weather. The area has had plenty of rain. We have months of rainy weather incoming. Let's enjoy some sunny, low dews, fall weather. Great for hiking and checking out the fall color. I'm glad this system is headed out to sea. I can live without humid, swampy weather all week, again.  

[bncho]

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If this were winter the screeching from Ji would be unreal.

ji's a changed man. he was actually optimistic about the feb 19-20 thing which is super ironic

[SnowtoRain]

0.28", 2.43" month, 34.78" ytd. Pretty underwhelming event.

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm happy to see some nice dry weather. The area has had plenty of rain. We have months of rainy weather incoming. Let's enjoy some sunny, low dews, fall weather. Great for hiking and checking out the fall color. I'm glad this system is headed out to sea. I can live without humid, swampy weather all week, again.  

A dry October with plenty of Sunny days and cooler temps would be outstanding. Bugs on the decline, leaves changing color, and perfect for hiking.

[JenkinsJinkies]

48 minutes ago, CAPE said:

And so what? Growing season is coming to an end and it hasn't been bone dry over the past month or so (for most). Is what it is. Would you rather it be dry in the Fall, or Jan into Feb?

The thing is that it compounds over time. Yes growing season being over minimizes impact but if the pattern persistence follows the same trajectory it has since 2023 then we might still be in this mess come spring facing similar event failures. Doubly so if we get another underperforming winter or full blown nonwinter.